Shooting Star on ES 3 Day candle, Doctor Copper (Near Bearish Engulfing)

Floating the Pigs

I mean the US indices, floating the PIGS, not Europe

Euro has moved down considerably, Dollar moving up.    Indices trying to hold their new "permanently high plateau" (anyone get that joke)

Copper has broken it's up channel and testing the bottom of the B177 multiple times.   See chart


And they are floating the indices.  For now, I expect a significant drop.  On or shortly after the 3 day weekend!

Doctor Copper says ramp then die, keys to kingdom, SPX in real money wave 3

I can't give away the Breakpoint Trade secrets but they won't mind if I show you where the main indicators are pointing.   One more Nasdaq led bounce and then down?   Sure think so.

Here is Gold priced in real money, Gold.   This is obvious a Wave 3 event, now forming a spastic diamond, which is a continuation pattern most times.   That means down.

ACT showing a top

ACT- Asset Class Total show a very strong indication of channel top

 

 

Last Post 100% of my vacations coincidence with major market drops

I am not joking.   

Take a near money put selling for 1.50, put in a stink bid for 1.1 say....catch it on a blowoff top that might last 2 hours.

Vacation starts technically on Thursday

Consider, HBB loves to force big move on 3 days weekends, can people off guard, make them panic Monday morning.

Last Post 100% of my vacations coincidence with major market drops

I am not joking.   

Take a near money put selling for 1.50, put in a stink bid for 1.1 say....catch it on a blowoff top that might last 2 hours. 

Vacation starts technically on Thursday

Consider, HBB loves to force big move on 3 days weekends, can people off guard, make them panic Monday morning.

HBB in classic form

Interesting to see USD jumping up, also S&P jumping up/tape banging around.

Hussman

Hussman is one of those smart guys who has been wrong for a long time, at least in terms of being risk adverse in "the greatest bull in history".

He has this to say about right now:

It is now urgent for investors to recognize that the set of economic evidence we observe reflects a unique signature of recessions comprising deterioration in financial and economic measures that is always and only observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions

Read up on Hussman Here

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/index.html

Retrace to the H&S neckline around 1250

Not too much to say, busy on some projects, even investigating real estate.  

Although RE hasn't quite got down to the point where every disrespects it at barbeques, which should happen before the real bottom.  Still a hard asset is likely to do better than a fiat currency.

My posts will be pretty light.    Ad revenues haven't even been high enough to pay for a Stockcharts membership, and that ain't saying much.   That said, I have not been in tune with the market lately, so it is time to step away from the keyboard. 

BPT giving away tools and Wave 5 AWOL

Breakpoint Trades somehow keep getting better, I am migrating towards Tradestation, away from Thinkorswim, setting stops is essential, but setting too tight of stops is the best way to lose money consistently.  

BPT gave away some code for setting stops.   Good stuff.  $40 per month for incredible value.    Sign up using link on the left of my blog.    They are kind of leaning to the long indices position now, just FYI.  

And further down, if you look at SPX, it looks like maybe SPX is missing a wave 5.    Well, I noticed something similar on copper.    Wave 5 just "went away".

Euro Discussion

 Skeptic84

You haven't thought through the euro's demise if you think the weaker member states leaving is bearish euro/usd. The euro is effectively a weighted average of the member states real fx weights. Greece should be maybe 0.4usd while Germany is maybe 2.0 usd, etc etc. If you remove the lower value countries from the euro, it will appreciate, not depreciate against the usd!
Counter-intuitive I know, but the fact is that the weaker member states leaving the euro effectively makes the euro the Deutschmark, which is worth more usd.
You will incur heavy losses betting against the euro. It can and will appreciate against the usd as weaker member states leave.

 steveo say

So what happens to the "excess euros" that get abandoned by these weaker states, they also rocket up in value?

I think your basic premise the Euro is a weighted average of some phantom equivalent FX value is just wrong.    There isn't any phantom equivalent currency.   From a mathematical point of view I see the beauty of that as a simple equation, but I see no reason to think that it is true.

Euro Short based on a nice trendline

Took this Euro short. Weirdest Sunday open, the Euro opened almost exactly where it closed on Friday. Never seen that before, almost always some type of gap. It is exactly at a nifty trendline, check the chart, esp, the lower chart closely.

In a way I am playing "all the same bet", in my prior posts, I have detailed
Gold Short,
as well as US indices
"Channel of Doom from 2003 now currently fully in play", and
"Egg of Doom".

Please scroll down for those.  And below is the NYSI Summation index, indicating a long equities, possibly, but crossover has not happened, it can flounder around on the bottom for quite some time.

As a minor Slice of Life I notice that as a small business, we continue to get lots of marketing calls, at least 10 per week for people marketing, well, marketing itself. People selling sales. And they are getting more aggressive, more smooth, more relaxed, more apathetic. A combination of all of those things. People are really getting beat up on the financial and business front, and it is showing.

Then there are another 10 emails I get each week, they are from girls in China named "Jenny" or "Cherry" selling some Chinese products. Funny that all the girls in China are name Jenny or Cherry, LOL.

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