Friday, September 11, 2009

Silver Short

Joe Six Pack will use silver as poor mans gold, but they will also run away faster on a turndown.

A chart of SLV, and a chart of analysis of the options on SLV. Looks like a drop in SLV would crush alot of people.

Check these out closely.
(sorry first post the images didn't load, here they are below)

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

The Biggest Indicator of All Time

Sure DavidDT posted a great chart on QQQQ and went "out on a limb" to say sell.

Sure the bullish percent is still really high.

Sure the Fed claimed "victory" over the recession.

The president made a speech about how we have to spend another $900B on health care.

Sure mass murder, kidnappings, and extraordinay punishment are being imposed.

Heck, in theory, I even capitulated yesterday.

However none of these thing say "TOP" like this super indicator that I have been watching since 2004.

This item has never gone on sale of any kind in, well, forever, in my experience. Coach handbags...sure sales, even Louis Vuitton, but not this product, not in Hawaii ever. This was found tonight...I almost passed by and then I was decided to indicators of indicators indicated that the it is about time for the STHTF.

Irregular Top

This could be what we are looking at an irregular top. Or it could blast past and keep going up. But double tops have proceeded every major down of the last few years. Watch for the double top.

Max Pain looks at call and put options and calculates the point of lowest gains to option owners (minimum pain to option sellers). for QQQQ 38 or 39 are about the same low point, so 39 would be "good enough"

Keep in mind all the big moves of option expiry week happen on Monday and Tuesday and maybe a little Wednesday but for the most part the smart money has already rolled forward to a later month, or closed their positions. The other money is sitting on a bunch of out of the money options that they hope will pop into the money with a big end of week move, which frankly just never happens.

Finally, a reply to a poster who was sure helicopter Ben can save the US by printing forever.

Available "money" lets call it, is what allows people to spend. Whether that be credit or real money. Credit itself has never stopped growing through the "Great Recession" (which is now over if you ask the Fed). Understand? Credit is at an all time record and is finally curling over heading towards negative.

Pumping 7% GDP into the economy has resulted in a 3% drop, whereas a 3% gain is normal. In my book, that is a "loss of 13%". 70% of the economy is the consumer, and yet the consumer is saving more than they have in decades, paying down debt, not using credit.

Cash for clunkers was a dismal failure. It was a late night crack hit, that has already resulted in empty dealer lots --like we hadn't learn't enough about bubbles. Sure some vehicle were sold, but the net effect will be negative and not positive, and sure they will probably try something more...until some point nobody will want to loan any money to them, then they will take your IRA and hand you T-bills instead. OK, get it now?

Good solid infrastructure investment well planned that results in future business efficiency and yes even enjoyment for the people (park system) does result in future dividends. Cash for Clunkers was a poorly conceived, too rapidly deployed, and has no future benefit.

Believe what you wish, and please get an avatar, that Hillary is damn annoying.

Recession is Over But those Jellyfish Throwers are Still Running Amok

I don't think I could make this stuff up. Look at all these contradictory headlines side by side.

But the Jellyfish Indicator, indeed, that is right up there with a peaking bullish percent index. I am glad there is no decline is social mood though :-)

And how about the recent huge increase in mass murders and multiple year kidnappings, and one guy got a life sentence for a drunk driving accident in which the other person wasn't killed. Not to be pessimistic folks, but these are the road signs on the highway to Primary 3. Good god, let's hope it finishes quick and low so a rebuilding process is possible.

Officlal Market Capitulation

Some of these health care stocks were out of the world, to the moon, today. 50 to 100% gainers? Appetite for highly speculative risk? Lottery wins based on drug approval? This is getting close to a blow off top on the overall markets, is my humble interpretation of this.

Chipolte Must be In Trouble -- A reaffirmation of outperform usually means bad news needs to be levelized.

Market capitulation, hehe....

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

It's Back......the H&S and Credit Dirt Nap

Xtrends, now going by Xtrenders, Atilla did an awesome post on total credit, and the amazing thing is that only just now does it look like credit will start pulling back. Total credit has continued going up through the last few years, and even now is increasing but the trend looks down. jobs, no credit, huge debt, no industry, and a sense of entitlement and moral superiority flying in the face of all evidence to the contrary.

Monday, September 7, 2009

3 Sets of Wave 5 on ES, Clean Waves

Pension Grab and ES Fractal Projection

Check out this link. Be ready for just about anything. Any absurdity may come to pass in the next few years. Act now to protect yourself.

The chart below was created by a blogger on Evil Speculator (one of my permanent links on the right hand side of the blog).

ES Shenanigans

ES hit my lower upside target. The way I calc it, about $2.5M was taken from the bears on ES this afternoon, based on assumption of short entry around 1010, and stop out around 1021. Manipulation at it's best.

My percent bear technical analysis, and a tech analysis of 22 currencies versus the USD both indicate more upside. Both of these are found on my blog.

The Chart of Charts is indeterminate, but certainly allows for "A top is in"

Comments appreciated.

Tech analysis on Percent Bears

I wish I had 150 years of data on this percent bears so it would be possible to determine if tech analysis was relevant. This chart says that the amount of bears is still a bit higher than it "ought to be" at a market top.

It looks like more upside ahead. There might not be much, but I think until more bears put on a bull suit, it won't be time for C down. And there is a clean copy of the percent bears chart so you can do you own tech analysis if you wish.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Chart of Charts - 20 Currencies against the USD

Here is the summary...I reviewed charts in 4 time frames and did a quick jot down of bullish or bearish for daytrading, intermediate (weeks), long term (months) for 22 currency pairs.

Day trade, 7 or 8 bearish for dollar, 6 or 7 bullish for dollar

Intermediate, 7 bear, 8 Bull

Long term, 4 bear, 11 bull.

Observation--Looks like 5 of the 22 are pretty much just pegged to the dollar. And 2 of those have just recently (Nov 08, June 09) become pegged. See the attached chicken scratch scan.

Analysis---investors aren't ready to fly to the dollar until something seriously scares them, and this might take months yet. Or it could be tomorrow. ES hit its lowest target of mine in Sunday night futures.

One theory---everyone and his brother are convinced that the market is going to tip it's hand very soon, at the latest, this week. What if ol' Mr. Market just oscillates around 1000 SPY for say a month or two? Think of all that option premium the market makers would suck out of the market.

Disclosure...Positioned very short based on low level of bullish breakouts on equities charts, however I will say, this review of the currencies will increase my willingness to cover some short positions early this week, since any near term pop in the USD is not clear at all. In fact, I would suspect one massive sell off in the USD to shake out the weak bulls, and then a run for the money....check UUP to bet this one.

Dollar getting Hammered and Operating Systems

It seems like AUD could be at a stopping point, as a commodity country in a time frame where it makes sense for commodities to go down, and with China restricting lending, time will tell. I haven't bet this short but have an alert set upon weakness.

The ol' Buck is taking a beating and looks like a bear flag formed also. Neo-classic theory of correlation would imply futures to be up an equal amount, and they are up a bit, but not nearly proportional. Interesting, and keep an eye on it.

The second chart below shows the last 500 readers of Hawaii Trading geographically, and then listed by the operating system they use. XP and NT rule the roost, as these are pretty stable systems. Vista is a resource hog, and has other issues, MSFT (not to be confused with MS Morgan Stanley, whom is under review as a short). Vista will probably be replaced with a new OS pretty soon. I installed Vista on one business computer and had significant problems with some software working at all.

Here is recent link on suggested practices for computer stability and backup.