Euro Discussion

 Skeptic84

You haven't thought through the euro's demise if you think the weaker member states leaving is bearish euro/usd. The euro is effectively a weighted average of the member states real fx weights. Greece should be maybe 0.4usd while Germany is maybe 2.0 usd, etc etc. If you remove the lower value countries from the euro, it will appreciate, not depreciate against the usd!
Counter-intuitive I know, but the fact is that the weaker member states leaving the euro effectively makes the euro the Deutschmark, which is worth more usd.
You will incur heavy losses betting against the euro. It can and will appreciate against the usd as weaker member states leave.

 steveo say

So what happens to the "excess euros" that get abandoned by these weaker states, they also rocket up in value?

I think your basic premise the Euro is a weighted average of some phantom equivalent FX value is just wrong.    There isn't any phantom equivalent currency.   From a mathematical point of view I see the beauty of that as a simple equation, but I see no reason to think that it is true.