Thursday, August 22, 2013

SPX (via /ES futures) is showing a nice Bernoulli channel, and Support at B50

On Aug 12, we posted that our proprietary bond indicator was indicating a toppy market, and we thought a 6% to 8% correction was likely.

It then banged 1694 the B100 channel line, and promptly dropped to 1631, a 63 point drop.   That was only a 3.7% correction, but still a pretty good call.

6% would be a drop to around 1600, and that would coincide with the Main Bernoulli Channel or the B0 line.   
 This Bernoulli Channel indicates the slope of the advance for the last five years.  This morning we are at the Bernoulli 50, the mid-channel line.

That is a powerful one.    As per crazy Oscar, falling in love with the down side here could be hazardous to your account value.  Although nimble traders could use this pop to 1648 as a short position hoping for the 6% correction and 1600.   We haven't seen massive volume so that tells me the market didn't work over enough bulls.  

A tight "ping" on the Bernoulli 75 channel line lends credence that this channel is very much alive and "correct"

The sloughy support at the B50 could be real support.