Friday, January 21, 2011

Gold as a Support Point, Bond Interest in Consolidation

Gold is at a critical support point. Very few if any other analysis methods would show this. The PRS177, which is a channel line extension, tells us something that very few can see, much less understand, much less act upon.

We have got a nice 11% profit on a mechanical trading system on GDX from BreakPoint Trades, however this PRS channel line has caused me to close out that trade. That is good enough.

The "Cable" British Pound / USD currency pair has 2 reasons to want to push higher.    The 78 Fibo and the PRS 177.   This would also push US equities higher, although the multi-year correlations may be now at risk of no longer working.    

Also, Expiry week is done.   The Monday after expiry often finds some good size fireworks to correct the antics of Expiry week.  Sunday futures will be interesting.  We banked some serious coin last Sunday playing the futures, which seemed to move in perfect 5 and 3 wave patterns, almost like shooting fish in a barrel.   Not that I will complain, any win is a win gratefully accepted.

Bond Interest Rates are at a 61Fibo, also looking a near perfect bull flag. Choose your own poison on how to play this. Perhaps TBT or even JNK? However, one concern is that there is so much media coverage about muni bonds being risk, and States being allowed to declare bankruptcy--defaulting on pension obligations and bonds. I have to take this amount of media coverage (it is large) as a contrary indicator--when they pimp it out that much, there must be some opposite plan coming a TARP for borrowing for State Governments.

This feeds back into my tin foil hatter theory of Fed Gov as the economic hit man, enslaving everyone, including State Governments with debt. What a great plan to consolidate power at the Federal Level. Time will tell.

Expiry, FF, PMEI, and VOC

Some relief for the bulls tomorrow.

Thurs and Fri of expiry are usually pretty tame. Then Monday comes back with a vengeance.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Quick post, full moon shadow is before the drop, if there is one

I think we get a 5% drop to convince the public that this ramp is not complete BS.

After the full moon.   Today's drop was before the moon.   They big moves usually come 2 or 4 days after, so Monday after options expiry.

Never forget expiry week, which is now. Call holders to get scared out of their positions.

Nothing big on the Fear Factor, it is waffling between Bollinger bands,


GDP of US States Compared to Other Countries, US is "the mother load" for ECH to hit

And here it is larger for easier reading

Gold Long

I have been charting this gold miner for years, but got interested again on this double round of "bad news" intentionally injected into the market.  They started producing gold in 2010 after futzing around for 5 or more years.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Euro is a guarnteed long based on my systems

About as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.   Going long the Euro whilst Europe is on the edge of default and is illegally printing Euros, well, that is the hard trade to take.  I am taking it.

PS definite stop below the PRS 177 outer channel line.  I might be long, but I ain't crazy.

Good luck and good night

Short Cable Short Yen

Real Life Example of FX

I was at my bank today; there was a short line.

There was just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady who was trying to
exchange yen for dollars. It was obvious she was a little irritated . . .

She asked the teller, "Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla fo

Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?"

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, "Fluctuations."

The Asian lady says, "Fluc you white people, too."

Earthquakes, full moons, magnetic shifts. Extreme Optimism.

I think the title says it all.  The average Earthquake in last 7 days was around 65 last year, it has been going up steadily week by week in the last month or so.

Big 7.2 quake in Pakistan

Unilateral Money Grabs

They call this an "Offset".  Expect more of this type of thing to become commonplace and "acceptable".

Perhaps a unilateral money grab prior to deliberation and opportunity for the grabee (sound like a TSA operation) to defend themselves.

They thought they were getting an incentive payment from the Fed.   Instead they got the shaft.  

Bond Buyer

Build America Bonds

January 18, 2011

This Week's Headlines

IRS Withholds 15% of D.C. BAB Subsidy Payment Over Payroll Taxes Bond Buyer  |  Jan 11
The Internal Revenue Service ­withheld $707,757, or 15%, of the District of Columbia’s Dec. 1 Build America Bond subsidy payment because of payroll taxes, making the city the latest issuer caught by surprise with an offset.

Monday, January 17, 2011

USD down, must mean indices up

Someone did a generous donation of $100, Mahalo!

That was a bit more than I thought most would chunk down, I have donated $10 $20 on some sites.

Thousands to EWI, ouch!   Marc Faber....still like his writing, but no more on the paid report. 

A scan of futures markets says that USD goes down, there are fully convincing breaks of the the PRS 177 on most Forex.   The PRS 133 is a bounce point, or a warning, the PRS 177 is a trend change.    It really is that simple.  

That probably means that the US indices go up.   After all, I am sure  Dabama is calling the PPT, asking why the heck did US futures go down on MLK day.....sheet ain't you boyz working the weekend?    Sorry boss...the 26 year old female college student (research the actual plunge protection team, or at least the QE2 pummel your tax money and your grand kids tax money into trying to bypass a business cycle, team) had a hot date so she couldn't ramp the futures....c'mon we all need a weekend off.

MLK Day, Not all the markets are closed.

Gold and Silver look under pressure.  

Old friend Cable

Cable seems to be running up, that can put pressure against USD futures and thus all USD pairs, whilst Euro has a stiff headwind, Cable is some wind at it's back.

However The PRS 133 may stop Cable, quite the fast move between the 100 and 133

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Euro futures did indeed drop a bit.

It was a nice run down, always nice to make $1k on a Sunday night trade.   Still in it but watching like a hawk, stop is set solid to take me out.

This perfect H&S and retrace is too good to pass up.   Have to keep this  short open, yet tightly reigned in

Currency Wars, Fear Factor, and the all new VOC

Fear Factor is showing some interesting moves, see chart annotations.

Fear Factor just popped strongly above the upper Bollinger, that means a "surge of no fear".   Since this whole chart depicts the "Great Bear Rally" (trademark HT), these pops usually preceed a small decline, but sometimes just a consolidation, NEVER a strong move up.    I am betting against a strong move up.

The new VOC is shown

As opined last week, Euro did taunt and pop the PRS 177, now with a kick down from the Daily Person Pivot - the Magenta line.

I am Short Euro Futures from last Friday and lovin' it.