Friday, October 16, 2009

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

All is one all markets UP!

Well this differs from my current theory that every market sector and asset class will find it's own top , one by one, as this bull market rally of a bear market finds it's top.

Today saw almost everything under the sun going up way higher, even though the USD was down a minor 0.46%.  Check it out...amazing.  

I think I will buy some Dec calls to help tank the market, or maybe sell some Nov puts, and buy June puts.

And below--a 79.9% interest rate, wow!

Unemployment, where is it really, real data from real Gov Website

Keep in mind, the "real" data is not going to be better than this.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

High Quality Bonds Versus The Dow Jones.

A current line of thinking is....if the dollar becomes worthless, everyone knows that the stock market goes up as the dollar goes down.  Therefore, if you "buy" real assets (a company) by investing in stocks, you are protected from hyperinflation.  Yeah, a blip on the computer screen (your ticker price) is not "wealth", it is not even a paper asset come to think of it.

The good part of this type of thinking is:  Boy I hope this world never changes, because now that I can see through the balderdash, I can make money.

The sad part of this is: Boy, the world has learned absolutely nothing.  This "rally" has taught the sheeples that the cure for easy money and excessive risk taking, is, well....more fuel on the fire, more cheap money and continued high risk investments and that promote share holder value.  Ouch.


IYR can it lead the market?

IYR will be a sector with much pain for many years.  It is a slow and illiquid market by itself, Real Estate.

Can it lead the market?

And IWM Perspective

CIT CEO resigning at the "PEEK" and BKX Charts

This just in, and too precious to ignore.  The chief at CITI is named "Peek", and he thinks this is a good time to get out.   I wonder where his stock options will be priced.  I bet he exercises them all immediately.
I don't have experience of "hundreds or thousands" of Fib Fan charts, but I like the idea, since combining price and time seems important.  Look at XLF.

This rally must be near the end, since I had the honest realization that perhaps this tanker (economy) had been turned around and that way more upside is possible. 

And just in case you hadn't noticed....America's government has been taken over by Bankers.  This is not a good thing.

And finally, the Irony of it all....Banksta's conspire to steal tens of TRILLIONS from the past genration, the current generation, and even from a generation not yet born, and they walk free, however we got to make share the "Just Say No to Ice" crowd is given their just desserts.

Best Indicator may become mute

Anyone who follows our thinking knows that Business Week (A McGraw Hill Co.) is one of the best indicators out there--as a contra-indicator.

They always seems to catch the top of a trend.

Now, if Bloomberg buys them, will it bring Business Week up to Bloomberg status?  Or is it a sign that one of the great financial information providers (Bloomberg) will become degraded?

GOOG is basically an advertiser, just like most publications....their topic is a way to attract subscribers which attract advertisers.   But this article about Business Week brings up an important point.   Businesses are advertising less.  This is not a "successful growth" strategy, it is a survival retrenchment strategy.   The article says that BW is retaining subscriber's but has lost 37% of advertising dollars in just one year.
During the Mania, people didn't care about spending money, advertising became expensive and with it, advertisers became fat and got a feeling of entitlement.  Not a good scenario for a correction of the biggest Mania of the last several hundred years. 

Case in point.   One of my business advertising methods was able to be negotiated 20% down this year.  And they still have less advertisers.  They retained their "entitlement" attitude until I said bye-bye for three months, and then their attitude changed.

Short advertisers.

Boatload O' Charts 101309

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Indicators and GET OUT THE VOTE

The NYSE Summation index has broken its uptrend line, and its 21 day MA uptrend line.

All these indices are a permanent part of the resources available on the blog, so please visit and click through these links for a look at the guts of the market (internals).

The TED Spread looks like it put in a double bottom in September.  God do I hate these Bloomberg charts -- it is almost insulting on how they present data.  However, if you have a spare $40,000 per year or whatever it is, you can get the real Bloomberg, which is basically unmatched in all the financial industries.  I used to have access to it.

The S&P Bullish Percent Index is heading upward again, bouncing off the 2007 highest level achieved.  One could Place a rising wedge pattern on this.

The McClellan NYSE  had a small 4% change on Friday.   This portends a large move, in the next day or two or maybe three, however, the direction of the move is not known from this indicator.

If futures open down, I will sell on weakness, Sunday afternoon.

You may have noticed on my Chart of Charts that there is a huge amount of stocks that are forming patterns that could break out.  This adds to the liklihood of a big move as predicted by the McClellans small move Friday.

3 Banks Blew up and were taken over by FDIC on Friday.   Pretty consistent, 3 or 4 banks blow up every Friday. 

I ran across this other blog that just had an amazing assortment of links to various economic data

Check it out

Econoday posts that Consumer credit is contracting at a continuing steep pace, while the consumer debt to income ratio has gone from a steady 23.5 to around 22.5.   So even though incomes are going down, consumers are paying down their debt even faster.  Remember the consumer is 70% of the economy, and financial gimmickry is 29% of economy, leaving the remaining 1% to the few people in this country who actually produce a product!  hehe, OK thats an exxageration.

Per Investors Intelligence, percent bears has actually been going up of late.   Hmmm....