Friday, February 11, 2011

Friday night charts

I have been hearing that Disqgust (the comment system) has been locked up for many people.   I have noticed this too. 

We had like 300 people stop by today, and 3 comments.   Leave a quick comment if you can just so I know things are working.   Spent lots of time putting charts together, be nice if I knew anyone was getting any value from them.   And......


To the charts!

I guess to me most of these are self explanatory, but drop a comment and I will definitely elaborate!


 This was yesterday







Thursday, February 10, 2011

Lessons in Gartley

From a chat room, training in patterns.   Some of the patterns that are not obvious in geometry are reported to work well.   I think they will also be harder for the HAL 20000 to calculate and game, therefore more valuable to know.

bloodwine: this is a proper gartley --- 

http://screencast.com/t/Qj8uU2y9

bloodwine: the problem with a gartley or butterfly is there is not target
bloodwine: it's a trend reversal pattern... and i've had good luck with them
bloodwine: but there's no way to predict how far the new trend goes
bloodwine: my experience is (if they work) it's a strong move that can be closed on the second opposing candle
bloodwine: I.E. -- if you're short... close if you get 2 green candles


I pretty much drop Fibonacci onto every chart, can't do any harm can do alot of good 


COMMENTS?!?!?!? 
Is there anyone out there!!!!!

Forex, AUD short and Eur tanking midday, big action

Called the short awhile back, did more than call it, took it.   Also took Eur/USD short this afternoon.




The chart below shows just how messy this Euro battle is going to be....uh, yes, this is actually my wide view of the battle.

Charts for Wednesday

Its and interesting time.   It sure "feels" like a big drop is coming, and for me those are the worst times to place large bets.    At least the last few years...everytime it looked perfect....the market took off upward with a vengeance.   

I put alot of that on the "Numerati", keep in mind after someone copied Goldmans trading software they bellyached that some could do big damage to markets with that software...yeah right and with $4T of client money to push around to manipulate things, I am sure that can be done.   It is really obvious when you look at those simple facts.  

To the charts.   Please look at them, they tell a story.  
The Euro chart is screaming SHORT!

I looked at maybe 80 charts, these are the best.










TOS Tech support

I am getting more disgruntled with TOS as time goes on.

Main point of the copy over is
1) give you the techsupport@thinkorswim.com email
2) Complain/bellyache
3) Indicate the growing disdain they have for their customers, like dissin me for not promptly installing every microcrash (i mean micrsoft update) that comes out.



10:54 chad: hello
10:54 chad: how can i help you?
11:09 solsen77: having trouble with new version of TOS
11:12 chad: how so?
11:13 solsen77: screens not showing up at all no charts sometimes
11:13 solsen77: slow performance
11:13 solsen77: buy trades not emailed to me, waas told its a known problem
11:14 chad: email alerts is a known issue
11:14 chad: everything else is local to you.
11:14 chad: In order to diagnose the problem, please send the following to
techsupport@thinkorswim.com with a brief description of the problem...
  DX Diag file

Click on START button and click RUN. Type in "DXDIAG" and click OK. Check through the tabs and perform ALL tests.
Click "Save all Information..." and save the text file to a location of your choice.

  Error Report

Right click on the SETUP button in the upper right hand of the platform.
Click SEND REPORT and then OK.
Exit the software.
Right click on the thinkorswim icon.
Left click on PROPERTIES.
Left click on FIND TARGET (OPEN FILE LOCATION for Vista or 7).
In this folder you will see a file titled, "Error Report". Please also attach this file in your reply.

11:15 solsen77: OK I will try this later
11:17 solsen77: But would be nice if upgrade were not mandataory, like we could choose to install them on the weekend and benchtest, I don't have time and money on the line during the week...I dont even install microsoft , esp microsft updates until i have no critical need for computer which is rare, comprende?
11:18 chad: that actually is a terrible idea
11:18 chad: updates are put out to fix serious security problems by microsoft
11:18 chad: not updating leaves huge holes open in the security of your system
11:18 chad: which could lead to other problems
11:19 chad: potentially the ones you are experiencing with tos
11:19 chad: our update this past weekend should not have any performance problems as it was just adjust some charting features
11:19 chad: if you have problems since then and are not using the new features, i suspect that you had a problem before hand
11:21 solsen77: no just showed up. 
11:22 solsen77: microsoft is better than before, but their updates used to crash or dysfunction my mchaines often, not as bad now but super cautious
11:23 solsen77: Other odd thing...the "synchronize drawings" feature which I aways have on was somehow turned off during that update, took me a while to find how to turn it back on.
11:23 solsen77: A printable manual for TOS would be awesome as a quick reference, although you support folks do pretty good, but usually I need support after your normal horus as i am in Hawaii.

Inverted cup and handle, middlin performance, and 5 up is still up

There was a little dip yesterday, and a big dip overnight futures. 
Tuesday we posted this inverted cup and handle (and a top call)
However, given that IC&H Inverted Cup and Handle performs just so so in a bull market, and the move itself it not usually so large, I am a bit less excited about this Bear Treat.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Gi-9fDeQJwo/TVLTg__pFJI/AAAAAAAAEIY/Pgkw3MhDxIs/s1600/nq+short.png

Also, we have been going up in 5's and correcting in 3's that hasn't changed, so their is strong Elliot theory that says there is more upside left.


So time will tell.


Here is the overnight results on the futures.




Drop a comment--comment count has dropped way off (another sign of a top)

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

AUD Short, and PRS training

See Notes on recognizing a blatant stop sweep, and jumping in, not running scared.

An HBB stop sweep is like a mortar going off.    Except you have to resist the fear of running away, as soon as the shrapnel has fallen, dive in to the smoke and set your position.

And right below, a long awaited graphic description of the PRS Channels (originally developed by a blogger code name PRS guitars)

AUD Short.   Look at that stop sweep.   This is simple folks...when you see a stop sweep like that, a near vertical line, they mean business....they are using big money to ramp and sweep, then they are shorting from the toppish area, and then not entering more bids...but letting the market tank....

However before I make a Gonzo Bet, I would want to confirm that is not just a data error, so I look at TOS and sure enough, same stop sweep, so it probably really happened.    Time to drill down and then jump into the smoke.





AUD short, Breakpoint Trades full newsletter

First, I have another full-on version Market Analysis report with audio, and watchlist trade ideas.    The real deal for you, for free.   Linked here with permission of Breakpoint Trades.  Check it out.

Is this the turning of the tides?   Time to join up and for $2 a day, be able to obtain hours worth of analysis that can be quickly digested.   Consider it, really.  Use the link on left side when you are ready to join up.   Simply put, this is the best analysis (yes even better than mine, although I do different stuff) from two hard working guys that know tech, Elliot, Fibo, patterns, candles, indicators and divergences, as well as coming up with their own backtested mechanical system, and real time trade alerts, and an active (protected) blog, that's tolerate no spam/no trolls.   $40 per month.   

One decent trade idea can easily pay for the whole membership fee.

What can I say?  

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Second -- I haven't been posting and when I don't see much in terms of good patterns, PRS channels, Fear Factor, or ACT (Asset Class Totals) --- well then I might just post up a funny video ror something.

____________________________________________________________________________

AUD Short.   Look at that stop sweep.   This is simple folks...when you see a stop sweep like that, a near vertical line, they mean business....they are using big money to ramp and sweep, then they are shorting from the toppish area, and then not entering more bids...but letting the market tank....

However before I make a Gonzo Bet, I would want to confirm that is not just a data error, so I look at TOS and sure enough, same stop sweep, so it probably really happened.    Time to drill down.  

I'll do a short lesson in PRS in the near future.  It is really simple, but you need to train your eye to see patterns that are buried in between the outliers on the high and low side.

OK, simple enough, but we haven't established a declining channel on the AUD/USD nor even broken the PRS 133, we are at PRS 50 actually.    So expect shenanigans, but keep on eye on this one, set some alerts even, maybe 2 alerts each side up and down.   

I did just draw in a mini-down channel on the last chart at bottom, seems to work well. 




Buy the Dip?




Gold Gerb on Whitney
http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2011/02/con-gress.html


And here is a piece on over regulation, please watch it all the way to the surprise ending.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Calling a Top

OK I have seen enough, too more confidence, too many longs being held hell or highwater (both are coming )

Copper heavily gamed, price way up, inventories way up.

Yen, heavily gamed on a thin tail spike down, that means USD goes up.


Not shorting yet, set to short on weakness, orders placed.

steveo out

CEO of TS Ameritrade stating how they have assets of 400B compared to 210B in 2009, therefore showing that people, esp retail is undoubtedly bringing money in.... hmmmm, and he says they new money is especially going into financials.  

HMMMMMM....does this sound like the good start of "a"nother rally?

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/managingandleadership-19142760/td-ameritrade-ceo-on-signs-of-a-major-market-comeback-24125813

Monday, February 7, 2011

CHARTS, back to basics

GBP / JPY has been very obedient to the PRS 177 channel lines, and Fib lines.   I true Dr. J fashion I want to see if the second charts gets you to pay more attention to the PRS channels.







Silver (retail gold)

Global Finance, and recap of gold support from jan 24

This is a good periodical.   Kind of the inside track to what Global Finance people are thinking or at least, reading.  

You can get this for free, and you should.   Look it up yourself or write me and I will try to help out.


Recent Pretcher Photo

Win the future!   Follow the leader!

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Breakpoint Trades - Full on "Pay For" newsletters, here 100% free today only

Don't miss out on this market analysis.

Breakpoint Trades is letting Hawaii Trading post the real product for free!

Enjoy -- if you like this stuff, please use the link on the left side bar to sign up to BPT, the 6 month membership is the best deal for sure. 

Using the BPT  Watchlist and Mechanical systems (like the swing trade on GDX Gold Miners Index) really help profitability.   Some of the watchlist is pretty thin liquidity, so you probably couldn't run say $500k of trading funds through those watchlist items without occasionally moving the market, but running $100k or $200k is well within reason.

Also what I have just found out it that by clicking on the "Live Chart" link on each page they present, now that I have Stockchart's membership, I can aggregate all the watchlist and indices of interest and they update in real time with notes and trendlines intact.   That is very cool.


BPT Foreign Market Newsletter

Gold is at an important juncture


A few weeks back we did DNN as a long uranium. Took quick profits. Now the guys at Breakpoint Trades have identified a bull flag on DNN. I will set alerts for a breakout.