Friday, July 6, 2012

Watch the Animals

For signs of major market correction, I have often espoused the view of "watch the animals",
when they start "going off" more than usual, that is the sign of a social extreme.

But this recent spate of cannibalistic face eating and such is really a little much to believe.

Seriously though, with everyone perched on their seat waiting for the big presidential stock run, there couldn't be a better time for a few limit downs.

Doing the BDI thing, i.e. a commenter on Slope who is always buying a boatload of out of the money options (seems always like puts), could be an OK strategy ---- yikes ----based on face eating.

Raise taxes to pay Teachers in Chicago

Funny how a "captive audience" property owners, can just be slammed with a new tax, for paying for schools even if they have no children. Kind of a joke really, what sense does that make. But it doesn't have to make sense, just be prepared for every and all types of tax increases and fees to come your way Maybe they ought to ask Scott Walker about those public unions, unions for "civil servants". One of the great lies. --------------------------------------------------------------- Chicago Public Schools Offer $5.2B Budget That Closes $665M Gap Bond Buyer | Jul 6 The financially-strapped Chicago Public Schools system released a $5.2 billion proposed budget for fiscal 2013 that closes a $665 million gap with a property tax hike, operating cuts, and by digging deeply into reserves and draining its unreserved fund balance.

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

In Dependence - Face the Facts

By Bill Frezza, originally posted in Forbes Magazine
Lamenting The Lost Legacy Of Independence Day
Why do we still celebrate Independence Day? Is it a lingering habit, a mindless bit of nostalgia, a time to indulge in fireworks and barbecues, devoid of any deeper meaning? Can anyone honestly argue that our nation still honors the values, or practices the principles, for which our Founders fought?
Today, most Americans have been trained to be embarrassed by the “extremist” individualist ethos that made the protection of liberty the primary purpose of government. They have been taught to apologize for the shortcomings of the “rich white men” who led the revolution. A majority of Americans now subscribe to an expansive view of government as both great provider and beneficent leveler. Its primary purpose is to redress unequal or unhappy outcomes, regardless of their source, through wealth redistribution on a scale so vast that it mocks the concept “private property.”
As for the causes of revolution, we’ve lost sight of them, too. King George III was a champion of laissez-faire compared to the modern cradle-to-grave entitlement state. The swollen capital city named after the man who won our freedom now claims the prize for erecting “a Multitude of new offices” bent on sending out “Swarms of officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.” If there is a field of endeavor that the federal government does not yet regulate, subsidize, or penalize, just wait. A new law is only a “crisis” away.
Have these new offices been imposed on us by some malevolent force that has undermined the workings of democracy? No. We the people ceaselessly demand new offices at an accelerating rate. The majority of Americans vote as if they believe that massive new government programs— created by incomprehensibly complex laws and administered by increasingly unaccountable bureaucrats—can solve an expanding array of “problems” which our Founders would have surely concluded were the proper province of civil society and not the sovereign state.
The King was criticized for unjustly imprisoning seamen. Today, our federal and state governments imprison more of our fellow citizens than any totalitarian regime in history—the vast majority for violating a futile prohibition on the possession, sale, or consumption of substances our Founders would not have thought twice about. Vast portions of our youth are thus rendered permanently unemployable, branded as felons and outcasts with nowhere to turn but a life of crime. And yet we persist in this folly, unable to admit that drug prohibition has been as huge a failure as alcohol prohibition.
And taxes? The Founders knew a tax when they saw one—and there were very few they could abide, with or without representation. Thanks to a Supreme Court that long ago gave up defending the Constitution, we now have a chameleon levy that is not a tax when politically inconvenient yet magically becomes a tax when seeking constitutional muster. As if we didn’t have a wide enough variety of taxes, this new tax is designed to penalize anyone who refuses to participate in a great communal project designed to make every citizen even more deeply dependent on the government.
Little by little, the home of the brave and the land of the free has become a nation of rent-seeking dependents clamoring for their share of state largess. Even before the latest entitlement blowout called Obamacare, we crossed the line where more than half of Americans receive some kind of assistance from the government every month, paid for by the fewer than half that still pay income taxes. As we move into the future and the number of dependents grows while the taxpayer pool shrinks, we call the result social justice rather than its old name: theft.
Our forefathers shed blood rather than render unto King George. Yet today we madly mortgage our nation’s future to foreign powers, piling debt upon debt without limit or thought as to how it will be repaid. These debts ensnare our children and grandchildren even as we stop having them, confident in the knowledge that the government will take care of us in our old age, so why bother with the trouble and expense?
If we were still a nation capable of shame with enough intellectual integrity to call things as they are, if we hadn’t debauched our language as badly as our currency, if we had the courage to look in the mirror and see how woefully we have squandered our Founders’ legacy, this Fourth of July would be a day not of celebration but of atonement.
Give some thought to what we have lost as we mark another In Dependence Day. May providence have mercy on our nation, lest we end up getting what we deserve.

Merrill Lynch 200 years of charts.

The Great Lies

Here are 2 of the great lies, debunked.
Exposing truth

1) The Stock Market has the best returns.
2) Forex is the Largest Market, and that liquidity will protect you

Reality--A good trader can do well in the S&P market, but 95% don't.     The S&P 500 is constantly replacing it's components to be the best of the field.   Since 2000, about 300 of the S&P 500 have changed.    That makes it look like S&P performance is good.    It encourages the buy and hold, the whittle you away with fees approach.   The blind faith until a 50% drop causes you to call your brokerage and say enough is enough - liquidate.  

It's a scam, well hidden for the most part. But the re-balancing of the components is where the real evil comes in.    The long term returns of the S&P are no where near where they are presented to be.

2) Forex is the "largest" market in the world.    You can be protected by all that "liquidity".  

Reality--Total bunk, and when you see pictures of cutesy girls sitting on the floor, trading FX on a laptop, doing a high five or silly indication that they banked coin, you can rest assured that market it being setup for a fleecing.    And fleece they do, I have seen stops of mine just completely "stolen" by, watching price on their software AND simultaneously watching price on Interactive Brokers, and not only did the price diverge from IB (in the direction towards a large stop I had), The price really never even got close to my stop and in the blink of an eye, they literally just stole my stop.   Don't trust those bastards.

Now back to the "largest market".      There is corrency moves made for legitimate business purposes, and indeed these are large, but the reported size of Forex markets is based upon most Forex trading at 100 times leverage.    A bet of $1000 is $100,000 on the forex market, and believe me if you place a bet in this "humooungous market" of $1000, you will instantly have computers targeting your stop, I have seen it in real life numerous times....its just like an antelope being dropped in the outskirts of a circle of lions.     Sheesh, they will chase your stop even for $200.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Running a Real Business

From ZeroHedge

"Self-employment places a premium on professionalism and results. Unlike offices filled with managers and employees, nobody cares about your problems, conflicts, complaints about the common-area fridge or your attendance at meetings. Once you've been self-employed for a while, and you only hire/work with other self-employed people, then you look back on conventional work places as absurdist theaters of schoolyard politics, tiresome resentments and child-parent conflicts acted out by self-absorbed adults."

steveo here---
now compare this level of absurdity and square it to equal governmental work.      

More ZH comments 

Well I own a corporation and have a small group of employees now, and I have run various companies on and off for 25 years. I want to comment on this.
It is not that expensive to hire people.  I can hire an employee by using the various "Help Wanted" services, but finding a good employee is pretty hard.  When I was a lot younger, in the 1980s, employees had more interest in coming to work to actually WORK.  I am very discouraged by the American worker.  I believe this is a phenomenon others have experienced.
Here are some employees I've had to deal with lately:
• The Computer geek, good with computers, age: early 20s.  Is extremely "sensitive" and easily hurt feelings, any little thing and he's "hurt" poor little thing.  He brings a blanket to work and does his code with his blanket on his lap.  When he's feeling jovial he repeats quotes from South Park, and he spends all of his non-working hours playing video games.  Many times he does not come to work, I think due to gaming all-nighters.  He is a compulsive liar, always coming up with some story about why he can't come to work.  I put up with it and finally he just quit without saying a word, will not answer his phone, will not return any emails.  Did not even come get his final paycheck.  He was probably hurt by something someone said.  He lives with his mommy and daddy.
• Lady in 40s with kids, constantly texting and talking on cell phone at work.  Serious text addict.  I trained her and she was accurate at work but would go off and disappear and text and talk during the work day.  When work slowed down she just pretended to work.  A big pretender.  I had to let her go.
• Well educated guy in late 30s who fashions himself as a real political expert, "plugged in" to all the phony right winger radio warmonger zionists.  Has never heard of AIPAC but hey, he's plugged in, and always bringing up issues brought to him from his radio messiahs, and calling people "libs".  Every thought in his head is about libs libs and libs this or that.  What a waste!  I told him to take a break for a few days because work got slow, and he immediately filed for unemployment.  Some right winger eh.
• Lady with all kinds of food allergies and diets and phobias of every type, I could not keep track of all that.  One day she was laying on the floor.  I encouraged her to resign so she did.
My best employee by far is an African American very cool guy I trust 100% he is my age mid-40s and has a work ethic that is hard to come by.  I'd love to sell my business, it is quite profitable, and give him a nice cut so we can both get out of the racket.
Tue, 07/03/2012 - 17:32 | 2585301 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture
Good accounts, I hired an IT tech from a corporation and took him out on one job, I did the Job and showed him what I expected, he quit.
I caught another hire sleeping on the job while I was running around doing all the work.This was in my business.
Working for a Dr. as an office manager. Had a Latino, gay, tried to hit on me and he was accident prone and many times late with excuses. Fired him.
After having women working, I would not hire them again. Always having problems at home, have to pick up kids, kids sick. etc.
Glad I'm out of those businesses.

Links to the Constitution and Amendments and AoC

Happy 4th!

All below are Word Docs, they are easy to find on the net, if you don't have Word.

You can read all the docs below in less than 1 hour.   Misinformation is rampant concerning these basic laws of the US.   Read them, you will be really glad you did.

Presented below are text versions from the Articles of Confederation 1777
This is like the "Original Constitution"

Articles of Confederation


Constitution of the United States

Amendements to the Constitution, NOTE that the first 10 are collectively referred to as the "Bill of Rights",  The BOR was ratified on December 15, 1791

Amendments 1 to 27 First 10 are Bill of Rights

Print them, go get a sun tan and read them.   They really aren't that complicated.  Really, a 7th grader could understand them.

HEY and just in case you got that "all men are created equal" thing stuck in your was here, in the Declaration of Indpendence.   Just keep in mind, this was just a declaration, it is not part of the rules by which we are supposed to live.

Quiz on 1st Amendment and Constitution

Independence Day Quiz

OK, no trading blog post, here goes a Quiz on the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America.

Take the Quiz Here, can you get 20 for 20?

Below one is interesting. Lobbying, and "capture" of the Government, at many levels, is perhaps the biggest problem facing America, in addition to "installation" of ex-industry execs into Government, and awarding of cushy high paying job to ex Gov officials in industry. The conflict of interest is obvious. Give it the 7th grader test. In 5 minutes could you explain the facts to a 7th grader, and what conclusion would they draw...for sure, obvious conflict of interest.

So how do we eliminate/regulate lobbying and gifts, while not gutting this portion of the Amended Constitution? Think and rant on these things weedhopper.

And here is a later comer....a Constitution quiz

Monday, July 2, 2012


What is that word, turning lead into gold?

I figured out how to turn copper and aluminum--- 18 used solar panel and scrap copper (not much) into 2 ounces of gold.

I paid some workers to scrap 18 used solar panels and got a stack stack.

Pretty cool, but the mass ratio is still amazing

Sunday, July 1, 2012

To Da Moon

New post is in green at bottom.

On May 6th I had this to say about the moon cycle....and some really cool moon pictures too, shot by yours truly.

 Sometimes the market are totally in tune with the moon, they haven't been for a long long time, way longer than usually.

On June 16th I posted

Moon Shot

Funny how I posted this, and it was so true, as soon as something becomes stops working 

New moon soon, time for moon to start working again

Here is the link

And back in October I thought the moon would take a break again --here was my basis

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Peter Dag and the Moon

Hey, I love the stuff that Dag does....simple, business cycle stuff, and it is never "different this time".  But when ol' Dag starts pointing out the moon thing, I got to think maybe moon is going to take a break for a while.

Ya need proof---here is the post

Well, the moon kind of "snook" back into play.    See some of my previous posts on moon cycle likely to come back into  vogue

Coming up July 4th moon, just when retail is ready to jump in long, fearing that they could miss the run into the presidential cycle....note to self....take profits on Tuesday, be ready to buy back long on Friday or Monday after retail been b-slapped.   HBB just loves doing the lions chasing the antelope in the tall brush where their buddies lay in wait.

Another Real Story of Bad Trading, of not Owning the Trade

Lesson learned:

From the school of hard knocks, Hawaii Trading style

Had one of my best trading runs the last 14 weeks or so up to June 1, 2012, consistent profits, bagging each of 2 accounts.   A Bag is a 100% gain.   Then went on a trip with some large put positions on, knowing that where I was going I had land line internet and a nice wireless setup too, but on a brand new MacBook that I was just getting familiar with, so I kept my positions open, salivating at my recent success and wanting more.   

Monday came and the market played exactly into my hands although all internet was unavailable and I spent time checking MY systems, assuming that it couldn't be the reliable paid for land line internet.   Missed Monday completely.   No idea what the market did, but did get a hold of the internet company who was going to send someone "that night".

No one came.   Tuesday came and waiting through morning, no one came, called again....going through the same insultingly stupid computer prompted trouble call service, and then got a "someone will call you message only".   Never was able to talk to a human.   No idea what the market did---busy on other projects.

Wednesday came, raised hell and got someone out that night and they found several problems and fixed them with new equipment.     Logged in and found what would have been a windfall on Monday....on a perfect pattern that I would salivate to see, AND I guarantee would have closed the position rather than get greedy.     And by Wednesday close the huge profit had turned to a medium size loss, but it still looked like a Fibo retracement and I "wishfully thought" it should go back down so I could get my profits back.     That was June 4, 5 ,6.    

I got stuck in the position because I wasn’t taking 100% responsibility for the trade…it wasn’t me causing the loss….IT WAS THE INTERNET COMPANY!

I closed my position on June 23, owning up to substantial losses, creating the worst 3 weeks of the year.    And good thing...if I had stayed in they would have become huge losses by today.    They were bad and hurtful but not crippling.

But the reality is that instead of taking decisive action, I was placing blame on the internet company, and that placement of blame led me into a hope that my profits would come back because "it wasn't my fault".   

And that created a deer in the headlights issue.  

OWN YOUR TRADE, all of it, no excuses.   No matter what the market throws at you, no matter what your broker throws at you, no matter what your internet service provider throws at you, no matter what your computer throws at you, no matter what the central bankers and their buddy bankers/brokers throw at you, no matter what the purchased media throws at you, no matter what your other obligations throws at you.   

There are factors beyond our control, no doubt.     None us know what happens next ---the only thing that matters is what you do when what happens next, happens.
No blame, no hindsight, no wishful thinking, and control your greed, especially during the extreme events.    OWN YOUR TRADE, 100% come what may.

Owning your own trade has NOTHING to do with any false pretense that one can control everything or that somehow you are responsible for everything.     It has nothing to do with that.    Owning your own trade is simple, AND ONLY, a state of mind for increasing your trading profits.     That's it, don't over think it.        

Sometimes I swing back to the idea that I just should have closed all positions before going on a vacation, but even that thought, as legitimate as it is, IS ALSO AN EXCUSE to not own the trade.

OWN YOUR TRADE!  And that’s about all I have to say about that.
Blogging at
Hawaii Trading

Trading Pyschology, by Aussie Larrikin

This one posted on Slope, by BDI, although it appears that JesterX The Aussie Larikin is the presenter of the video.   

He describes some extreme scenarios where his emotions and greed and maybe just being tired caused a huge loss even though his initial bets were properly placed.  

Decision Making at the extreme, a very good point.