Friday, September 3, 2010

Closed longs to enjoy the weekend, holding QID

The currencies, Cable and Euro, have not followed SPX as expected.   However my long call on SPX

(/ES futures) was spot on.   Not sure if it has more to run.

My call on today's Jobs Report as being "not as bad as expected" and a 1.5% rally today, was pretty good.

It's time for a weekend.   From my point of view, it is quite obvious that people are just getting more and more whacked out, completely losing their senses.

It is very interesting to observe this mass social psychosis, as an observer with "skin in the game".

Astro was implying a SPX run to 1105, and a blog reader emailed in this chart of the Russell.
The overthrow looks perfect, the Astro is completed, but currencies seems to still have legs.

Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday....the perfect wave 2, tiring out bears by time and price, with a final push up to make even the most strident bear capitulate.   PS holding QID from 17.8, but now that my ES futures long "hedge" is gone, The QID could stress me out if market continues higher next week.

This is odd. 

But here is the scary part for bears...EWI released a new monthly Financial forecast.   Of course they are predicting imminent doom, and we all know how the MM's HBB games EWI, ramping against there calls to take money from the bears.

Think of it, how many retail, buy and hold type, long only type, are still playing this market after being whipsawed around for a whole year.   Almost none.   The only source of fresh money for HBB is to game the bears, who are committed as "smart observers" who realize the horrific fundamentals that this country and the whole world face. 

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Fear Factor and the new OSO the Bear Index (from a blog poster), and commodity currencies

Fear Factor, towards the middle of the Bollinger, I don't expect any major moves. Friday can be a "jobs losses not as bad as expected....let's shake out longs down, then rally 1.5% into labor day!"

And at the bottom 2 charts, AUD, a "commodity currency" is outperforming NZD and CAD the other 2 commodity currencies that I track occasionally.   AUD/USD is the most highly correlated pair with the SPX.  These both look like 5 waves up, completed perhaps, maybe check the Fibo and Person Pivot levels for more clarity on that potential turn down point for AUD and SPX

Total market H&S, bond indicators

Need I say More?

Bonds look like ready to tank.
The 1st set of shorters had their head handed to them, with a full retrace to a double top, alternately, TBT had a double bottom.

All the same market, bonds and equities could tank same time...that would fool alot of people.

Will miss market close so going tight stop on longs now.

Check the bond chart on upper right of this blog. Pretty much a no brainer...I mean how much higher can you go in bond price than equivalent of near 0 yield?

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Jobs report right before Labor Day 3 Day Weekend, will probably disappoint.

I will probably reign in my long stops really tight by Friday open.

Jobs report is likely to disappoint.

HBB has used 3 day weekend for extended shenanigans. This rally could be over.

Going flat, except for some long term commodity/gold longs is a great way to enjoy this weekend methinks!


Bearish!!!! Hardly Cable and Euro have legs

SPX price target 1105 per the Astro chart and the currency charts, point that way too.


Not.    Look at the volume.   Timmy and Big Ben must have leaked to HBB that they got more free money coming if they obediently ramp.  

Also since everyone knows that September is the worst month for stocks, that was the perfect opportunity to blast some bears.   I closed out my QID yesterday at 18.94 and bought it back today on a stink bid for 17.8.

I am bearish on TOS though.  This really stinks.

QQQQ and the expected Ramp Job, Frog Boil perchance to come

Haven't looked at QQQQ in a while.
I reminisce to 2008 when QQQQ was around these levels and a friend asked if I thought QQQQ was overvalued.   I replied, that POS was overvalued at 35!

The expected, and much awaited climb in Equities took place so far today.

The ramp was steep....that's how the MM's do it boyz,  if you are short---you stand there like a deer in headlights hoping that it was a blowoff top and it will soon come down, then they meander the tape back and forth upward, like in a slow frog boil, trying to reach your time patience and uncle point.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Rampant Fraud S&P Extorting US Gov and is any Trader Winning?

There are some other stories out there on how S&P is threatening to downgrade US Debt, hmmm, at the same time their blatant fraud that caused untold Trillions in damages to those fed the lies is being reviewed.  


And think of this one----is there a single trader out there that any of you know of who is saying....hey I am up 40% this year, even 20%, even 10%.    Maybe there are a few, let me know.

This is not a "normal" market.

Gap fill on ES and Cable becoming non-correlated with SPX

That may have been on obligatory swat down after the gap fill.
Yesterday daily volume was low.   Ramps are cheap to do, and no one wants to stand in their way.

I have noticed more and more divergences from Cable and SPX, and this month their correlation is becoming very low, not sure what to make of that.   AUD/USD is way more correlated, I guess I have to start keeping an eye on those Aussies.
Interesting all the new highs on "misc financial".   Other than that the new lows on healthcare, services, and technology are notable.

Over 13 weeks, Insurance/Life and S&L Bank have been body slammed.   Russell quite slammed compared to S&P and Dow, Dow down only 1.9% over 13 weeks

Check the chart below.   Trading on E-trade is kind of a joke, but for long swing positions, it can be nice to "set and forget" for a week.   They do have some nice summary tables like shown below, and a good look at put call, as well as data export to Excel.  

I set a stink offer for QID, and it hit nicely at open,  Could have gone higher with my price, but out of that trade and looking to buy it back at lower price on expected rally in US equities.

Some disparity between Cable, Euro, and SPX today.  Japan down over 3% last night on worries over their strong currency.

The egg above and below is the same, and was first drawn in fall with 3 touch points. See the link below, open in new window, and compare to the egg as it has evolved. In perfect fashion, the market has ramped up higher than expected it could.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Conversation from Daneric blog (one of the best for sure)

How, if at all, should the year-long, massive outflow of retail money from the market play into our perceptions of what certain waves SHOULD look/feel like?
I don't know exactly how things will play out, but just based on where the mutual fund cash levels are (historically low at about 3.5-4%), I think the point of recognition will be swift. By the time people realize it might be time to be in cash they might close redemptions at many of the mutual funds because it would cause forced liquidation. That panic should be the meat of minor 3 of intermediate 1 and take us down close to the 666 lows, maybe 750 or so. Then we can probably experience the last hurrah rally with the government and fed using everything left in their arsenal to produce intermediate 2 up and then everything falls apart in intermediate 3 down. That might be where the bond market bursts and everything goes into commodities and maybe cash. It would be the deflation followed by hyper inflation in commodity prices as people lose faith in the currency. It will dawn on them that they aren't going to get paid back in anything worth something. Either they won't get paid back or the dollars they get paid back with will be worthless (that's how the bond bubble will likely play out). Stocks will be crushed just like they were in Argentina, Iceland, and other government debt defaults.

Long ES and a neat Fear Factor

Probably with me buying this panic bottom long, Armageddon must surely be around the corner. Long it shall be, hedging some nice gains on QID.

New site - semi astro, and "The Mail indicator"

Last year, I would say we were receiving 20 pieces of mail a day.

We were also using direct mail advertising for our own business.

We are down to 2 to 5 pieces of mail a day.   And that drop just happened in the last 2 weeks.

We also stopped our direct mail advertising, because it wasn't paying for itself, much less generating a profit. 

This economy is coming to a screeching halt, especially in Hawaii.

BOJ main driving force

BOJ said they will "inject" $10T yen, don't get too excited, that is only $100 B USD roughly using the old school 100 to 1 ratio.

So this temporary dollar strength my be, well, temporary.   I still expect Cable and Euro to hit target as shown below.    Time will tell.

As annoying as this market it, my one trading position QID, enjoyed the 2% intraday drop.   Glad I slept through that early ramp job.

Eur/GBP chart from verifies what we kind of knew already....the Euro is weaker than the GBP.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Cable and Euro Acting as Expected

Gets me nervous when I am in tune with this fractured blimpy market.    Just because I am paranoid, does not mean that HBB is not out to get my money.

Joking aside, the main currencies that I am following, the British Pound, aka Cable, and the Euro are sneaking upward, dragging SPX with them.   In reality they kind of drag each other, sometimes SPX (or /ES futures) leads.    When they diverge greatly, something big is up.

Europe open tonight should be instructive.   In keeping with the market maneuvers since the "Great Recession" started, continue to expect significant moves in the market on the weekends, holidays, or nighttime trading.   Those are the same times the Black Swan will show up.

We all can use a good spotter at times.

Finally, this take on Cable from Carlos, who just started a "sub-blog" for Forex only. Go visit him and tell him steveo sent you.

And get a good laugh out of this...mark to myth, extend and pretend, and predicted fake earnings.....