Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy New Year!

Thanks for stopping in.  No rant today.   No charts.

Just a big

Happy New Year!!!

Thursday, December 30, 2010


OK so I sold my QID a few days ago
Went long ES yesterday (and stopped for a breakeven)

Jokingly, those are bearish signs.

No time to chart

BUT ES backtested and rejected it's PRS177

EUR/USD backtested and rejected on its PRS 100

DX just looks like a blatant shake out move, DX is the USD futures.  

Took some futures shorts and will stop tightly and move stop to breakeven if I get even 3 points of move my way.   That causes lots of whipsaw, but that is the way it is.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bought the Dip, Fear Factor, and The PM Exuberance Index

I bought the dip on the PRS on ES.

A break of this PRS will be very bearish, and in this manipulated market, of course the HBB guys are using State Pension funds to keep buying the market up.    Everyone wants an up market, except reality and the Piper who will some day collect his due.

For now, bought the dip, but will probably close for a measley couple hundred dollar run.   Playing very small, 1 contract.  

Bought DNN yesterday at 3.29, it is moving nicely upward.

I don't want to hold too many positions over the New Years, since that complicates the P&L tax filings by having to keep track of crossover positions.    And the gains and losses and figuring the basis for the purchase IS NOT usually computer generated.   Esp. with options, and futures, every trading service tracks them differently and ultimately the ball is left 100% in your hands to reconcile everything.

Next year, apparently, the brokers are going to be required to keep track of the basis and report it to the Fed Gov.    Keep in mind, that doesn't mean they will necessarily report it to you in same or usable fashion, although  I suspect that they would.   However, past history shows that the brokers never really cared much about your tax filing.

PMI-E is showing a blow off shooting star type "top" far outside the Bollinger Band, this should signal a drop on precious metals.   Other instances have been shown a drop after the BB was popped

Humans operate as "a pack" a Lesson in Global Pyschology

Humans operate as a Pack, or a herd some may say.

There is a mass global psychology, kind of like the cooperation in a bee hive.   Although I think that perhaps bees are a little better behaved.

Humans are complex, it is not easy to be able to ponder the mysteries of the universe, dive into our own DNA and see things that can't be seen, and yet be chock full of all of the emotions, fears, greed and a host of animalistic instincts, all while making sure to convince our own ego that we are "good people".

Those who are studying pyschology might agree this is a good example of "Pack behavior", Brett Farve who used to play for the Pack, by the way, was fined $50,000 by a sports commission for alleged sexual harassment.    This is an example of how important Packs are to us.   This was a legal matter of supposed sexual harassment.   At the very least a civil matter.

Why does society allow sports authorities to "take care of their own".    Simple, because sports teams are our packs, and any pyschologist will tell you that packs are VERY important to human beings.   It really makes no other sense, and flies in the face of all Federal and State laws, and the Constitution.

It is funny how humans go so far out of the way to distance themselves from other animals, at least in their own minds.

Wait-- THIS IS A TRADING BLOG--what the heck are you talking about steveo!!  ??

If the answer to that is not obvious to you after some more thought, then nothing I say could possibly make you see the relevance.   If that is the case, you are blocking the truth from yourself in a way.

Comments?  C'mon


Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Bear Flag or Support Zone

The PRS 177 has been one of the strongest things that "still works" as the HAL 20000's take over the trading world.  

Look at the OTIS GAP on the dollar yesterday.    Huh?   People going to flock into Yuan and throw the dollar under the bus?    Maybe only as a shake out prior to a dollar run up.

The more things change the more they stay the same.    With a few geopolitical tensions and currency wars, it seems obvious to me that a flight to big daddy Dollar will occur.     Look at today's move up, correcting the gap down.   OTIS, but it is the market we are given, you choose to participate or not.

Check DNN for a breakout.

Sure it's tough to buy the dollar after this impulsive move up.....that is a tough trade to take, think about it.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Slow week -- ONE:VIX

This is likely to be a slow week in the markets.

Unless I see something big coming up, I will resume posting next year.

Consider 2X USD bull fund, I want to buy one that trades end of day only.

Happy New Year, this market doesn't need me right now, and it will still be there when I come back, it will be going up and down. 


One chart from Darell, this is simply Vix inverted i.e. 1/Vix

Reversal point or is this a "bullish" cup and handle?   Anything is possible in this new world that we live in.

Check the MACD, bullish, but it tanked in the past while bullish looking MACD.   I don't like the standard setttings on MACD, they are too popular, too gamed.

Sunday, December 26, 2010


EEM/SPY has just snook down.  Sign that risk trade is off.

Precious Metal Exuberance Index (my own creation of course)

Very toppy, but no basis to short.

15 of 16 indicators on Breakpoint Trades on intermediate and long term show bullish trend intact, strengthening.   


Cool link above to a pay site, posting their stuff a bit late but free.

One can see that in the past sentiment has been this bullish, and yet the indices slogged forward for months.

And a piece from Market Watch....the ten worst performances.   Seems strange those are the worst.
Martin Weiss’ Safe Money Report, Martin D. Weiss: -6.0%
Peter Eliades’ Stockmarket Cycles, Peter G. Eliades: -8.1%
TimingCube, F. Minssieux: -9.0%
Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor, Bernie Schaeffer: -11.0%
Crawford Perspectives, Arch Crawford: -12.4%
Brown’s Investment Signals Mid-Term Model, Stephen Brown: -12.7%
Sy Harding’s Street Smart Report, Sy Harding: -13.8%
China Stock Digest, James Trippon: -15.9%
Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, Paul Goodwin: -17.1%
Doug Fabian’s ETF Trader, Doug Fabian: -21.5%

Elliot Wave and CycleMan are not in here, although they have professed a "Deadly Bearish Big Picture" and that this is only a Bear Market Rally.
I am throwing in the towel, from now on I am only Bullish and will buy every dip.    NOT!

Boatload o' Charts

If you like this stuff sign up as a follower --- its easy, its at the top left for today.
And drop a comment or 2 or 4

Also, 3 DOWN on the LEFT, I added a sign-up by email, no one signed up yet except me, it works and alerts you of a new post..

I have a few indicators here.   The Fear Factor is showing a possible chopstick reversal. Fear Factor 2 is showing some similarity to past years.

My "Toy Index", Polaris, Harley, Winnebago is showing strong bullish-it sentiment.   Whooo Hooo let's party like it's 1999 again!   I don't see any immediate shorting opportunities on these charts, but they just show extreme exuberance.  See the charts.  Please drop a comment.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Complete Frustration -- Ready to Throw in the Towel, Except Ready to throw Euro Under the Bus

In response to a comment by Gold Gerb I wrote

I know, I was surprised to see that comment.   However, trading the indices has just been terrible, shit I closed out a trade last week with $120 profit when "before" HAL 20000 was turned on I had many many $1000 days, and even a few $5000 days in the index futures.   $120 f'n bucks and closed out because of scared of losing it.   Really it just ain't worth it.    If you can trade all day, and follow the best setups from Breakpoint Trades and other cup and handles and such...I think you can bank coin, but I don't have the time to monitor those, especially the thin stocks that also move the best and turn on you like a viper.    Now that I threw in the towel.....that must be a top!

Trying a new indicator, Simple Moving Average Envelope, no opinion yet.   And Fear Factor just keep pushing the Bollinger higher....that is what a Santa rally looks like.   i will say it again, in these markets you need to be either super smart or allow yourself to be dumb.    The smart get gamed.

The Euro has seen big retraces, over 61 Fibo, Buy and hold doesn't work (or sell and hold is really what I mean), nor does tilting at windmills. This PRS channel is pretty good, although wide--if we get a 5 month walk down, it will probably stay in that channel.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010


The eclipse was really cool. As it came back, it truly was blood red, although the camera refused to work, I guess just not enough light. The last one on the solstice was in the 1600's, but for the next one, you only have to wait 80 years. Better eat some healthy food!

ES and Euro

I have said it before and will say it again.

It's all about the Euro. Europe is likely to unravel faster than anyone.

England is part of Europe, although they may do better because they can devalue their currency (default on their debts, in a nice orderly way).

China could be the black swan in this whole mix though, that is a big herd if it starts running.

Monday, December 20, 2010

ES possible pattern, but I wouldn't stay too bearish.

HBB lives for their bonuses, and it is easy to push this market around on low volume.   Dabama likes that too.  

Google has a new thing, summary of word usage in books back to 1500.   Their database is far from complete, but so far the results are very interesting.   Language and the human mind and brain are incredibly interlinked.   It may be one of the reasons that humans were able to outpace the other animals in terms of population density and overall spread.


Posted on TF Metals

My preps: I bought a large property, high ground with good view planes.   Own well, tested pure but will all put in a whole house RO system.   Own sewer system, works great.    2 wood heating sources with heat exchangers, gas heat through my own propane tank 500 gallons, also heat through a water to air heat pump with heat exchanger in deep on site pond and backup electric through Outback inverters and battery bank with PV solar electric.  Connected to grid but could live pretty normally with no electric grid, no city water, no city sewer, no city gas supply.    Moving from a corrupt island, that will be the worst possible place to be when SHTF, to a highly educated mainland county that is basically country land, yet within 20 minutes of anything you need to buy, and with people who are watchful of "outsiders" and I won't be one of the outsiders.
My first purchase was video surveillance and then a 24 rifle gun safe bolted into the concrete floor.
This is somewhat extreme of a move, but basically was able to do it all for under $300k.    And it is actually a really nice place.
Also, I made this 'Prep List"which was first started as a nuclear event preparedness, it will probably take you 5 weeks to put it all together, and you don't have to do it all at once.
Also, just bought this really really good telescope, keep perspective on things while SHTF. Check out pictures here.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

List of 1000 ETFS

This is a work in progress.  There are almost a 1000 ETF's in this list

It is always a hassle to try to find an ETF when you see some quick trade opportunity.

This list might help.   Sorted by

  • Fixed Income
  • global Equity
  • US Equity
  • Commodity
  • Forex

And with a further column on whether or not it is leveraged.

The list is available as a download under the "Real Data" page of this blog.

10 Minute History of the US

10 Minute Chronology of US Financial Times

WHOA! 260 visitors and 1 single little comment (big comment actually, from RDL, a great blogger), but c'mon folks....chime in, look alive :-)
I updated the list below from a December post I did and got a bunch of good chime in, if there are important things I missed, please comment and I will add.

For me the little summary below was a great "view from 20,000 feet".  Imagine that....less than 200 years ago, the British were rampaging through Washington with troops and burning the White House.

If you like this stuff....please sign up as a follower, its a simple click on the right hand side.   And you can add Hawaii Trading to your Google Reader, it's good stuff---aggregates your favorite reading material.

1800: New York's population is 60,000
1803: President Thomas Jefferson purchases Louisiana (which extended from the Mississippi to the Rocky Mountains, from Montana to New Orleans) from Napoleon, thus essentially doubling the size of the USA
1812: the USA declares war on Britain
1814: British troops storm Washington and burn the Capitol and the White House
1817: the New York Stock Exchange opens in Wall Street
1819: an economic depression hits the farmers of the south and the west
1824: only 5% of adult USA citizens vote in the presidential elections
1826: James Smithson bequeaths his fortune to founding the Smithsonian Institution "for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men"
1837: an economic depression follows a wave of speculation
1839: Yellow fever kills 12% of Houston's population
1844: the USA has over 5,000 kms of railway (3,000 in Britain, 2,000 in Germany, 500 in France)
1851: The population of the USA is 20,067,720 free persons and 2,077,034 slaves
1854: the USA forces Japan to sign a trade agreement ("treaty of Kanagawa") which reopens Japan to foreigners after two centuries
1858: a telegraph wire is laid at the bottom of the ocean between Ireland and Canada
1858: the USA stock market crash spawns an international market crash
1859: The Carrington Solar Flare lights up the night sky and creates havoc with telegraph lines1860: Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln is elected president although he gains only 40% of the popular vote
1861: civil war erupts between the northern ("unionist") states and the southern ("confederate") states (26.2 million versus 8.1 million)
 1862: John Rockefeller founds a company to refine oil (later renamed Standard Oil)
1864: all the major powers agree at the Geneva convention on rules for the treatment of prisoners of war
Apr 1865: the Union, led by general Ulysses Grant, defeats the Confederates, slavery is abolished (13th amendment of the constitution) and blacks are given the right to vote (370,000 Union citizens and soldiers and 258,000 Confederate citizens and soldiers have died)
1865: president Lincoln is assassinated
1867: The price of oil drops to $2.40/barrel from the peak of $13.75 a barrel
1869: Goldman Sachs is founded by German immigrant Marcus Goldman and (in 1882) Goldman's son-in-law Samuel Sachs
1871: the National Rifle Association is founded
1873: an economic depression causes rise in unemployment and bankruptcies\
1873: the USA adopts the gold standard
1876: General Custer and his troops are massacred by Sioux Indians at Little Big Horn
1882: the USA bans Chinese immigrants for ten years and forbids existing Chinese immigrants from becoming USA citizens
1885: white miners kill 28 Chinese workers in Wyoming
1890: The work week in the USA is 60 hours
1890: Congress passes the Anti-Trust Act to protect against monopolies
1892: John Muir founds the "Sierra Club", the first environmental organizations
1893: an economic depression causes unemployment and bankruptcies, The Panic of 1893 in which the Federal Treasury was nearly out of Gold.
1900: A six-room house costs $3,000 to buy
1900: Life expectancy in the USA is 47.3
1900: the USA's population is 76 million
1902: Willis Carrier invents the air conditioner
1902: a female journalist, Ida-Minerva Tarbell, exposes Standard Oil's dubious practices
1907: The Bankers Panic of 1907 October 23, 1907
1908: William D'Arcy discovers oil in Iran
1909: The USA forces the dissolution of Standard Oil, an event that creates Chevron, Mobil, Amoco, etc
1910-1911 Stock Market Panic after enforcement started of the 1890 Sherman Anti-Monopoly Act-- "Corrupt business is good profitable business :-)"
1912,  JP Morgan testified before the Pujo Committee, a subcommittee of the House Banking and Currency committee. The committee ultimately found that a cabal of financial leaders were abusing their public trust to consolidate control over many industries: the partners of J.P. Morgan & Co. along with the directors of First National and National City Bank controlled aggregate resources of $22.245 billion.1913 The Federal Reserve Bank is created.  Control of the Money Supply was given to crooked banksters.
1913: John Rockefeller is worth $212 billions, 1/44th of the USA economy, and establishes the Rockefeller Foundation "to promote the well-being of mankind throughout the world"
1913: Ford installs the first assembly line (at Highland Park, which later becomes the murder capital of the world, by the way)
1913: 2% of USA citizens control 60% of the national product (Morgan and Rockefeller alone control 20%)
1914: World War I begins
1914: The Federal income tax is introduced
1916: Merrill Lynch is founded
1916: William Boeing founds a company to manufacture airplanes
1918: an epidemics of influenza kills 20 million people worldwide (500,000 in the USA)
1918: the first world war ends: 2 million Russians, 1.8 million Germans, 1.3 million French, 1.1 million Austro-Hungarians, 0.9 million Britons, 0.6 million Turks and 0.5 million Italians are dead.
1920: alcohol is outlawed ("Prohibition")
1924: boom of the stock market
1927: Pan American World Airways is founded
1928: first daily passenger flight between Los Angeles and San Francisco
1929: Herbert Hoover is elected president
1929: stock markets crash around the world ("great depression")
1929: the richest 1% owns 40% of the nation's wealth, while workers' productivity has increased 43% since 1919
1930: the Bank of Italy is renamed Bank of America
1930: the GDP of the USA falls 9.4% from the year before and unemployment reaches 8.7%
1931: The price of oil plunges to $0.15/barrel
1931: the Empire State Building, the tallest building in the world of all times, opens in New York
1931: Gambling is legalized in Las Vegas
1932: between april 8 and july 8 stocks fall 34%
1932: 10,000 banks have failed since 1929, GDP has dropped 31% since 1929, the stock market has lost almost 90% of its value from boom to bust, and unemployment reaches 23.6%
1933: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is created to insure deposits in banks and thrift institutions
1933: the Prohibition is repealed

1936: The economic ideas of John Maynard Keynes are applied in the USA
1940: Karl Pabst invents the jeep
1941: Japanese attack Pearl Harbor (Hawaii) and the USA enters world war II
1941: Roosevelt authorizes a project to develop an atomic bomb (later renamed the Manhattan Project)
1944: the world's monetary system is anchored to the dollar and the dollar to gold, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are created ("Bretton Woods agreement")
1945: Germany surrenders and is divided in a Western and a Soviet area, while Soviet troops occupy Eastern European countries
1945: the USA drops two atomic bombs on Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and World War II ends
1946: George Marshall envisions a plan to promote the economic recovery of European democracies
Tinfoil hat Alert J
1947: the first widely publicized sighting of a UFO
1947: The USA sets up the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
1948: the Jews are granted their own country in Palestine: Israel
1951: the first commercial computer is built, the Univac
1956: Dwight Eisenhower signs the Federal Aid Highway Act to build a nation-wide network of freeways
1957: 4.5 million babies are born in the USA, the highest number in its history (the "baby boomers")
1958: Bank of America adopts the credit card
1958: the USA's gross national product is 50% of the world's national product
1960: The ratio of debt to personal disposable income is 55%
1962: Warren Buffett acquires Berkshire Hathaway, the beginning of his multibillion dollar empire
1964: Bear Stearns acquires Orkin Exterminating Company, the first major leveraged buyout transactions
1969: the computer network ArpaNET is born in the USA (it will be renamed Internet in 1985)
1971: the USA imports more oil than it exports
1971: The USA pulls out of the Bretton Woods agreement of fixed exchange rates and forces foreign currencies to float
1973: the USA, defeated, leaves Vietnam after killing close to 2 million civilians and 1 million soldiers, and losing 58,000 men
1973: members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) impose an oil embargo against the West and oil prices skyrocket (the first "oil crisis"), thus precipitating a world depression (october)
1973: the World Trade Center is inaugurated in New York, the world's tallest skyscraper
1974: the Sears Towers open in Chicago, the world's tallest skyscraper
1975: The USA accounts for 26.3% of world GDP
1978: the USA abandons the gold standard
1979: the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan and the USA organizes an Islamic resistance led by Osama Bin Laden
1979: an accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stops development of new nuclear power plants in the USA
1980: billionaire Ted Turner launches CNN, the first cable tv devoted to world news
1980: The private equity industry raises $2.4 billion
1980: the value of gold peaks at $850 an ounce
1980: Inflation peaks at 13.5%
1981: newly elected president Reagan trades hostages for arms with Iran, helps Saddam Hussein's Iraq against Iran, and authorizes funding and training of Islamic terrorists led by Osama Bin Laden to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan
1982: the USA government breaks up the largest company in the world, AT&T, worth $60 billion, because it has become a monopoly
1982: Unemployment peaks at 10.8%
1985: between 1977 and 1985 consumption of oil in the USA drops 17%, imports drop 50%, and imports from the Middle East drop 87%
1985: the dollar declines against European and Japanese currencies (it will decline 50% in three years)
1987: Alan Greenspan is appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
1987 the largest one day percentage drop ever of the us stock market. 508 points 22.61%1989: The private equity industry raises $21.9 billion
1990 US Banking Crisis

1991: The first economic recession ever strikes California
1993: Islamic terrorists try to blow up the World Trade Center
1994: Netscape, the company founded by Marc Andreesen, goes public even before earning money and starts the "" craze and the boom of the Nasdaq
1995: the Federal Reserve's chairman Alan Greenspan describes the stock market's behavior as "irrational exuberance"
1997: The average yearly income of a USA citizen is $29,000 whereas the average income of a Mexican is $8,000 and the average income of a Nigerian is $900
1998: Osama bin Laden, from his base in Afghanistan, wages a holy war against the USA by bombing two USA embassies in Africa
1999: allows people to create their own "blogs" (personal journals)
2000: More than 50% of USA citizens own stocks
Jan 2000: the Dow Jones reaches an all-time high of 11,723
2000: the economic expansion in the USA is the longest in the history of the US
2000: the NASDAQ stock market crashes, wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth
2000: George W Bush becomes president on a technicality, even though Clinton's vice-president Al Gore wins the majority of votes
2001: the USA enters a recession, ending the longest economic expansion of its history
2001: 3% of the USA population is in jail
2002: USA stock markets crash, following corporate scandals, the third consecutive year of decline
Oct 2002: The Dow Jones falls to 7,286, 37.8% lower than its peak of january 2000
2003: the USA has a record 2 million inmates
2004: the dollar falls to an all-time low against the euro (1.30)
2005: Bernard Ebbers, former Worldcom's CEO, is sentenced to 25 years in jail, capping a string of corporate scandals
2006: Alan Greenspan is retires from chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
2006: Exxon Mobil posts the largest profit of any company in USA history
2006: Warren Buffet donates $37 billion to charity, the largest donation ever
2006: Enron's CEO Jeffrey Skilling is sentenced to 24 years in prison
2007: China overtakes the USA to become the world's second largest exporter and overtakes Canada to become the main exporter to the USA
2007: after crashing due to the crisis of sub-prime mortgage lenders, the USA stock market sets a new record high
2007: the USA dollar falls to 1:2 to the British pound and to an all-time low of 1.50 to the euro and is worth less than a Canadian dollar for the first time in three decades
2007: at the end of the economic expansion of the 2000s the median income of USA families has declined from $61,000 to $60,500
Dec 2007: The US
jan 2008: the stock market collapses, triggering similar collapses around the world
mar 2008: the price of gold hits $1,000 for the first time ever and oil passes $110 a barrel, while the dollar sets another all-time low against the euro (1.56) and dips below 100 yen (a drop of 6.5% in less than three months), home prices plunge 9.1%, the Eurozone overtakes the USA as the world's largest economy
may 2008: USA's home prices drop by 15.8%, the steepest decline in 21 years
june 2008: oil prices pass $140 a barrel
sep 2008: The USA takes over the two largest mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the largest insurance company, American International Group
sep 2008: In a financial crisis, Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch is sold to Bank of America, the two remaining investment banks in the United States, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, decide to become traditional banks, and the government buys $700 billion of bad mortgages in the largest financial bailout since the Great Depression, and on September 29 the Dow Jones loses 778 points, the biggest single-day point loss ever
oct 2008: the Dow Jones loses more 22% in a week of continuous losses, including the biggest single-day decline since 1987
Jul 2009: The USA budget deficit tops $1 trillion
Aug 2009: The unemployment rate reaches 9.7%, a 26-year high
Nov 2009: The US stock indices stage one of the greatest rallies in history, in the face of horrific fundamentals, 80% of all the increases come from weekend future trading ramp jobs.  It becomes widely accepted that Goldman Sachs is in cahoots with the Federal Reserve and the US Gov, to intentionally goose the stock market and bypass normal business cycles.
Mar 2010 The rally continues, unemployment reaches 17% on the U6 measure, foreclosures continue, record deficits become even larger, Europe teeters on debt defaults.  Dubai is lurking.

Dog Pictures

It's a bull market in Shepherds and Gunpowder!