Friday, October 12, 2012

Flat into Weekend

Closed out XXIA long for small profits, it remained strong while market dropped steady.

Extreme RSI 2 on SPX saying to go long, however, my other stuff says quite a bit of risk remains to the downside.    

Cable, with a three drive Egg pop is ready to head down, again.   We mentioned this trade over a week ago and it did play out.

Now its at a 50% retrace

Almost pulled the trigger on buying silver and gold long, but could easily see a 10% drop to flush out the new bulls.   Spank them hard before the upchannel continues.   Market loves doing that.

:Junk" Silver at low premiums

A lesser known fact is that from 1965 to 1970, half dollar coins were minted in 40% silver.

For all fractional coins after 1873 until 1965, they are based on .7234 ounces to the dollar. (the dollar coin remained unchanged, and thus fell from circulation)

Thus they contain:

Half-Dollar ≈ .3617
Quarter-Dollar ≈ .1808
Dime ≈ .07234

From 1942-1945 Silver "nickels" were minted at 35% thus ≈ .0563
From 1965-1970 Half-Dollars were reduced to 40% thus ≈ .1479
From 1971-1977 Dollars were minted at 40% thus ≈ .3162
*Two 40% halves do not = one 40% dollar.
*Each of the 40% coins and the 35% nickels do not compare to any other coinage standard, including each other.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Living Will Form

I hope that I don't have to use this, but just in case . . .


I, ____________, being of sound mind and body, do not wish to be kept alive indefinitely by artificial means. Under no circumstances should my fate be put in the hands of partisan politicians who couldn't pass ninth-grade biology if their lives depended on it, or
lawyers/doctors/hospitals interested in simply running up the bills.

If after a reasonable amount of time passes, and I fail to ask for: (Check appropriate items): a Bloody Mary______, a beer ______, a Gin and Tonic _______, a Glass
of Chardonnay ______, a Steak ______, the TV remote control ______, a bowl of ice cream ______, the sports page______,Sex______, or Chocolate_______, it should be presumed that I won't ever get any better. 

When such a determination is reached, I hereby instruct my appointed person and attending physicians to pull the plug, reel in the tubes, and call it a day. At this point, it is time to call the New Orleans Jazz Funeral Band to come and do their thing at my funeral, and ask all of my friends to raise their glasses to toast the good times we have had or should've had.


Amendment #1:
Should I become incapacitated as described above, DO NOT PULL THE PLUG until

after I have voted against Barack Obama by absentee ballot in the November 2012 election.

Amendment #2:
If the plug has been pulled in violation of #1 above, transport my body to Chicago so that I can still vote against Barack Obama.



Tuesday, October 9, 2012

German Shepherd win by Nobel Prize Winner Yamanaka

My wife's blog friend has a German Shepherd dog who couldn't walk anymore.

She took the dog to Kyoto University Vet.

They happened to be doing research on regenerative nerve treatment, and that is what the Shepherd needed.    They tried experimental treatment, now the dog is able to go camping and swimming. 

How cool is that?   The Professor who came up with the treatment?    The same guy who just won the Noble prize,Yamanaka-san.

Below is the Japanese blog, its a Google translation which is very poor, but you can get the idea.
This Bernoulli channel line is a 5 year line, we have been Dancing with Bernoulli (see the yellow highlighted box) for a month now. The thinner upchannel has been working for over 2 months now. And the peach colored thin line I call the Bernoulli 4343, which is 4/3 to the 4/3rds power, is the "Catch line" since the 4343 often cathces the overthrow of the B133 line which is the goldenrod color line. We could easily drop to the long term B25, or B50 (the thick blue line) the B50 is the mid channel line, those would be 1700 or 1625 type of pricing. I would be buying moderate at 1700 and heavy at 1625. NZD/JPY, Cable, and ES all point to lower prices ahead, and gold should follow barring a religious / oil based war which is possible (15%) 

Gold Futures Net Short Commercials

Commercials are always "net short" gold.    They have the product, they want to hedge the downside to lock in a more steady profit.  That is what corporations like...steady profits, rather than big wins and big losses, so they pay for this "profit insurance", i.e. a hedge.

But lately they have gone REALLY net short.   And they are usually right, when gold is "overbought" whatever that means, by whatever measuring stick you are using.

This chart is from Breakpoint Trades...sign up on right for monthly or 6 month membership, it is well worth it.   Those guy work really hard, labeling charts and even creating new mechanical trading systems and the like, and always coming up with trade ideas on individual stocks so you don't have to go head to head against the HAL 20000 computers on the main racetrack.  

Monday, October 8, 2012

Flag Patterns

Flag Patterns can take a while to play out, weeks even, on a daily chart.

But I have noticed, that rarely, very rarely does a flag move strongly the "wrong way".

I do often see a "blow off move", i.e. a quick spike to wipe out some stops and prevent some people who have been playing the flag, to get wiped out, right before the real move occurs.

But overall, flags tend to play out the way they should.

There are two types of additional flags that I have coined names for, that being the high flying flag, and the low flying flag.  

I coined these names because I keep seeing these patterns and results, and hadn't see the pattern in a book.    Another top pattern recognition fool by the name of PRS independently labelled this pattern as a "double helix".    I never understood his pick of that name, but we agreed on the shape and the results of the pattern.

The high flying flag is just exuberant, not even pausing to form a reticent flag.

The low flying flag just can't even form a higher low, it just keeps sinking.

We’ve been bled, please stop the Fed

Written by Cometo, June 2009


We’ve been bled, please stop the Fed

 We the people, as firm believers in the foundations that our great nation was based on are calling for real change, change to ensure future generations the opportunities we have had including real property rights and respect for contract law.

We need to ensure that pursuit of happiness remains an endeavor will that continue to provide our fellow and future peoples the willingness and desire to risk capital in the never ending quest for a better life. We owe this to the future; it is being stolen from all of us.

The Fed and it banking brothers and enablers in Congress have by design been institutions that have robbed wealth from ordinary citizens for the better part of the last century. It is as if through their monetary policies they are saying “It is not your money to keep, it never was, it never will be, it is actually our money, and how dare you think you can hold on to it”. Inflation by design steals from responsible savers and in practice forces our money into the hands of the “money changers” who mismanage it largely in their own interests. It is disgusting that this contrived inflation essentially forces an older generation out of their “owned” homes because of never ending tax increases via monetary policy. There are no property rights if one cannot ultimately keep what you “own”.

That these partners in crime, The Fed, The Treasury, banker/brokers pals, and even worse, the kept men of women of the Congress and Senate have worked in concert to transfer huge sums of our money to settle CDS claims at 100 percent value to preferred partners while also restraining secured debt holders from the same is a dangerous sign. This is a violation of both basic property rights and contract law.

These are the rock solid principles that Western civilizations are founded upon. It isn’t a small rock in a delicate pile they are toying around with. They risk undoing centuries of progress and advancement for all of us. It is not too late, we still have wealth left to rebuild with, to re-invest with, and to set the stage for the next big advances for all of mankind.

Please urge your elected tele-tubbies in Washington to reduce the powers and influence of the Fed, saving those rights for the States and individuals as defined in the Constitution of the United States. No where in this gift from our founding fathers are powers granted to a central bank to control, regulate, and mismanage our money and wealth creation opportunities. Nor does this document enshrine either of our current political parties. Let’s remind the kept men and women in Washington DC of this simple and self evident truth as well.

It is time for change, we the People deserve and demand it. We need to restrain and rework the institutions that have failed us so miserably, not grant them extensive new powers over our ability to effectively and fairly deploy our capital as we see fit. If each of us pressures our elected tele-tubbies forcefully and repeatedly we can help promote peaceful and beneficial change for generations to come. It is a time for change, let’s get on with it.

Gold and Silver Charts of Clarity

These charts of gold and silver bring the greatest clarity that I have seen.

(Like this stuff, sign up as a follower, which is free.   We won't spam you or sell your info, we are not Evil like da Goog)

We are at resistance, but also clearly working now in the up channel, and this is a long term up channel.

Classically, I have always held that one should expect resistance or suppoort to hold until proven otherwise.

HOWEVER, after a number of tests of a channel line, the energy is building.    So a move up could be an explosive move up, leaving the nay-sayers in the dust, waiting for a pullback.

Think 5 years from now, or 10.    Will you really care whether you bought gold at 1775 or 1600?

What if gold drops to 1600 this week?   Would you sell physical?   Or be scared that it will drop more?

Remember the 100 point gold drop early in the year of 2012?    All accomplished in like 3 minutes.     My take at the time was that  was done to convince Joe Public that gold is a risky asset, besides the profits "they" got from running all those stops.   Expect something like this again.

I will be taking a bet on the upward breakout with GC futures, and saving real money to buy a dip/shakeout.    Shakeout that lasts a week seems to be enough to get 70% of the traders to "change opinion" from bullish to bearish.

If you get a chance, check the Einstein Online, 80,000 documents were scanned and available to you for free.   Think what he did without even a calculator, much less a computer.   Sheesh they didnt even have a copy machine back in the day.

Funny, most people come to this site directly, or from a link on another blog or news site.   But of those who stumble upon this site on a web search, the most popular is "meh girl", you know the t-shirt advertising girl, LOL!