But this rising wedge gives a little more bearish mojo back.
Look at this top. Seriously, is this the look of a bull market taking a breather, looking for footing to launch from?
Or is it the look of a Bronto whose fundamentals of environment have changed and it is in it's death throes...thrashing it's neck back and forth, up and down, as it remembers and hopes for the return of it's glory, while being angry knowing that he is going down.
Interesting reading the blogsphere....so many people finding "excuses" to be bullish, to be balanced. How many retail are out there somehow thinking that the new SEC rules will protect them, that they can buy and hold without worry of a huge stopout.
The set-up is perfect. Bears and Bulls both getting crushed. This market is nearly impossible to "trade". You are in the fighting ring with an injured and angry Bronto. He is going down, but can still damage you.
And a great book I read on my trip to Japan (sitting on planes, trains, buses) is called The Tipping Point. Great statistics on how little changes can results in huge changes in direction. This has applicability to the stock market.
I share your pain with the state of these markets. I resolved to take 75% of my trading stake & 100% of our retirement into precious metals (mostly physical, but with a few trusts in the IRAs), miners and cash.
ReplyDeleteRight now at 20% PMs.
I think your ellipse will prove out. The gov't is desperate to prop this thing into November, I believe it will fail near the major Bradley date in August.
I think the only sane thing to do is to either be short and long and cash in with appropriate moves, or to stay short and just wait, with time and larger direction on your side.
ReplyDeletethe elipse, btw, is terrific. thanks.