Sunday, December 22, 2013

3 Peaks and a Domed house

We visited this a few weeks ago, playing out nicely.

End of the World....sell in May, LOL.

And Merry Christmas, By The Way.     Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

 Not my dogs!!

My Dogs

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

After Expiry, Santa will Show Up

This Friday is expiry.   Usually the big moves are done by Wednesday, and then just pumps and dumps on Thursday and Friday to shake out weak hands.

But methinks we get more downside here, into Friday, to burn bulls.     And then the Santa rally.   I was going to do this study, and then saw someone else already did, yeah!     Here it is.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Middle Class About to be Crushed

This is some pretty good original work.

Going direct to the source data, not just a he said, she said "conspiracy".

The data comes from the Social Security Administration

All the work by Hawaii Trading.     This may be reproduced, but ONLY when giving full credit to Hawaii Trading AND a link to this blog post.

Source data

Middle Class About to be Crushed

Well, there is one other option:  The Government could decide to make itself smaller, and force ex Government employees into productive jobs, and to bring home all the Military and put them to work building out a new national infrastructure including a modern power grid.   Restoring the Constitution and the Rule of Law would also go a long way towards towards building an Organically Growing society/jobs and business. 

I won't be Holden my breath!

ES Sunday night Shenanigans

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Rant on "My Caller ID has been Hijacked!"

For 3 weeks, people I have been calling have been saying, hey whats up with your phone, your caller ID says Thomas Lotter.   This could be very disturbing to a potential business client, or an existing client who would be wondering what the heck is up….what didn’t you pay your phone bill, now you have to borrow a phone?


I called ATT, big run around as usual. 30 minutes invested.

After talking to a flunky, who said it’s the other carriers problem and that she couldn’t do anything.    She said you have to talk to the “other carriers”.    How many others “I don’t know”.    How can I get a hold of them and what do I say to them?  “I can’t help you with that, it’s the other carriers problem”.   No it’s my problem because potential clients could be very turned off or not even answer the phone if they see an incorrect caller ID.      “There is nothing we can do Sir”

Since the flunky didn’t even have good lies, I asked if she could detail my whole issue to the supervisor so the supervisor could not just call me back, but call me back with an answer.  She said her message system only allowed about 50 characters, all she could say was “customer caller ID not correct”

She had  supervisor call me back 2 hours later (not bad for a Saturday)

She said its not ATT fault, its those other “carriers” who didn’t update their records.

In explaining to her that it is not an update problem, but that is was correct ID and then became incorrect ID.

She said that their database department has sent a request to Time Warner to update their database.    I see….so there is something that ATT can do…..

I asked how.    She said that she had sent an email to ATT database people.  
I asked how did she know that ATT database people sent the request to TW database?

She said, oh it probably didn’t happen yet.
I asked if I could get a record of her request to ATT database people, she said no, that is internal correspondence.

I asked if I could get a phone number for ATT database people so I could verify when they sent the request.   She said the database people don’t talk to customers on the phone.
I asked for an email to the ATT database people, she stated that is proprietary protected information.

I asked her to confirm that the TW database people received the request, she stated she couldn’t do that.

I asked her for a phone or email to the TW database people.      She said she didn’t have that information.

I asked her to check up in 7 to 10 business days, and report back to me if TW updated their records.     She said they don’t provide that service.  

I said what if it get lost in the process, and I lose 2 customers who are put off by having a fake name show up on caller ID, then what-- I call back after 10 days and go through the whole shenanigans again>?   “We can’t control their database Sir”

She continued, I just had another client who had the same type of problem with TW caller ID.        So they are trained to use a deflection….don’t worry because lots of people are screwed just like you.

She said I could call back to ATT in 7 to 10 days to check on things if I liked.  

And these companies make 40% profit margin, whilst most “real” businesses that are not monopolies who capture their government regulators, are happy to end up with 8% to 10%.   They only have to pretend they have any respect for their “captive audience”

Rant Out

Then, after never being able to remember an email from ATT, I receive this 2 minutes after I post up my blog rant.    Wow!

Friday, December 13, 2013

Gold and Silver are Becoming Hated

It's odd for sure, when fundamentals don't work for years at a time.    Some call them "funnymentals"

But I have seen several articles lately on how Gold is going to $500, Gold going below $1000.

I am afraid to even see what Elliot Wave International might be pimping out.

And GDX, HUI, and GDXJ have been removed from the woodshed, and taken to the cesspool for an additional soaking.


This is the time I am looking to buy Gold.

Palladium is always on my radar, it does well in everything but a Madmax scenario, which honestly, is less than 4% chance of happening.    Plenty of SHTF scenarios will result in far less damage than a MadMaxer.

All that said, Gold, Silver, Platinum, in a downtrend.    Palladium in an uptrend.   Ill do charts soon

I checked 5 ounce silver bars selling in bulk, 100 minimum and they were selling for 8% premium over melt.    Still seems high to me.    But then again, I was buying pre1964 silver coins for a 0.3% premium at one time.  What a deal!

Silver 1963 coins now selling at a 17% markup over melt.    Wow.    

And don't forget....upcoming bull market in pitchforks.    Its a job creator and job reducer, lol.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Russell to break a channel and go down

Any questions, let me know.

Any comments?   Sheesh, no comments in a week, thats weak.

The Classics Fear Factor, Asset Class Total, Bond Indicator

They are implying up from here, but I still think this "shakeout" has not been big enough, tomorrow is expiry on options.     Killing the bulls is the most likely manuever methinks.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Predicted a "scary drop" yesterday, Head and Shoulder on SPX Futures

On Tuesday I wrote

My operant thinking is a scary drop prior to the Rally into Christmas/New Years
Revisiting the S&P Future (ES), one can see an elongated Head and Shoulders Pattern with the Magenta line under the shoulders.

Amazingly, todays drop went right down to the shoulder level, and then bounced, now forming a bear flag.    I think to shake out some bulls, they need a bigger drop.

However this was useful in destroying a lot of potential value in Bull Calls, for expiry in 2 days.    For some reason, it is very important for the Marker Makers (aka Takers) to rule the options market, even though it is notionally smaller than the overall market by orders of magnitude.  

For the Brokers That Be, options are a quick way to make money, even some money from selling the premium, and then by moving monies on the indices to shakeout the options holders or at least get them to expire worthless.  

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Been Bearish a Month

The market seems to act the most "unreasonable" at the most extreme times.  

I mean....bouncing along the upper channel line for a month straight?    Sheesh.

Here is a quick backtest after losing the channel line.

My operant thinking is a scary drop prior to the Rally into Christmas/New Years

Friday, December 6, 2013

Today "Jobs" exuberent pop, was a fake, a perfect backtest of the Channel

I shorted the pre-open. The S&P Futures (ES) showed a perfect pop to the channel line. Not quite a 78 Fibo of the recent downtrend, but I like my Bernoulli Channels better than the horizontal Fibonacci. Bernoulli is my adaptation of Fibonacci principles, but put into uptrends and downtrends, since there are always fundamental headwinds and tailwinds blowing the market. Drop a comment.


And Thinkorswim, man they used to be awesome before the evil empire, TDAmeritrade bought them.    I used to trade on their charts, which were intuitive, had great fills, could even make consistent money trading the nighttime futures.      The charts are still intuitive, but all the rest of what really matters is now crap.   Amazing how the big brokers can destroy the system.   I won't trade on TOS anymore.   But still love the charts.....

Except  this morning....when big moves happen, when it matters the most, if you were only looking at the 15 minute chart, you would have been looking at incorrect data, and been a deer in the headlights, see the lower chart.    Sad.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Taxes -- It's More Than Meets the Eye

Although the Big 3 for most people are Federal Income Tax, State Income Tax, and Property Tax, and added together those can be 30% to 45% of total Gross income. There are a bunch of other "taxes" that we pay, bringing the total cost of supporting your government up to 60% to 85% of everything you make. Sheesh, I would say we need some tax reform! Please add to this list by commenting. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Your Approx Cost Per Year? Description 1 (Cell Phone 911 Fee/Tax) 2 Accounts Receivable Tax 3 Airfare/Airport Tax 4 Alcohol Serving License Tax 5 Building Permit Tax 6 Business and Occupation Tax 7 Capital Gains Tax 8 CDL license Tax 9 Cigarette Tax 10 Corporate Income Tax 11 Court Fines (indirect taxes) 12 Dog License Tax 13 Driving Tax ( Tax on mileage driven, soon) 14 Federal Income Tax 15 Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA) 16 Fire Fee (Tax for square footage protection) 17 Firearms Purchase Task 18 Fishing License Tax 19 Food Production License Tax 20 Food Serving License Tax 21 Fuel permit tax 22 Gasoline Tax (42 cents per gallon) 23 Hunting License Tax 24 Inflation (QE is a TAX) 25 Inheritance Tax Interest expense (tax on the money) 26 Internet Sales Tax 27 Inventory tax IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax) 28 IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax) 29 Liquor Tax 30 Local Income Tax 31 Luxury Taxes 32 Marriage License Tax 33 Medicare Tax 34 Nicotine Tax 35 Parenting Tax (required to get divorced in Massachusetts) 36 Police Fund (Gets you a "support" sticker so you get less tickets) 37 Pot Tax (and NOT the one you sit your ass on) 38 Property Purchasing Filing Taxes 39 Property Tax 40 Real Estate Tax 41 Recreational Vehicle Tax 42 Road Usage Taxes (Truckers) 43 Sales Taxes 44 Savings Tax 45 School Tax 46 Self Employment Tax 47 Septic Permit Tax 48 Service Charge Taxes 49 Social Security Tax 50 Special Tax on Sales of Precious Metals 51 State Income Tax 52 State Unemployment Tax (SUTA) 53 Tax Accounting Fees Tax 54 Telephone federal excise tax 55 Telephone federal universal service fee tax 56 Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes 57 Telephone minimum usage surcharge tax 58 Telephone recurring and non-recurring charges tax 59 Telephone state and local tax 60 Telephone usage charge tax 61 Time Tax (The Cost of Your Time to Understand and Pay Taxes) 62 Toll Bridge Taxes 63 Toll Roads (Turnpikes) 64 Toll Tunnel Taxes 65 Traffic Fines (indirect taxation) 66 Trailer registration tax 67 UN-Affordable Healthcare Tax 68 Utility Taxes (Gas, Water, Electric, Cable, etc.) 69 Vehicle Emissions Testing Tax 70 Vehicle Inspection Tax 71 Vehicle License Registration Tax 72 Vehicle Sales Tax 73 Watercraft registration Tax 74 Well Permit Tax 75 Workers Compensation Tax

Dow following a QE modified "3 Peaks and a Domed House" Pattern, DOW 17800

Some of my best work is "stolen", this idea from Charlie of the Israel division of Hawaii Trading, I did the super positioning and transparency, and ranting.  

It's hard to say Israel and Hawaii in the same sentence.....try it.

Eh, but you know, one Hawaiian brother I can really respect his music (but can't respect that he ate himself to death too young) is Bruddha Iz, Israel Kamakawiwoʻole

Monday, December 2, 2013

Floating Above the Long Term Bernoulli Channel

Odd behavior, 7 trading days outside the Bernoulli.    Often times, there will be just a quick pop type overthrow.     Its a sign of the times....exuberance and QE.  

Methinks this market head down now.     Classic trick...a last minute shakeout to knock out some bulls, and then rally for Santa.    

December is an up month 80% of the time.

Considering selling some PM (from one entity to another) to create a loss for tax purposes.    
The size of the stack remains the same....see how that works?

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Scary Fibo and Flag and Euro getting Strong to 78 Fibo

For PWB a scary prospect for bears, the flag was drawn in May, just drew in the Fibo tonight, perfect match.     Lower chart says we are at the top, at least for now.

Parabolic to pop the B177 outside channel line.        Could this not be a top, sure.    Nothing like endless printing.    Consider that....endless printing.    Kind of like perpetual drinks to a drunken sailor ready for Black Friday.

Currencies and ALL the Hawaii Trading proprietary indicators indicate top is near

Check them out, good stuff, ask questions if you wish, I will respond, no time this second to write up analysis of each one.    For those familiar with Technical Analysis, many of these will speak for themselves.