Saturday, May 8, 2010

Pretcher and McHugh Track Record

My original idea when I started this blog was to have a place to store my own research and ideas, and if others wanted to stop by great. Idea was also to become a better trader, present wins and loses, and get feedback or ideas from others.

Both of those have worked to a degree. I think my skills as a chartist have become incredibly improved IMNSHO.

One reason for this post is so I can find the below links later and dig into them.

I got these links from a blogger on Breakpoint Trades which is a pay service with a free trial available. These review McHugh and Pretcher. Both of those guys do come up with material that no one else has. But they primarily sell newsletters, that causes them to say silly things.

Check it out and let me know what you think!!!!

And So it Begins

Note the shooting star backtest of the PRS 133 channel (minutes before the Thursday Heist) 

I posted "Fractured Fractals" during that retest, and went short 3 futures.   In retrospect, wish I had played it bigger.   But I have also found in the past, when taking on inordinately large positions (say 10 to 20 futures) that the market goes out it's way to punish.

It's hard to "trust" this market in any way.   The bottom reversal happened in such proximity to the "limit down" market stopping rules, that it further reeks of manipulation

Here is the cool part, the "Fractured Fractals" post, right before the debacle. 

Note the comment on the chart: "Backtest of the PRS 133 and breakout to the downside, accelerating fear", 3 futures stop set right above the PRS lower channel, worked perfectly.

Below is my first attempt at a "Movie".  This shows the Thursday crash in live action.  The yellow line is the PRS 133 lower channel.   Note the mini-backtest and then the real backtest. No audio on this one.

The backtest of the PRS133 channel line is about halfway through the video....then the plunge.

Testing Video -- Below is HTML to Utube and at the bottom is the Utube link directly

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Bulls got reamed

Just a late night thought....

Bulls got reamed.   That was the easiest way to take the most money out of the market by the market makers.   And a lesson plan to the Clinton being disgusted that the gov doesnt controlt he bond market...Bama may want think that the Fed free money set stock market and confidence a permanently high plateau.  

This will end badly.  

But, bulls got reamed.  Are they going to deploy their money?   hmmmm

1128 ES futures late night.....I may lose money on some short futures....but the payoff seems pretty good on a betting scale. 


Made some good short bets at 1155 on the ES (S&P 500 futures), based on a breakdown below a PRS 133 channel and a backtest of the same.   Shoulda Coulda made so much more.

I had predicted a limit down day to make most bears miss the move.   It probably shook out most active bulls, rarely does anyone have a stop much more than 7% or 10%.  

Fear Factor broke its lower channel line that it has been toying with.   In the past, when FF keeps going down even though market is bouncing, I have seen the market then follow along shortly.

FF going down means more FEAR.

EEM puts I have been holding for months, got a nice gain today, but still not even.  I have 35 strikes.   EEM was down more than US indices as previously postulated.

Exciting, but the smell of manipulation is strong.  There are trade records of who is doing what, someday they will be reviewed. 

Fear factor suggests a buy and hold short position is my strategy.   The second closeup up of fear factor shows that the day ended with fear at high levels, near the high of the day.   The Fear Factor Indicator shows lower numbers as actual fear increases.

The first image is at 1155, betting short.  The other two are after market close.

Fractured Fractals? Methinks yes

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

At the Crossroads, Bouncing but not Convinced

Once again the ol; PRS133 came through in flying colors, it pushed through a little, but then found support. 

took profit on shorts then longs (minor, don't really want to hold longs unless I am actively at my computer).

Fear factor just about broke down.

DWC at thin tail support

DWC /GLD is at the lower channel line.

And of course for those who remember I called the top in April at 1162 on the ES, well at least we are back here again.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Tuesday Update

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger today....

There was technical damage done to the market, for sure.

Distribution measurement methods have shown not just record levels, but twice as high as previous record levels.   They have been ramping and distributing for over 6 months looks like a culmination.

But Big Ben got his printing press....except this time around, Goldman won't participate in the late night ramps jobs.   But there are plenty of other brokers out there, now "acting" as banks for the purpose of getting free money.

The 1932 Fib Fan on SPX appears to be acting as support, whereas a few months back it was resistance.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Jekyll Island and Deception

Jekyll Island, richly ambiguous on a number of fronts, and in play these days.

This was supplied by a blogger at Evil Speculator (which, if you are a day trader, you ought to take advantage of it's products).

Things are either are as they appear to be
Neither are or appear to be
Or are and don't appear to be
Or not and yet appear to be

Sell weakness OR buy the dip

Buying the dips has been good this last year (I hardly ever did).

Fundamentals are horrific.

Went back short, way short, but ready to close also.   Based on Euro broke the PRS 133 AND the Person Pivot (daily).  When I say Euro, I mean the EUR/USD pair

This is not investment advice and never is.   Do your own due diligence.  If you do not have your own method, you will not have the guts to close out a bad will lose money overall.  

Kind word and a gun

There is a saying,

You can get more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.
 And like the best of lies and deception, the best of them have an element of truth.

However, the above saying is not true in most cases if you brandish your gun (i.e. display it gratuitously) . However, if you leave your negotiating partner determine on their own (say, by the bulge under your sport coat) that you have a gun, your outcome of negotiations will likely be much better.

Humans are perhaps the most irrational creatures ever created on this planet.   Is that a by-product of being the Alpha species or a cause of it?

A very serious question to consider

Greece the wheels

It look ominous out there, after reviewing about 100 charts in my "universe".

There are no new internet news articles on the Great Oil Spill (GOS) on US sites, since April 30th. Only found one on a UK site. This indicates to me that the problem is way worse than ever reported, and that a cover-up is underway, regardless of how impossible it will be to cover this up.

Here are some compelling pix of the spill

I found this site after my "guess" that the spill was much worse because of the lack of news coverage.   Check them out.

However this Greece bailout, at 3 time the original amount, it likely to spur the markets upward. Euro should be relieved, and continue it's upward path.

But time will tell. It is blatantly obvious that the financial markets are being highly controlled / manipulated. My best recent results have been from using a support and resistance daytrading method. But that is not always possible when this little thing called work rears it's ugly head.

There will be a massive upheaval, and that may be next week or 3 to 6 years from now, it will be world changing from our current perspective. This is a 1970's re-do....but will be far more dramatic. The fundamentals have changed for the worse.