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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Doctor Copper Could Be Signaling a Large Bull Move

MISH had this posted up with thoughts of a "breakdown" in copper.

But clearly, this is a Bullish Wedge, that would mean an upshoot for copper, and likely an improvement in world economy.     I'll take it if so.

Drop a comment, see if they work.    I haven't logged in, in a few months.  

I have completed the restoration of a $100k fishing and excursion boat.    Construction estimating skills don't help in estimating duration of boat work, LOL, well maybe they do....take your best estimate, then multiply by 300%.

Caught a 28" Lake Trout on the first trip out.   Very tasty smoked.

steveo out    


Thursday, July 17, 2014

How I Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium

Update  3-24-13 -- A friend had asked "how do you buy gold" and I did a write-up for him, and for your benefit also.    I have quite a bit of experience.

With the continued shenanigans in the EU and Cyprus, including the threat of direct theft from insured bank accounts, well just about anything goes.

This article is how I buy Precious Metals (PM)

Any form of "electronic wealth is suspect, easily diverted / stolen at a keystroke.

Owning hard assets in a potentially deflationary world (aka Pretcher / MISH) could result in large losses, however with the whole world running their printing presses to Kingdom come, the chance of inflation seems no-brainer low.

Suggested Inflation Hedges

1) Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
2) Direct Ownership of Oil Wells
3) Direct Ownership of Solar Electric producing assets
4) Ownership of Real Estate, especially income producing real estate.
5) Direct Ownership of a business that can last through recession and inflation.



_________________________________________________________________________

Here it is in a nutshell:  

Buy
  • One Ounce gold Bars
  • Junk Silver, pre-1964 dimes, quarters, halves
  • Platinum and Palladium in 1 ounce coins, the only real choice is Canadian Maples
Allocations?


Junk silver up to $15,000 or 15% of your overall "Stack"
And the rest in Gold Bars and then some Canadian Maple Coins or Krugerrand Coins.
Up to 10% of your total stack in Platinum and Palladium

Stay away from numismatic collector coins, they all have “good stories”, just stay away unless you are a real coin collector.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
GENERAL COMMENT -- BUY THE MOST METAL YOU CAN
Whatever PM you buy, always look at markup over spot price of the metal (use futures for spot price).  Get the most metal you can! 
Finviz is an OK place for futures spot price.
 
Always try to get the most metal for your money.    

Don’t be impressed with coins that come with a high markup (aka premium) over spot like the American Eagle gold coins.   On the Eagles sell price $1688 when spot is at $1614, that’s a big premium.  Also watch out for shipping and insurance costs, the good dealers I recommend are always reasonable on this, unscrupulous ones may hit you with a big cost that effectively raises your premiums.   Oftentimes, orders over $10,000 or $20,000 will get free shipping and insurance, but the shipping and insurance is not really large anyway, you shouldn't pay more than $25 or so---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silver:
For starters, get $5,000 to $15,000 in pre-1964 silver dimes and quarters, this is called JUNK SILVER and there is nothing junky about it.  A quarter is roughly worth $6, a dime is 2/5 of that, around $2.50 for notional thinking.    You need this for barter and making change in the coming New World Disorder. (NWDTM)
Junk silver is sold by “Face Dollar”, so a Face Dollar of Quarters would be 4 quarters, or 10 dimes.   The weight of silver in dimes and quarters is exactly proportional to the USD face value of the coin.    10 dimes has exactly as much silver as 4 quarters.
A face dollar of either Half Dollars, quarters or dimes will be around .715 ounces of Silver depending on the wear on the coins, although it won't vary much.
     
Silver is heavier than you would think.   You can’t put $20,000 in a backpack, grab your bug-out bag, and just hit the road.    For notional thinking, Gold is about $25,000 per pound, so you could easily transport $100k of wealth.
 
Silver also comes in
1)      Government minted coins (credible but higher markup)
2)      “Rounds” which are round coin like objects but that aren’t minted by a Government, these are sold at lower premium, but in a Mad Max world you might have issues “proving” them to be real.  
3)      10 ounce bars, very cool, roughly $300 notional, stack well.   You can also get 100 ounce and even 1000 ounce bars, but dont.   

Many people are recommending a higher percentage of silver in your portfolio than gold in dollar value.    They think that because the long term ratio of gold to silver pricing is high, that silver can appreciate more than gold.   But silver is also “poor man’s gold” and the poor man is “retail” and retail panics when things get a little sketchy.    Also silver does not make it easy to transport serious wealth, whereas gold does.  

Gold: 
Your main choices are Government Minted coins and little 1 Ounce bars.    

There are also large bars, but why get a large bar?   For ego?  There is no real benefit in getting large bars, and bars may need a certification when you sell them.   There have been a few instances in which Tungsten was put into the middle of the Gold Bar.  Tungsten is almost exactly the same density as gold, its just .02% heavier than gold, so they can hide it inside the gold.

The bars have a lower premium than the coins in general, as low as $16 over spot, although that low is rare, under $30 premium per ounce is normal.   Also the bars have one benefit that you may not think important at this time, but it may be very important in the future.   Gold in the form of a “monetary instrument” has different reporting requirements when transporting out of country. 
  
Many experts say that you should diversify the country in which you hold assets, indeed, why put all your eggs in one basket?   For sure, all countries will competitively devaluate their currency until some event causes them to stop printing money and devaluating their currency, AND they will also try to prevent wealth from leaving their country, AND the US will beat all other countries over the head with financial and military might.  
On the other hand it is also good to have a bunch of gold close to you.    Gold storage is a complex matter, and not part of this treatise.
Some gold coins are .9999 pure gold.   The only problem with this is that pure gold is soft and it may get scratched in “use”, but how much use are you really going to do?   How often are you going to have a $1600 coin kicking around in your pocket.
 
1)      The US Eagle is 22 carat, it has 91.67% gold, 3% silver, 5.33% copper
2)      The US Buffalo is 24 carat, or 99.99% pure gold, it will scratch more if that is a concern, and premiums vary quite a bit.  For a pure gold coin, I am going to go with a Canadian maple, which sells with a lot less premium.
3)      Canadian Maple – 24 carat, or 99.99% gold, great coin, great credibility, reasonable premium over spot
4)      The “Krug”, or classic Krugerrand from South Africa.   A great coin with some of the lowest premium on well regarded gold coins.   The Krug is 22 carat,  91.76% gold the rest is copper, an alloy known as “Crown Gold”.   It does contain a full ounce of Gold though.
5)      There are others, the Austrian Philharmonic, and the Chinese Panda.   I think the Panda looks silly and have no interest in supporting China’s PM market.

Gold Bars
These are the lowest premium of all gold products ($16 over spot is the best I have seen this decade, $30 premium is normal).   Buy always the 1 Ounce bar, larger bars are for ego or seriously large portfolios (over $10M). 

  1. Perth Mint,
  2. Austrian Credit Suisse, 
  3. Royal Canadian Mint, and the 
  4. Pamp Suisse are all you need to know.
Platinum and Palladium Coins: 

Why not?  Diversify a bit, I bought platinum in November 2012 when one of my recommended dealers had a good bull session with me and stated “I like being diversified into a metal that is produced in a volatile country like South Africa”.   Indeed, just days afterwards, a violent strike hit a major producer in South Africa and the metal surged.   The Canadian Maple Platinum has a reasonably low premium, it is a $50 “face value” as a real Government coin, worth around $1700 in minted cost.   A premium around $60 per Maple is normal.  For Palladium, the premium is around $30 per Maple.   

The PGM Platinum Group Metals are not "monetary metals" per se, so they may not be as useable in a SHTF Armageddon scenario, however, I am assuming that after Armageddon, that some normalcy will return in my lifetime.
Jewelry
Some have suggested that jewelry is a good investment, although the “minting” value of jewelry often takes the price far beyond the “melt value”.    I don’t buy into this jewelry thing, as proving the purity could be quite troublesome in the future.   There are methods of testing purity, which involves putting acids on your gold, and there seems to be no need to cross this bridge.   There are also electronic testers, which are brutally expensive, and just silly to even consider unless you were a large dealer.
24 karat (millesimal fineness 999) – almost pure gold- These carat weighting apply to coins also
22 karat (millesimal fineness 916)
20 karat (millesimal fineness 833)
18 karat (millesimal fineness 750) – 75% pure gold
15 karat (millesimal fineness 625)
14 karat (millesimal fineness 585)
10 karat (millesimal fineness 417) – 41.7% pure gold
9 karat (millesimal fineness 375)
Copper (Don't buy copper as a speculation)
There are companies selling copper bars, with insane large markups over spot.  Personally I think this is a silly form of speculation, especially given the insane markups.   The bursting of the Chinese housing bubble will pressure copper for a long time to come.  Housing is 40% of all copper use.   At $3 per pound, compared to silver at $480 per pound, and gold at $25,000 per pound, those PM’s are much more practical.    Although I did scrap some 16 solar panels, and turned the copper into 2 nice shiny gold coins!
Copper pennies---I don’t roll up my pennies, I put them into vases that get really heavy.   I did a representative sort for kicks, the 1909 to 1982 pennies actually are worth 2.23 cents in melt value, the 1983 to current pennies are actually 95% zinc, 5% copper and have a melt value of  0.48 cents.
I got 819 grams of pennies in my sample
1983 and later was 615 grams, 198 pennies or 75.1%
1982 and earlier was 204 grams, 65 pennies or 24.9% and one of these was a “wheaty” believe it or not.
At 3.11 grams per penny, my sample size was 263 pennies.  1 Wheaty.
198*.48=95 cents
65*.223=145 cents
Total value of 263 pennies in 240 cents face value, sheesh!   I don’t think sorting pennies is a real business model, however, why not keep them?   It cost more money to get rid of them in time and gas!

Confidentiality—

There are certain types of transactions that require the PM dealer to report to the government in PM transactions.   The reportable transactions are very rare.   Some dealers will report only the essential reports, and other dealers will come right out and state that they WILL be reporting your transaction almost all the time.    Which do you prefer?   You should read the dealers policy and question them when you call in to buy.    There will be tax consequences when you sell, if you ever sell.   Gold and silver are generally treated as a collectible with exceptions, and subject to a high 28% Capital Gains tax rate. 

Taxes

--Got to admit, the tax issues are complex and I have spent a few hours at different times trying to get a handle on it.    I saw this on a retirement website, now people are holding PM's inside 401k and IRAs, I have no idea the physical logistics of that.    

There are exceptions . Certain bullion coins issued by the U.S. (generally the American Eagle gold, silver, and platinum coins) and any coins issued by any of the states are not collectibles. Also gold, silver, platinum, or palladium bullion are not collectibles when the metal equals or exceeds the minimum fineness required under a regulated futures contract and is in the physical possession of a qualified trustee.

Clear as mud?   Yep, let me know when you got it figured out.
 

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Precious Metals Breakout Time?

Sorry for being absent for so long, I have been working on "real things"

Every month or every few weeks I tally my diverse Precious Metals assets.  

  1. Gold
  2. Silver
  3. Palladium
  4. Platinum

In the last 2 months, the grand total has never deviated more than .25% in all of 4 data points. 

That is extremely odd, and tells me that perhaps, this is a pause before a breakout.

Food is way up already this year and will get worse, California drought, overall more eratic weather.    I have been setting up my food production systems and orchard.   Been Hella busy on many projects.   

Continued to invest in hard assets, even doing direct lending on fix and flip mortgage with strong financials, rate of return around 20% per annum. 

Thursday, January 9, 2014

The Russell with Irrational Exuberance

After a steep climb from what is now going on 5 freaking year, out of the March 11 2009 hole....now the Russell has left the steep channel and it pounding up in an every steeper channel.

This is surely the sign of a pullback coming, but just arbitrarily shorting this market has been just deadly.    I will set some "sell below orders" and of course miss some or much of the move.

It is such a shame that the Big Gov is in such a predicament that they have to act like this.   




Monday, January 6, 2014

10 Commandments

HOW MOSES GOT THE 10 COMMANDMENTS
God went to the Arabs and said,
'I have Commandments for you that will make your lives better.'

The Arabs asked, 'What are Commandments?'
And the Lord said, 'They are rules for living.'

'Can you give us an example?'
'Thou shall not kill.'
'Not kill? We're not interested.'

So He went to the Blacks and said, 'I have Commandments.'
The Blacks wanted an example, and the Lord said,
'Honor thy Father and Mother.'
'Father? We don't always know who our fathers are..
We're not interested.'

Then He went to the Mexicans and said,
'I have Commandments.'
The Mexicans also wanted an example, and the Lord said 'Thou shall not steal.'
'Not steal? We're not interested.'

Then He went to the French and said,
'I have Commandments.'
The French too wanted an example and the Lord said, 'Thou shall not commit adultery.'
'Sacre bleu!!! Not commit adultery? We're not interested.'

Finally, He went to the Jews and said,
'I have Commandments ....'
'Commandments?' They said, 'How much are they?'
'They're free.'
'We'll take 10.'

There. That should piss off just about everybody.
Keep smiling in the New Year!!

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Global Warming Scientists Stuck in Irony (I mean Ice)

Funny how Main Stream Media completely misses the Irony.

These scientists, on a ship to go "prove" global warming got stuck in the Ice.

Someone forgot to tell them that Global Warming is a farce meant to transfer wealth through various cap and trade schemes. AND that we have record levels of ice this year.  

But Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at Australia’s University of New South Wales, said it was “silly” to suggest he and 73 others aboard the MV Akademic Shokalskiy were trapped in ice they’d sought to prove had melted. He remained adamant that sea ice is melting, even as the boat remained trapped in frozen seas.

Or maybe their handlers told them to go out of their way to cover up the real purpose of the mission.  Seems obvious, as the chief explicitly says there goal is to prove global warming, and he has some other choice words......

Turney later told FoxNews.com the ice surrounding his ship is old, rather than recently formed, and likely from a particular 75 mile-long  iceberg that broke apart three years ago. Climate change may have prompted the iceberg to shatter and float into the previously open sea where the mostly Australian team finds itself stranded, Turney said.

Makes you same hmmmmmm

http://video.foxnews.com/v/3001225932001/52-passengers-rescued-from-stranded-ship-in-antarctica/

“Cute how these Warmists who hate fossil fuels take a trip to the Antarctic to show just how horrible fossil-fueled climate change is, then need rescue from their fossil-fueled trip by other fossil-fueled ships and helicopters, which still can’t rescue them,” wrote one blogger on Pirate’s Cove.

As we get pelted with snow in the strongest and hardest hitting winter in 3 decades, I ponder the meaning of global warming in the context massive volcanoes going off this year (cooling effect), sunspots abnormalities (cooling effect).    I think it is safe to say "climate change" is here, and widler weather than what we have seen the last 50 years is coming.     But I think it is also clear that in the past several thousand years, there are plenty of examples of extreme weather, and that just recently (50 years) we have been blessed with fairly steady weather.   

See what happens to food quantities after a few years of horrible weather.   And food prices.

I love how these "scientists" who completely flubbed prediction of the solar minimums that have been occurring, now "understand" what happened and why and by inventing a "new type of cycle", they can continue to steadfastly say that Global Warming is coming.

Hilariously, they state

According to the Gleissberg cycle, the next solar maximum – in about 2024 – will probably be a dud too, but then cycles will become more energetic once again, and any cooling effect the brief downturn has had on Earth's climate will also vanish.
Right.....so it will probably be cool until 2024, but then don't worry....our new Cycle predicts that it will warm up after that!


Sunday, December 22, 2013

3 Peaks and a Domed house

We visited this a few weeks ago, playing out nicely.

End of the World....sell in May, LOL.

And Merry Christmas, By The Way.     Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

 Not my dogs!!

My Dogs




Wednesday, December 18, 2013

After Expiry, Santa will Show Up

This Friday is expiry.   Usually the big moves are done by Wednesday, and then just pumps and dumps on Thursday and Friday to shake out weak hands.

But methinks we get more downside here, into Friday, to burn bulls.     And then the Santa rally.   I was going to do this study, and then saw someone else already did, yeah!     Here it is.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/4390/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-christmas/?utm_source=mcverryreport.com


Monday, December 16, 2013

Middle Class About to be Crushed

This is some pretty good original work.

Going direct to the source data, not just a he said, she said "conspiracy".

The data comes from the Social Security Administration

All the work by Hawaii Trading.     This may be reproduced, but ONLY when giving full credit to Hawaii Trading AND a link to this blog post.


Source data
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2012

Middle Class About to be Crushed

Well, there is one other option:  The Government could decide to make itself smaller, and force ex Government employees into productive jobs, and to bring home all the Military and put them to work building out a new national infrastructure including a modern power grid.   Restoring the Constitution and the Rule of Law would also go a long way towards towards building an Organically Growing society/jobs and business. 

I won't be Holden my breath!

ES Sunday night Shenanigans



Saturday, December 14, 2013

Rant on "My Caller ID has been Hijacked!"

For 3 weeks, people I have been calling have been saying, hey whats up with your phone, your caller ID says Thomas Lotter.   This could be very disturbing to a potential business client, or an existing client who would be wondering what the heck is up….what didn’t you pay your phone bill, now you have to borrow a phone?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I called ATT, big run around as usual. 30 minutes invested.

After talking to a flunky, who said it’s the other carriers problem and that she couldn’t do anything.    She said you have to talk to the “other carriers”.    How many others “I don’t know”.    How can I get a hold of them and what do I say to them?  “I can’t help you with that, it’s the other carriers problem”.   No it’s my problem because potential clients could be very turned off or not even answer the phone if they see an incorrect caller ID.      “There is nothing we can do Sir”

Since the flunky didn’t even have good lies, I asked if she could detail my whole issue to the supervisor so the supervisor could not just call me back, but call me back with an answer.  She said her message system only allowed about 50 characters, all she could say was “customer caller ID not correct”

She had  supervisor call me back 2 hours later (not bad for a Saturday)

She said its not ATT fault, its those other “carriers” who didn’t update their records.

In explaining to her that it is not an update problem, but that is was correct ID and then became incorrect ID.

She said that their database department has sent a request to Time Warner to update their database.    I see….so there is something that ATT can do…..

I asked how.    She said that she had sent an email to ATT database people.  
I asked how did she know that ATT database people sent the request to TW database?

She said, oh it probably didn’t happen yet.
I asked if I could get a record of her request to ATT database people, she said no, that is internal correspondence.

I asked if I could get a phone number for ATT database people so I could verify when they sent the request.   She said the database people don’t talk to customers on the phone.
I asked for an email to the ATT database people, she stated that is proprietary protected information.

I asked her to confirm that the TW database people received the request, she stated she couldn’t do that.

I asked her for a phone or email to the TW database people.      She said she didn’t have that information.

I asked her to check up in 7 to 10 business days, and report back to me if TW updated their records.     She said they don’t provide that service.  

I said what if it get lost in the process, and I lose 2 customers who are put off by having a fake name show up on caller ID, then what-- I call back after 10 days and go through the whole shenanigans again>?   “We can’t control their database Sir”

She continued, I just had another client who had the same type of problem with TW caller ID.        So they are trained to use a deflection….don’t worry because lots of people are screwed just like you.

She said I could call back to ATT in 7 to 10 days to check on things if I liked.  

And these companies make 40% profit margin, whilst most “real” businesses that are not monopolies who capture their government regulators, are happy to end up with 8% to 10%.   They only have to pretend they have any respect for their “captive audience”

Rant Out

Then, after never being able to remember an email from ATT, I receive this 2 minutes after I post up my blog rant.    Wow!