Saturday, November 19, 2011

Flat into Weekend

Completely flat into weekend, busy with personal activities, and don't feel like gambling, as I probably can't monitor the market, any moves could be quickly reversed. 

Some great pictures from

I have some experience with the Chinese, did business with them in around 1995, learned a bit of language, visited.   But I never bought into this China is Great, bubble.   Somehow this "art" from China reinforces that idea.   I guess "red china" is a reality based on the red toilets!? LOL

Plenty of powerful forces in the universe.   Magnetic Storms, Gamma Rays, Neutrons flying faster than light (maybe), Sunspots and Magnetism.    And the human ego, ignoring all that doesn't place humans at the center of the universe.   Open your eyes, get away from the TV, get away from over reading blogs!    Go hiking, clear your head.    Take a moment to "Watch the thinker", there is a natural mechanism that occurs that causes us to "think continuously" because we believe that thinking is work and working is good, and in fact this overthinking obscures the reality in front of us.    Give some non-thought to that, seriously.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Channel Play

It is clear that Euro and Cable have broken out of their steep down channels upwards.

That means Equities up.

However, USD is at a crossroads, signs say Bucky down for now, but it could surprise.  

No large bets over the weekend, might hold a few futures long on ES say.

Santa rally is a statistical favorite, HBB wants their bonuses.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Married to a View, Better to Just Date Them

If this Egg gets any older it is going to be stinky, but until then, I expect indices up.

Closed puts yesterday, very near the bottom.  Tried some longs and got whipsawed and then hunted out.

Saw this NYA chart, and saw that put call was still sky high, took long futures into Friday

Long justification FX and ES

Put call sky high,
New bears
Encouraged by Pretcher
Holiday week coming up.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Put call extremely high--Bears about to be bitchslapped

I hate to be so crude, but it is true.
So much excitement with the big triangle, and a down afternoon, everyone jumping on the bear wagon.

Been a good month, up 48% although was up 52% at one time.   Hedging my puts with futures.

Now that I saw the put call in the slapping zone, I don't want to give back a great month.

This one posted on Daneric, I am pointing it out because of the exuberance, bearish type.   Calling a small transcendence over the line a "break" and certainly, this simple patterns are known by trader and quant alike, and ESPECIALLY the Brits like to game patterns, ramp up before a downturn, and pretend a break before a ramp.  This is not "a break" it might become a break, but flying in the face of super high put call, this is way more likely to be a fakeout, followed by a ramp.

The point is....the being wrong, and the exuberance, now lets see what happens!

# of unfilled gaps

This chart is not mine, but sure is interesting.   The time period is pretty long, but in these historic moments, would sure like to see stuff going back to say 1950.

Infinite News === 3 Charts

I would rather have 3 charts rather than all the news in the world

Fukushima Article Busted Loose by Hawaii Trading, March 16, 2011

When most people weren't hardly aware there was any risk, we pretty much nailed the risk as super high, encouraging evacuation as soon as possible.  

I'll call this the "non-victory" lap of when it sucks to be right.

ES Triangle and Fear Factor

Euro and GBP still look very weak.

I was very lucky, I was at my computer when I saw Euro hit the B133 line and close the short, after which it ROCKETED up to the prior blimp swat down area.

Only a weak retrace so far on the Fear Factor, popping the 38 Fibo

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Makana (Hawaiian Slack Key Guitar) Occupies APEC

that's funny :)



On Nov 15, 2011, at 7:36 PM, Steve O wrote:

From: Steve O
Subject: Good Work!

Message Body:
Great work Makana, best I have seen in the last 3 years, by anyone. You should get a Nobel award for outstanding Occupying.

This mail is sent via contact form on Makana Music

Here is video from the actual performance at APEC

This mail is sent via contact form on Makana Music

1280 would be perfect decption on ES or an actual breakout

Review this carefully

Just something I read

We discussed earlier how such analysis can and often do lead to entrenched opinion which triggers Ego and leads to stubborn defence of one's losing position. It's also a point emphasized in A Taoist Trader course. Let me cite a quote from that course:

Much overcomplicated thinking obfuscates the simplicity and clarity of the real
world. Knowledge must be useful and practical.

In comprehending all knowledge,
can you renounce the mind?

In Taoist philosophy, there are two types of knowledge: useable knowledge that contributes to the achievement of a goal (daily contentment), and knowledge that does not. The only knowledge worth pursuing is the knowledge that serves the purpose. Our ability to adapt to changes in an environment is a double-edged sword. Our mind sometimes accepts external values without skepticism. These values often conflict with our core nature and represent dysfunctional knowledge. However, by using Taoist principles, we can accurately evaluate which knowledge is worth keeping and which should be discarded. 

The amount of information surrounding the markets is mind-boggling. Some of it is useful in the process of decision-making and some serves no useful purpose at all. A trader carefully observes which information helps him navigate the markets and which wastes his time and adds to confusion. Practical usefulness measured by actual performance is a trader's criterion to evaluate which sources should be taken into account and which should be dismissed. A trader must avoid paralysis caused by endless and contradictive information flows. 
If you ever catch yourself questioning simple trading approach merely because of its simplicity, ask yourself: Why are you trading?


The Euro and Cable kept falling, although US Indices did not.

This is a stark change in correlation, and may have only to do with Expiry, or something even bigger, and Expiry is big.   It is important for HBB to steal quarters from the market at all time, every chance they get, that is why expiry is so important to them.

needless to say my puts are not liking this non-correlation but FX shorts are loving it.   I think the Indices will catch up, but I need to really review the charts before getting too firm on that view.
update-my charts are kind of in no-mans land, the SPX triangle is still in play.

The put call is kind of on the low side, especially from the Aug timeframe of whence it has been elevated. 

Expiry games, indeed.

I could see that too, a push higher into Wed of expiry, scaring bears, and then Whammo, so that the numerous call holders don't get paid. 
Austiknight posted on Daneric

Monday, November 14, 2011

3 currency charts

This from Stock Traders Daily

Stock of the Week

Investment Rate

These are big download media files, let me know if you like this stuff.

At least he wasn't shot

Makana Explains Why He Sang Protest Song to APEC Leaders in Hawaii

Hawaiian guitarist Makana says he put his fears aside and listened to his heart when he chose to repeatedly sing his protest song, "We Are the Many," to world leaders gathered for an APEC dinner Saturday.

This other Hawaiian man was actually shot and killed by a 27 year old Federal agent in town for APEC, they were both on the street during late night party times, not anything to do with APEC or the agents job.

The agent was formerly a bean counter type, who through and intergovernmental job change, got to carry a gun.    Local citizens of Hawaii NEVER get a concealed carry permit, yet a federal agent can fly in and carry a gun while he is out partying.   

Word has it that the agent was not charged, and that he was whisked away on an airplane.  

This is not a joke.   Drunk with power.

Black Swan Returneth

 A blogger posted this and said "I need resolution"  here was my response

USD the 80,000 lbs Gorilla in the Room

Between the Euro and the Cable (GBP/USD) they make up almost 70% of the USD index

The Bernoulli Channels on this USD are telling us everything we need to know.

Too many people looking at the S&P Triangle!

This is like that 2009 Head and Shoulders

I would say this is a pretty solid volatility play, buying both puts and calls, and taking profits pretty fast, take 50% leave a runner in place and be ready to leave with a breakeven if the runner turns against you.

Set Puts for Stink Sells

Own some puts, set them to sell at some high prices, higher than last weeks.

Just in case we get some big move down, my target for ES is 1175 Tuesday

Which Triangle is the Right Triangle

And by Right Triangle I don't Mean "Right Triangle"

Classic big move kickoff is 5 hits on the Triangle wall, then out the other side.   That would be down on the SPY.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Commodity Newsletter, Gold, Silver, Uranium free!

We enjoy participating in the BPT blog when actively trading, they often post up patterns in real time.  BPT lets Hawaii Trading occasionally post up some of their materials for free.   Once in a while we also post up some specific trade ideas just as a sample, and usually BPT has 5 to 30 chart justified trade scenarios on their watchlists.    The track record on these watchlist trades is amazingly good, usually with 80% to 90% winning trades.   BUT many of the trade ideas  are thinly traded, tickers you would not otherwise even run across, so in this rampy trade environment it is necessary to be able and willing to close out the trades quickly, or take a 50% profit and let the rest as a runner

Here is a top quality Weekend Commodity Newsletter

Expiry week

This is expiry week, for some reason, those are very important in pushing prices around.

The real fireworks occurs on M,Tu,We  and by Thurs Fri things are pretty much decided already.

Big moves often occur on Monday.

Sunday Bearish Slant

Doctor Copper, Euro, and Great British Pound (aka Cable) are looking decidedly bearish, but maybe one more up day to crush bears who held short over weekend, break their spirit, take their money.

Later on Sunday these charts played out my original prediction of "Bearish Slant"