Wednesday, February 6, 2013

BPT Trade Ideas

I love these trade ideas from BPT

An interesting chart of "cash hours" silver

The crowd you run with on Gun Control

That's about all I have to say about that, trading the illusion of comfort for liberty and prevention of tyranny is a very poorly thought out bargain.

Just a reminder for those of you who think gun control is good policy.
1. Stalin promoted gun control
2. Mussolini promoted gun control
3. Hitler promoted gun control
4. Castro promotes gun contorl
5. Chavez promotes gun control
6. Chairman Mao promoted gun control
7. Marx promoted gun control
8. Pol Pot promoted gun control
9. Pelosi promotes gun control
10. Ted Kennedy promoted gun control
11. Fienstien promotes gun control
12. Obama promotes gun control

Beware of politicans who agree with dictators.

Palentology of Politicians

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Deaths for Guns and Ladders

From Dec 14 to Feb 1, there were

53,100 deaths related to Tobacco usage

49,000 deaths related to Obesity

13,275 deaths due to alcohol usage

4,000 deaths due to automobiles

2465 deaths related to sexual activity

1,490 deaths due to ladders/falls

1,280 deaths due to all types of gun usage

Seems that guns are one of the safest things around, and that with a little education, could be extremely safe, while performing important functions that nothing else can.

Source CDC, NCBI, Liberty Mutual

Nikkei and Money Printing and your Fiat Retirement and Healthcare

We have what looks like a bull market, and if it looks like a bull, it is a bull.   Unless of course it's a bull trap, and not a mini-1 day huge 1% drop "Biggest drop of the whole year" with bears salivating and piling on AFTER the initial morning move, AND getting killed the next morning gap up.  

Funny how that works.

But the Nikkei is priced in JPY, and the futures NKD are priced in USD.    Who will be the more "successful" printer?   Maybe they "take turns" which seems to be the case for the major currency pairs over the last three years....currency wars....every country wanted their fiat the weakest so they can sell product to other countries AND have a defacto default on paying back their debts with fiat that is "worth less" if not worthless.  

And in lieu of a real default, that is the way that it has to play.   One exception, a real default like Iceland, who just whipped the creditors the bird and said you ain't getting no money, and then proceeded on with organic growth without the overhang of a debt that can never be repaid, a crippling debt, a confidence destroying debt.

But that said, Nikkei looks very BULLISH with a precaution that the big 38 Fibo from the 2007 peak to the 2008 bottom is potentially in play as resistance.

HBB loves it this MUST put your assets at risk in the stock market in order to keep up with inflation, and then they can have their HAL 20000 computers work you over, running stops whenever possible, transferring wealth.    It's  war for your money under the pretense of a "civilized society with the rule of law".

And the next game up...the amount of money in tax deferred retirement accounts is roughly equal to the US national debt.....hmmmm.....for desperate politicians, do you really think there is any possible outcome other than the obvious?   Even a chance of a different outcome?   5% chance even?   

After all, unless you are not a "Patriot" you should let Uncle Sam use that money that you never paid tax on, and they will pay off the debt, making bankers and bondholders whole.   Then they will enter an electronic note to your social security "account" to credit that amount....then once you reach 67 or 70 or 72 you may be able to start taking some of that out, around $2000 per month.    BUT only if you pass a "needs test", which means if your other assets are above say $50,000 then you are "wealthy" and you don't get any social security or Title 19 until you are impoverished at $50,000.   If you die, your remaining social security account just goes into the general fund, after all, you didn't "need it".  

Monday, February 4, 2013

Lots of money printing to occur.

Lots of more fiat currencies chasing roughly the same amount of assets.

USD in a H&S pattern, lower Bucky means higher everything else, with US equities perhaps enjoying more than fear assets like PM.    

Chance of war and fear?   Possible but not likely.    

Oil should be good if things just "work out" and oil should be better if war breaks out.   Probably I will own more oil than PM at this juncture.


These are my home brew
  1. Fear Factor
  2. Volatility on Steroids
  3. Asset Class Total
Do you think that using the complex ratios and arithmetic makes it harder to the "invisible hand" to hide it's intentions?

On the right is the up down volume chart, when its a sell all day day, you sell all day.    Easy to recognize.  Same with a buy all day day (Friday)

Trannies - a Triple Doji

IYT, we mentioned last week, was strangely strong,   This triple doji setup is extremely bearish.