Saturday, July 2, 2011

Happy 4th!

All below are Word Docs, they are easy to find on the net, if you don't have Word.

You can read all the docs below in less than 1 hour.   Misinformation is rampant concerning these basic laws of the US.   Read them, you will be really glad you did.

Presented below are text versions from the Articles of Confederation 1777
This is like the "Original Constitution"

Articles of Confederation


Constitution of the United States

Amendements to the Constitution, NOTE that the first 10 are collectively referred to as the "Bill of Rights",  The BOR was ratified on December 15, 1791

Amendments 1 to 27 First 10 are Bill of Rights

Print them, go get a sun tan and read them.   They really aren't that complicated.  Really, a 7th grader could understand them.

HEY and just in case you got that "all men are created equal" thing stuck in your was here, in the Declaration of Indpendence.   Just keep in mind, this was just a declaration, it is not part of the rules by which we are supposed to live.

Japan Nuclear Admissions of Fraud and just how bad it is and will be

Independence Day Quiz

OK, no trading blog post, here goes a Quiz on the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America.

Take the Quiz Here, can you get 20 for 20?

Below one is interesting. Lobbying, and "capture" of the Government, at many levels, is perhaps the biggest problem facing America, in addition to "installation" of ex-industry execs into Government, and awarding of cushy high paying job to ex Gov officials in industry. The conflict of interest is obvious. Give it the 7th grader test. In 5 minutes could you explain the facts to a 7th grader, and what conclusion would they draw...for sure, obvious conflict of interest.

So how do we eliminate/regulate lobbying and gifts, while not gutting this portion of the Amended Constitution? Think and rant on these things weedhopper.

And here is a later comer....a Constitution quiz

Friday, July 1, 2011

New Moon

I am signing off at least for the weekend, maybe more. Have been getting less and less comments, less and less ad revenue. Thanks for all those who stopped in and participated, even those who just came and lurked. Smile, it increases your face value.

At least I got freakin ice!


Brinkley [Moderator] 5 hours ago in reply to.....
Dear [fill in blank] --in terms of trading potential and results, it's easy to over-think and over-analyze this stuff, you know. You're never going to see it all or understand it all, and therein lies the very nature of the beast. It is what it is, and we either learn to accept, trade,and profit from what we do have ready access to, or we spend our market time in a never-ending state of conflict. To trade well, in my experience, it is of paramount importance to learn to detach emotionally from whatever is taking place on the screen in front of you and work with it. If, on the other hand, your relationship with the market is antagonistic, the market will win. In other words, one has to strive to make the market a partner, not an opponent.

Brinkley moderates at Blue Chip Bulldog, a great site, although participation has gone down alot.

Coined the term Fedster.

Bankers hand bankers more of your money, market surges, and Bloomberg report how this will reduce fees for consumers

Still a bit in shock, saw the first of this story, and was surprised that a regulator would increase fees on consumers using debit cards (i.e. backed by real money in an account).

Visa and Mastercard skyrocketed.

Then further shocked today when I read another story on the same matter by Bloomberg, explaining that consumers would benefit, and Visa and Mastercard skyrocketed.   Those two things are so obviously opposite each other.   Bloomberg also goes on to mislead, blaming the rate on being mandated by Dodd-Frank.    Obvious and blatant attempt at deception.   Bloomberg must now be thrown into the category of cannot be trusted at all.

Article here, really check it out.

Further shock from  reading the was the Federal Reserve would was the "regulator" of debit card fees.   Really?   The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the US government.   They are the banking cartel, they can do enough damage just by fractional banking.   They have been operating further outside the law lately, read some smart guys like Hussman, who really understand.

Here is same story from Financial Times (UK)--you are more likely to get real news from outside the US, UK is often more honest.   They note the 21cent fee per swipe is great higher than the .12cent fee originally suggested by the Fed in December.   Even at 12cents, this monopoly setup would be banking huge coin for little effort, a true mis-allocation of resources.   At 21cents, it is a steal.

This is link the Hussman's basic site, in a number of his weekly letter he gets more and more outspoken about the financial laws being broken in the US.   He runs billions of dollars, so even though "mainstream" he has lost his cool. 
Not the entire government has been "captured" there are some senators fighting for the citizens, here is one from Illinois, a scathing letter RE Visa and Mastecard monopolistic control and insanely high fee for computer automated transactions, trying to get higher fees (PS they did, THEY won, we lost)

Beware the military industrial complex (steveo 2011), stolen from many dead wise mentors.

Week Wrap

Vix is near historic lows.

My indicator, VOS, is at line in sand lows

These both mean more volatility in the future, lower equities prices.

Fear Factor with a predicted "stick save", meaning predicted increases in prices.

Fibonacci time spans on the FF imply a spike in fear on July 5th

Put call ratio quite low, it was way high before this last bear spanking rally.

People trying to attribute today's action to Mutual fund money.   No way, that is poor causative thinking in light of all the other issues going on, and the recent 5 white soldier candles.

Bears have become bulls

Black Swans getting so numerous that air traffic control is needed.   Think 1999

Enough said?

2 Themes, Long because Armageddon scenario is a no win,

Repeated theme I am having from many levels:

Why not be long?  Afterall, if the Black Swan Squared Scenario plays out, that is a lose/lose for everyone.

I.e. if annuities default, everything will be so jacked up anyway...who might as well die (if annuities default).

Repeated themes are often false themes.

Everyone is on the "Greek Bailout" bus.   Personally, I think alot of these shenanigans are directly related that now the financial plunderer's (please don't call them elites) now want to take over all assets, both public and private.   They will get ownership of all government assets, land, infrastrcutre.   Then if you want some, you can rent it from the ability to use a road to go to work at your part time walmart job (do they have Walmart in Greece).

Got it?   They want all the assets.  The so called "privatization" of government infrastructure is really just a sham for transference of wealth and control.

Where is the rage?  Subdued by Government entitlement handouts to keep people at subsidence but not revolting levels.

Volatility on Steroids, meeting the line in the sand

So far VOS has never failed, it is at the line in the sand.

This would be a turn here, increase in various volatilities, decrease in equities

I am going to grab a Kona coffee, brewed just now from beans, and then find some puts to buy.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

The Bernoulli Channels and Four Laws

Basic theory.  

Bernoulli was a famous mathematician who used mathematics to describe natural processes that were important to how things really worked.  

I have surmised that most things have natural recurring patterns.   These things, let's call them "systems"  have certain energy levels and ways of moving that restrict their degree of movement, although these restrictions are often enacted as a viscous zone (not usually a solid boundary), and sometimes as a slowing similar to a boundary layer effect.    At some point the outer boundary may see an increase of pressure that results in slow or no movement, as in a velocity that is restricted becomes a pressure or even heat, sometimes this is seen a bouncing of energy against a barrier.   If the final barrier is breached, one may see a large movement of the system as in a pipe getting more pressurized until it finalizes ejects the fluid. 

These processes summarize the motion of markets to a large degree, although the pipe and water example analogy only goes so far, since in the Market, the water can also jump back into the pipe, and of particular importance to the technical study of markets, to return to bounce off the pipe and then continue away with increased energy.

Bernoulli Channels describe the various boundaries in mathematical relation to the "Interior Channel", the selection of the Interior Channel is an visual pattern recognition skill, and is crucial to the success

These Channel extensions are shown to exist in the nature of markets as simple fractions:

(4/3) to the Power of (4/3)
(4/3) times (4/3)

Similar to the laws of thermodynamics I have postulated 4 laws of the Great Ponzi. 

Law 1: Motion of the Ponzi may continue to irrational levels, even to the point that it appears to be perpetual, by cannot and will not continue forever.

Law 2: Ponzi Entropy--eventually the ponzi will lose, hands down, shenanighans can make a non-isolated system appear to increase in value, But never shall the isolated Ponzi increase in true value, not for a moment, don't even try.

Law 3:  No matter how much "News" that the system operators extract from the system, you can never stop the Decay of the Ponzi

Law ZERO: Sum value of currencies relative to each other are forever in equilibrium, it is a net zero sum game.   However the value of currencies in relation  to things that really matter can be shown, to over-time converge on a value of ZERO, as they have with 100% consistency throughout history.

Euro breaking down, see prior posts for the setup in "post real time"

Euro Broke Back about to get hosed

The Bernoulli Channels are the best stuff.   And the Euro finally broke convincingly.

Put are very inexpensive, today at least

The put/call is low, bears are trying to rationlize the bull case, and a new moon.   Also a 3 days weekend, and multiple instances of currency manipulation are obvious.

I have been 'bullish" in theory since Monday.   That is over.

From last night blogger was down. buying puts today and tomorrow

Wednesday, June 29, 2011


The McClennan is strongest in predicting a big move (unknown direction), and a small change in the index.

The Nasdaq did have a small change, the New York had a medium small change.

Expect some Fireworks!  

ES Bernoulli Swatdown

Betcha JoeSixPack wants to get into some longs to talk about at Independence Day Barbeque!

From poster at TTW

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Rally into the July 1 weekend, end poorly on July 5th Tuesday

Expect rally after Greek Save, then big increase in Fear Factor, July 4th.

Serious games going on, Euro Cable, USD

S&P 500 futures is hitting serious multiple resistance, should turn down

But I have incredible faith is these so-called free market to run up to far irrational levels.   They do this often.   Faith in irrationality, no one knows what happens next.

Now we are all day traders and currency traders, fundamental may take years to play out.

Lots of charts, the Cable was pounded, whilst Euro did a moon shot.  It looks like the USD  could take another slapping and bounce off its former downtrend Bernoulli Channel extention, which should now be support (resistance turns into support), this would play nicely into the July 4th holiday to float this pig upward until the long weekend "wake up call" we predicted a week or two back based on the VOS indicator---search for it

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Definition of sucess

Market Sniper often comments at Slope of Hope, he has trading strategies that can literally make you a million dollars.   He gives this away for free.  

In this high risk environment, he only day trades.   I do some position trades. 

I think I have reached a new plateau.    Trading what you see, in front of you.  Do not try to "enforce" your view of what should be on the markets.    Long or short, whatever.   News?   Give me a break, if you want to waste time on news, at least view it as a contra-indicator.

I jacked up my trading account 41% in 2 weeks.   Playing long and short, /ES and Euro and some position trades mostly based on Breakpoint Trades advice.  No joke, this is serious stuff.