Friday, March 16, 2012

Friday Close

Short Signal on the 78 Fibo and the Bernoulli 100 didn't seem to play out.   I want to say thanks to the readers here for visiting.

And keep in mind this is an advertising supported site, thats why we have ads.

They still can....after the market "bores you silly", then the move occurs, but I took my lumps quickly above the B100 line, so flat into weekend.     Long gas and gold miners, long term position.   Amazing how gas is just decimated, funny how T Boone Pickens was pimping gas like there was a bright tomorrow a few years back.

Nat Gas not being used too much for peaking generators, since peaks are down, as economy is down.    The real economy, not the reported economy.   Now it is so cheap, people moving to technologies to use it...then it will ramp up big time, but is that next year or 4 years?      And how much gas suppliers will be driven bankrupt int he meantime.    

Good theory to own the biggest and best Nat Gas, not the small guys.

And for investments, buy a hole in the ground.    Seriously buy oil wells.    As a general partnership that later gets transferred into a limited partnership to minimize liability.  

80% tax deduction out of the gate, 20% annual return and even those earnings are somewhat protected from tax.  

You ain't going to find this type of information on the net, even your so called big bank financial they ain't going to tell you the good stuff.....that's for them and their buddies.     But there are plenty scammers in the gas and oil business too, so any investment needs an excellent due diligence. 

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Great Charts from blogger at BPT

Just showing extreme conditions, read the notes

Put call Ratios

Sorry I just don't have time to mark up these charts for you.    These are my best of the best put call and buy write / put call indicators.    email me and I will send you the Stock Charts link.   

And don't forget this is an advertising supporting site...which ain't much but at least it can pay for stockcharts and maybe an Elliot of Arch Crawford (Astro Tech, the best and longest lasting successful Astro Tech trader)   See previous post, Arch let us put up his paid newsletter in full, really cool!

These are on my Stockcharts "indicator" list which I scroll through almost daily when I am trying to get a sense of the overall market.    Extreme put call readings, and ratios, and MACD's can be very instructive at the most important times.  

Summary---These are starting to get extreme, but not a screaming that a big change is coming.   

Other stuff is saying that a big change is coming.    Lots of call holders though....HBB hates paying them.

What to do.

Saw a post on Blue Chip Bulldog, and ranted back as below

  • Dutch, likes fast motorcycles and rich women.
    Be thankful people. Be thankful you can toy and play this game and make money doing it when people are out there begging. We just had a Vietnamese lady walk in to our lobby (prob. walked from the bus stop 1 mile away) and filled out an application form and attached a HAND WRITTEN resume in very poor English. Nevertheless, she's busting her ass trying to find something. It appeared that she was an assembly line worker (here or another country, idk) and we know where all those jobs went. Since the 90's this valley lost over 1mil plant/fab jobs. We have more people and less jobs than we did 20 years ago. I'm making $18 which is the least I've ever made since college, and people are begging to get a $9 an hour job in the plant.

good slice of life story, however---

Instead of being thankful for having a pittance of a job,
  1. we should insist that corporations operate within the law, 
  2. we should insist on the end to regulatory capture, 
  3. we should jail those in government who take bribes and operate under a clear conflict of interest, 
  4. we should eliminate 90% of all lobbying, 
  5. we should restore the constitution, 
  6. we should eliminate 40% of all government and put them to work in a productive job, 
  7. we should bring HOME ALL of the men and women of the armed forces, ALL of them, and put them to work building a new energy infrastructure, 
  8. and lastly we should eliminate the vampire squids that have taken over the market place and restore markets as an effective means of rewarding productivity through price discovery and development of capital as opposed to the disgustingly rigged casino that it has become. 

We should do a few other things too, but that's a good start.   End the Fed, gold linked standard, slap down the drug companies and their capture of the medical industry, force all laws to be written in plain English---you get the idea.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Safest to be a Bull??

BlueChip Bulldog--She is good, agnostic.   Simple in a way.    Thinking this was a breakout, the real deal.

BPT Advising same thing, at least caution not to run out and buy 500 puts. 

Cara advising same thing.

Steveo---- looking for validation.   I have to stick with my gut, in fact the Xray of the market that I call my gut.   My main indicators say that something very odd has gone on, VIX, VIX/VXV, Fear Factor, VOS (all based in some aspect of volatility.

PM Cartel still dropping Gold and Silver, selling paper, until organic phys steps in.

Its all quite odd.   I could get chewed up on tight stops being hit.   And had some hit late night.

Back in short at ES 1393 on a perceived deception flag false breakout, swat down by a trendline

Blue is from BlueChipBulldog, Brinkley

Late Night Gift, ES at the BIG 78 Fibo

Short at 1390

Could be a top, Bob got hit, Crawford Newsletter, Fear Factor, VOS, and Bernoulli, oh my!

Per my previous post, Big Bob got hit, his S&P stop at 1399 got hit. 
HBB (Humungous Bank and Broker) loves doing that.    A quick run up yesterday....scary pop for shorts, and then to see follow through today....lots of stops hit.   Bob a victim of his own success.

Arch Crawford (pretty famous Astro and Tech trader) also on the same page by entirely different methods.   Arch kind enough to let me post a paid newsletter in full.   Check out Arch at his website, really interesting stuff.   If you call him on the phone he will answer too.

Arch's Site

Check out Chart 2....a ramp job on a down volume day--- Man that HBB got game!

Now "they" will be scared to re-enter shorts....then market will drop like 6% to 1320 or so, and they will regret missing the move and now convinced its P3 time....then they will jump on short and get ramped up again.

HBB loves that stuff....using hundreds of Billions of managed money and State Pension Funds to move the market to take the most money.     They live for that and the insider tips, and they need it, because they couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag if they didn't have the corruption on their side.  

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Free BPT Newletter

 BPT offers a great service, best in class for the price, and quite honestly, best in class for any price.

Free Commodity and Gold Newsletter BPT

They also have a 15% coupon ends tomorrow.   The 6 month membership is the best deal at $240.   Sign up using the link in the right side of my blog.

I typically do 2 or 3 trades a week using trade ideas that they present and that ring true with my own methods.    Since they do Patterns, Fibonacci, Elliot, and Stochastics and other indicators, alot of their methods match with mine.    Of course, they don't have the top secret Bernoulli or Egg formations, nor some of my custom ratios the see past the standard games the deceptors of the market makers use as standard tools.   BUT

Bottom line is just taking a few small trades, usually $10k to $30k can often net $500 to $2000 in just a handful of days.     70% to 80% profitable, and then depends on how quick and how tight you move your stop to protect your position.   The tighter and quicker you move your stop, the more likely you are going to be stopped out.   And sometimes you get stopped and THEN the real move happens....whatever, I am so past caring about what could have been.  

Instead at the end of every week I plot my equity and you want to see an upward trend with not many losses.   

These trades may take 10 to 30 minutes to manage, review daily, move stops, decide to take profits.   And they are pretty good about watching out for earnings so you don't get blindsided.   Some of these are low volume stocks, even under 200,000 shares per day.   So you have to be on your toes. 

If your job has you too busy....don't take any trade if you can't manage them.   Simple enough. 

Trade results, not too shabby.    And below are some untriggered trades, all longs.....