Friday, July 15, 2011

A reader asked, What happens next?

For me, I will redraw fresh Bernoulli channels, some Fibonacci lines, and then do a cross market comparison of DX, Euro, Cable, in relation to the other currency (Gold), and retail Gold (Silver), and then mix in ES and TF. 

It is a beautiful full moon and that should portend a big move, however, the McC, see chart here--click the chart to update it, it not saying "big move" so maybe big move is delayed

Interestingly, alot of the real moves have been during "cash hours", maybe Benny and the Gang ran out of money to ramp the markets at nighttime.  But Sundays during the European session, have been quite exciting lately.    The various currencies can get ramped .7% in a matter of minutes...if you have a buy or sell order waiting in the weeds, you can catch really big moves and then trailing stop them.   The moves are so fast you can't get them just by watching and reacting.   

I think the powers that be like to have the markets perched on the edge of disaster....telling Gov to being back the easy money, the easy credit, but in the mean time we will create some chaos so we can financially blow up some companies and industries and buy them on the cheap.    Or bankrupt a few states and make a power grab for their infrastructure so they can then rent it back to the sheeples, like a continuous shear job.

Plus, they (HBB)  can point to Dodd Frank, 1 year old law, and point to the sideways market for one year, and that pretty much proves that "the real problem is regulation".    Of course it isn't, the real problem is lack of enforcement of existing laws, selective destruction of contract law, and a host of other things.   They want easy money and deregulation, so the upper echelons don't even have to consider a 2% chance that they might end up in jail, just remove the regulations completely.

I really don't think that it is alot more complicated than that.

The central bankers (not the elite, the thieves) have gained control over the governments, and now the markets.   Markets are driven by currency moves, driven by shenanigans and controlled media news.    What a sad state of affairs, but at least realize the playing field if you choose to play.   Out.

Friday Expiry--taking the day off for the most part

Glad I missed this session.   Decided to take the day off.   

I may roll some options forward, I still have a fistfull of puts, most of them nicely in the money, however the Theta (time value of the option) will start to erode rapidly.    So I will probably roll forward to August or even September....not because I plan on holding until September, but because I really hate the Theta burn, it is exactly like guaranteed losing money.   

When there is lots of time--on my hands-- selling options is the way to go (with spreads, never naked).   People refer to this as "generating income" which is completely FALSE.   Indeed, you might have new cash in your account balance, but you have a  corresponding entry for the liability.    You may generate income over time as the Theta burns works in your favor.  

There are so many great lies of the industry, letting your trick your mind into whatever you want to believe.   Like, by buying options, you limit your risk.  INDEED, you limit your risk to a quick 100% loss of your investment.  

Of course it is true that with selling naked options your risk is pretty much unlimited, however that doesn't change the line above.  

Monday after expiry is usually pretty exciting, if a move is going to happen it probably won't be Thurs or Friday of Expiry, it will be the following Monday when the market gets back to normal.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Breakpoint Trades

Sign up to Breakpoint Trades. $40 per month. Look at any one of these trades....sure 2 losers so far, how does that compare to normal trading?

Use the link on the left side of my blog, it doesn't cost you any more and get me some credits, which help defray the cost and time of blogging for me.

Fibonacci Fan on S&P 500

Well it is interesting, this is actually 3 fib fans, with a prior fan line becoming the start line of the next fan.

It did this in 2008 also, support, then swat down.

I challenge 4 lurkers who have never or rarely left a comment to DROP A COMMENT today

Mahalo and Aloha!

And  3.5 hours later, this is how that EUR/USD trade is playing out.  Nice to be right once in a while.

You remember George Costanza?   Opposite world?   Do the opposite of what it looks like you should do.    My psychology is programmed into the HAL 20000 HFT trading computers, for them to work against me.     When it looks perched to fall off the edge of the earth, I go long.   Got it?   Opposite world

Posted by David Christoph on Daneric site
"Some see private enterprise as a predatory target to be shot, others as a cow to be milked, but few are those who see it as a sturdy horse pulling the wagon."

This was hilarious, a new medicinal drug relisted for additional purposes, Kudos to Steve from Breakpoint Trades for posting this.

German Shepherd really do "talk" with their ears, this is not my dog but is hilarious. Good ol' belly laugh guaranteed or your money back.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Earning, Busy Stock and JPM

Busy Stock is a great site to get Earning schedules and historical earnings estimates.

This is news that matters.  If you are holding an individual equity, short, own put or calls, or live in that ethereal land of single stock futures, it is very wise to know when your holding will report earnings.    Many reputable traders will close their position a week before earnings, since holding through earnings is about very much like gambling. 

JPM reports tomorrow before the open

Long USD via /DX, based on bouncing off a lower channel line.

Fat Boy, Fat Moon, and Fat Swans

The professional investor views risk in terms of upside and downside.  The amateur looks only at the downside.  He fails to ask decisively when there is opportunity and chases the market at peaks.  There is no better time to invest than when there are many well-known and well-documented worries.  A bad time to invest is when no one is worried.
This is from "A Dash".   I want to look back at this 6 months from now.   Although true that there is always some or many pieces of bad news out there, really all the time (bad news sells).  

The simple fact of presence of bad news does NOT make a compelling argument for being even a reluctant long (other reasons can make us be reluctant longs).

Roll Options Forward (in time), Gordon Gecko

This push up today is great opportunity to roll puts forward to September or even October if you really hate Theta Burn (loss of money due to time decay).

I haven't check the cost of volatility, and VIX has become it's own beast, of course the market makers set the price of options, and therefore they control the volatility to a great extent.   But VIX itself has become highly gamed, so it is not as useful as before.

 Greed is Good, check this guy out, Gordon Gecko.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Bullish on Doctor Copper!

Bullish from an upside down perspective.

False Flag Break Deception

This is what I call the "False Flag Break".   A deceptive move of the markets, scaring the longs out of their position before continuing upward.   The PTB HBB crew does everything they can to rack the retail over the coals.   And they collude through direct phone conversation, pit talk, and complicity of quant programs.   Fair? No.  Legal, No?    The way it is?  Yes.

I remain long GBP

Cable long on the B-Channels

Monday, July 11, 2011

What to do now?

Puts bought 2 weeks ago and last week are up nicely, very nicely.    Some are profitable, some are still struggling to get back to even.

Banked Cable profits already, maybe too soon, but the market will continue to go up and down, and when there is money in the account the chance to jump on opportunities is there!

Now what to do?  

Thinkorswim of course did an update over the weekend.   It is not even funny....if something big is about to happen, seems like an update or 2 or 3 back to back updates, is their norm.   And of course.....90% of all of my preformatted charts with Bernoulli channels on them are wiped out....those bastards, seriously.

For me, wiping out my Bernoulli and Fibonacci's is like throwing a bushel of mushroom soup on ones' windshield while driving, effectively I am blind.

So what to do?  
Visit Breakpoint Trades (BPT) and check the blog.   Perhaps Steve and Matt have some timely charts up, or perhaps some of the talented readers are posted ideas.

Closed out a trade on GWMGF, a trade idea from BPT, 2500 shares bought at .70, closed at .785.

Small money= $1750, but profit of $200, or 11% in less than 2 weeks.    Of course the goal is to make money, not just pay for the $240 6 month membership.   But obviously you could see what would happen with 10 of these trades, or trading say 10,000 shares.   

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Wax on Wax Off

I haven't backtested this indicator, but like the idea of it.   Indeed, if you were using the Eur or Cable to try to predict US equities, their recent spastic behaviour would have been confusing at best.

This one is far enough off the radar that perhaps it isn't gamed as badly.

Idea By DEEJ, Bernoulli by HT