Saturday, July 11, 2009

WAT Profile of a triggered short

This one has 14% more to go from 49 to 43 on a measured move down from the rising wedge, and that also happens to be a 50%Fib. At 45 set a stop or take some off the table. A quick 10% gain is nothing to sneeze at.

This is just one of the many stocks detailed in charts and tables over the last several weeks, check out the old listings, and let me know if you see good new developments, since I do not have time to check them all. You can't be a leech all the time, or the host no post.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Lots of non-traders agree....big downside in economy ahead

OK, last February lots of people were coming straight out and telling me how awful things were. And then we had a bear market rally. Don't fool yourself and don't be deceived, that is what is going on-- A BEAR MARKET RALLY. But also keep in mind...standard Elliot Wave principles can easily see the S&P going to 1050 AND STILL BE PART OF A BEAR MARKET RALLY. Now these last 2 weeks, when I suggest to "normal people" that there is more downside ahead in the overall economy....I have 90% enthusiastic agreement. That worries me since my core position is short, way short.

However there is one thing that Elliot Waves cannot see forward, nor other studies based on prior correlations. The financial system is in Deep Kim Chee (that's the nice Hawaii way of saying Deep Shit). There is going to another wave of mortgage defaults, and credit card defaults, and car loan defaults, and when Arnold Schwarzenegger cannot even give out an IOU, bond Defaults certainly of private enterprise and probably of many government entities. The charts can't "see that" and most people don't "know that" or at least they don't want to believe that.

Look at the "beggar thy neighbor" policies being instituted all around you.

A combination of ignorance, misinformation, and denial could lead to some serious DKC. And we don't know when this will happen, but the volume will be enormous in terms of socio-economic effects and sell off in the markets. And you best be ready in terms of your financial planning, your physical security, and your mobility.

What is the risk of expending energy to be ready, and then nothing really happens, compared to being on the brink, yet not getting ready?

ES Channel with Warrior Trader Commentary

New SPX channel for Friday

Cleanest Chart ever by steveo

Thursday, July 9, 2009

List O' Stocks -- Thanks to TK

View of the ES

"I want a new channel, one that does what it should, one that don't cost too much, one that don't give me a false sell"

Huey Lewis and the News.... -

The Continuing Saga of the Person Pivot

person pivot says small change for tomorrow FX

Just started using person pivot. This is suggesting that tomorrows range should be small. More to come in this learning experience.

EUR / USD FX Wait for pivot

Sad story, sign of the times me thinks

Times may be getting tougher. 2 Hawaii residents were electrocuted in seperte incidents trying to gather fruit....this is a serious story, it is sad, but one of those "sign of the times".

And poor GS had their program stolen (without a backup), maybe they need some more TARP money to get them back on their feet, whilst they hand out their biggest bonuses ever.

FX does drive the market somewhat and FX is Wild

Weaker dollar means easier for foreigner to buy US stocks.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

893 is the number of Bounce on Spx

893 is not just a Fib retrace, it is also the retrace to the upsloping neckline. If you don't know what I mean, you may want to sit out until a true trending direction is set.

The quasi bulls are now admitting bearishness....that tells me we have a little bounce.

No time for charts tonight.

FCX short was triggered

DR Copper is promulgating the patient is turning for the worse, a broken neckline is no way to bring down LME copper stock levels. FCX does copper and gold and they are both likely to head down. FCX broke a neckline. This stock is heavily traded and gamed, so you better be ready for some shakeout moves.

Charts along with new ES chart to come later.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

FX Head and Shoulders USD / JPY

Everyone knows the USD is toast, and everyone know inflation is coming big time. Well, no everyone knows that what everyone knows is just plain wrong. Going bull the greenback puts a headwind against equities. That's this solar engineer's guess, and I guessed the solar trend right in 2005. Leverage on TOS FX is 100 to 1.

Fib Fan-- 1932 to the 2007 Peak (not 2002)

This turns out quite different. But there is no perfect answer. When 2 things both are sensical, yet yield different results, you could either keep an eye on both or discard both.

Fib Fan from 1932

I don't really know much I trust the Fib Fan, I guess like some stocks are Fib retracement friendly, maybe some are Fib Fan friendly. On another BLOG someone was stating that 1932 50% Fib fan was providing strong support right now, and I couldnt replicate that. Maybe it depends on log versus arithmetic charting...however, the most respected chartist Tim Knight pretty much says use log -- "hands down" discussion over.

Comments appreciated.

ES updated

The blue channels drawn starting in early June seem to perfectly define turn points and the H&S- However, these are sloping necklines. And if you draw totally horizontal necklines the late may bottoms, you get 874 and 870. So don't get all giddy short unless you can watch like a hawk and have the guts to close positions at a loss if we do bounce off those potential alternates. The blue channels have performed perfectly, though. And fully expect a retrace to the blue channel neckline at around 895.

KKmoney from SOH Blog posted this CAKE, which we have played recently, but now the triangle appears to be at the end of its rope, and certainly this could breakout to the upside, but I doubt it. The American over conusmer has got to realize that you can't have your CAKE, 2 Harleys in the garage, 7 flat screen TV's, and eat it too. The unemployment check just wont cover it. :)

Monday, July 6, 2009

/ES for Tuesday -- It's Beautiful Man

I feel this is a pretty high probability. Yesterdays big move down was an obvious 5 down, complete with negative divergence on the 10 minute MACD--highlighting wave 5. So tomorrow should complete the ABC, and it just so happens, there is an IHS pattern, that just so happens to measure up perfectly to a 61 Fib retrace. I closed my trading shorts, still hanging on to a core short position.

Seeing without deception.....

Also on my "Cool Chart" I noticed that JPM has zero short float, yeah right. Short squeeeze site shows just 1.2% short. Maybe the smart money all got puts or single stock futures.

The "Cool List"

Really cool Excel spreadsheet of stocks with interesting patterns, whether optionable or shortable, if on Thinkorswim list of easy to borrow, short float, earning date, and P/E (for you fundamentalists)

If you send an email to I will send you the actual spreadsheet (unless I get 1000 requests...and then I will have to find a way to post for downloading).

Junk Bonds -- The Hidden Market Confidence Voting Machine

If you are trying to sleuth out market direction, you need to look into the guts of the market. Don't allow your thinking to be polluted by CNBC, Fox News, Cramer, or even the "Research Reports" of your Broker, or worse...the free ones you can get on the net.

You can get 90% of what you need from price and volume data. Turn off the TV. Maybe get a live feed for "pit noise" if you are really running some money.

And keep the guts of the market in view. Junk Bonds let you peer into what the market is really thinking, not what the market is telling you that it is thinking.

Check out the nice Fib kickdown on JNK.

Market Strategist and Commentator - Bill Cara

Please check out this link to Bill Cara.

It takes a while to get to his level of thinking. He also has a good book.

The link feature on my BLOG is not working so you will paste this into your browser, it is worth it.

SPY Fake Break Bear Trap?

Compare to the ES chart, interesting divergences.

ES Roadmap and Triggered Trades

ES is bouncing between recent low and channel line. Tiem symmetry on the head and shoulders is NOT REQUIRED, but some whipsaw and delay would cause the market makers to make more money. But they are not 100% in control.

PAAS and CTX shorts were triggered today.

Of the 30 or so Boatload of charts, I havent entered trades on any of those yet, pending some resolution on near term direction.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Currecies Gone Wild

OK, so I place my first ever currency trade tonight, based on a hint from a top trader in FX and options at Evil Speculator....and then I find this ain't a pony ride....I just entered the run with the bulls.

The currency markets basically blew up tonight. Massive flight to USD and yen. bounce off the VIX? I know last week on Thurs, I was hearing....take the weekend off, don't even trade Thursday, nothing happens on short weeks.

Check the other BLOG posts....I have over 30 charts that are ready to move.

If above link is none existant, paste the below into your browser

Visitors from around the world and MORE CHARTS

ES Broken Neckline

Also this chart Posted by Gary from Evil Speculator shows a real long term trendline and why a downturn may be "justified".

If the link above doesnt work, you will have to copy adn past the URL directly

3rd Boatload O' Charts

2nd Boatload of Charts

More chart, mostly based on Candlesticks, mostly shorts

ES Taunting the Neckline

Boatload o' Candle Patterns

These are all candle patterns. They perform well in a short term say 2 to 5 days, at which point it would be wise to take some off the table. Since market was bearish, that leads to lots of bearish candles being printed. Only 2 are bullish, and I think the overall trend is down.

I'll do another set late night Sunday after Hiking.