Friday, December 6, 2013

Today "Jobs" exuberent pop, was a fake, a perfect backtest of the Channel

I shorted the pre-open. The S&P Futures (ES) showed a perfect pop to the channel line. Not quite a 78 Fibo of the recent downtrend, but I like my Bernoulli Channels better than the horizontal Fibonacci. Bernoulli is my adaptation of Fibonacci principles, but put into uptrends and downtrends, since there are always fundamental headwinds and tailwinds blowing the market. Drop a comment.


And Thinkorswim, man they used to be awesome before the evil empire, TDAmeritrade bought them.    I used to trade on their charts, which were intuitive, had great fills, could even make consistent money trading the nighttime futures.      The charts are still intuitive, but all the rest of what really matters is now crap.   Amazing how the big brokers can destroy the system.   I won't trade on TOS anymore.   But still love the charts.....

Except  this morning....when big moves happen, when it matters the most, if you were only looking at the 15 minute chart, you would have been looking at incorrect data, and been a deer in the headlights, see the lower chart.    Sad.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Taxes -- It's More Than Meets the Eye

Although the Big 3 for most people are Federal Income Tax, State Income Tax, and Property Tax, and added together those can be 30% to 45% of total Gross income. There are a bunch of other "taxes" that we pay, bringing the total cost of supporting your government up to 60% to 85% of everything you make. Sheesh, I would say we need some tax reform! Please add to this list by commenting. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Your Approx Cost Per Year? Description 1 (Cell Phone 911 Fee/Tax) 2 Accounts Receivable Tax 3 Airfare/Airport Tax 4 Alcohol Serving License Tax 5 Building Permit Tax 6 Business and Occupation Tax 7 Capital Gains Tax 8 CDL license Tax 9 Cigarette Tax 10 Corporate Income Tax 11 Court Fines (indirect taxes) 12 Dog License Tax 13 Driving Tax ( Tax on mileage driven, soon) 14 Federal Income Tax 15 Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA) 16 Fire Fee (Tax for square footage protection) 17 Firearms Purchase Task 18 Fishing License Tax 19 Food Production License Tax 20 Food Serving License Tax 21 Fuel permit tax 22 Gasoline Tax (42 cents per gallon) 23 Hunting License Tax 24 Inflation (QE is a TAX) 25 Inheritance Tax Interest expense (tax on the money) 26 Internet Sales Tax 27 Inventory tax IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax) 28 IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax) 29 Liquor Tax 30 Local Income Tax 31 Luxury Taxes 32 Marriage License Tax 33 Medicare Tax 34 Nicotine Tax 35 Parenting Tax (required to get divorced in Massachusetts) 36 Police Fund (Gets you a "support" sticker so you get less tickets) 37 Pot Tax (and NOT the one you sit your ass on) 38 Property Purchasing Filing Taxes 39 Property Tax 40 Real Estate Tax 41 Recreational Vehicle Tax 42 Road Usage Taxes (Truckers) 43 Sales Taxes 44 Savings Tax 45 School Tax 46 Self Employment Tax 47 Septic Permit Tax 48 Service Charge Taxes 49 Social Security Tax 50 Special Tax on Sales of Precious Metals 51 State Income Tax 52 State Unemployment Tax (SUTA) 53 Tax Accounting Fees Tax 54 Telephone federal excise tax 55 Telephone federal universal service fee tax 56 Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes 57 Telephone minimum usage surcharge tax 58 Telephone recurring and non-recurring charges tax 59 Telephone state and local tax 60 Telephone usage charge tax 61 Time Tax (The Cost of Your Time to Understand and Pay Taxes) 62 Toll Bridge Taxes 63 Toll Roads (Turnpikes) 64 Toll Tunnel Taxes 65 Traffic Fines (indirect taxation) 66 Trailer registration tax 67 UN-Affordable Healthcare Tax 68 Utility Taxes (Gas, Water, Electric, Cable, etc.) 69 Vehicle Emissions Testing Tax 70 Vehicle Inspection Tax 71 Vehicle License Registration Tax 72 Vehicle Sales Tax 73 Watercraft registration Tax 74 Well Permit Tax 75 Workers Compensation Tax

Dow following a QE modified "3 Peaks and a Domed House" Pattern, DOW 17800

Some of my best work is "stolen", this idea from Charlie of the Israel division of Hawaii Trading, I did the super positioning and transparency, and ranting.  

It's hard to say Israel and Hawaii in the same sentence.....try it.

Eh, but you know, one Hawaiian brother I can really respect his music (but can't respect that he ate himself to death too young) is Bruddha Iz, Israel Kamakawiwoʻole

Monday, December 2, 2013

Floating Above the Long Term Bernoulli Channel

Odd behavior, 7 trading days outside the Bernoulli.    Often times, there will be just a quick pop type overthrow.     Its a sign of the times....exuberance and QE.  

Methinks this market head down now.     Classic trick...a last minute shakeout to knock out some bulls, and then rally for Santa.    

December is an up month 80% of the time.

Considering selling some PM (from one entity to another) to create a loss for tax purposes.    
The size of the stack remains the same....see how that works?