Saturday, April 2, 2011

Japan Radiation

It is obvious to me that very few people wish to come to this site to see comments on Fukushima.

Whatever, I shall post as I see fit about it.   It is potentially one of the biggest things of these near term decades.   

High levels of radioactivity  are likely to continue to release for months, maybe years.   In Russia, they don't have little things to try to accommodate like worker safety.   It took six months to build a concrete structure to contain the main part of the radiation.   Now they think it is too weak and may have to do the former Russia, that is.

This is extremely serious.   There is radiation in the ocean, in the air, in the food, and 45 feet underground.   It is not being stopped.  They have failed and flailed from the beginning, in the midst of 2 other major catastrophes.

Repeat, IT IS NOT BEING STOPPED!   At this moment.    They do not have a concrete batching plant set up, I would have done so two weeks ago....

The cat is out of the bag...time to concrete.  However, in reality they need to stop the fission reactions which appear to keep going, otherwise the radiation would start subsiding.   It is not, the fission appears to keep going.   This is a multi-decade wipe out

Helpful Household Hint - Storing Water

One gallon per person per day, for minimum 3 days.    Keep in mind, very few municipal water departments have backup power sources for their pumps.    Store your water now while it is fresh and properly treated.   Don't wait for the start of an emergency.  

And consider your furry family members also!  
BLEACH is an amazing thing that we take for granted.    Stock up on Bleach too, it is an awesome sanitizer.
How should I treat the water for storage?
Be sure that the water you are treating is drinking-quality water to begin with. To treat water for storage, use liquid household chlorine bleach that contains 5.25 percent sodium hypochlorite. Do not use bleach with soaps or scents added. Add the bleach according to the table below, using a clean, uncontaminated medicine dropper.
4 drops bleach per quart or liter container of water
8 drops bleach per 2-quart, 2-liter, or ½ gallon container of water
16 drops bleach, or 1/4 teaspoon, per gallon or 4-liter container of water
When treating larger quantities of water, use the following table to convert drops to standard measuring units.
8 drops = 1/8 teaspoon
16 drops = 1/4 teaspoon
32 drops = ½ teaspoon
64 drops = 1 teaspoon
192 drops = 1 Tablespoon
384 drops = 1/8 cup which is equal to 2 Tablespoons
Stir the water and allow it to stand for 30 minutes. Chlorine should be detectable by odor after the 30 minute waiting period. If the water does not smell like chlorine at that point, repeat the dose and let it stand another 15 minutes. Place caps on containers and attach labels describing the contents and when each was prepared. Water stored in metal containers should not be treated, prior to storage, with chlorine since the chlorine compound is corrosive to most metals. Therefore, only very pure water should be stored in metal containers.

Real news on Japan is hard to find

Reuters has all but gone dark, they used to be the best source.   They said they would come back if thing took a significant turn for the worse, they did not come back.

I guess the powers that be realize that no matter what they says the net result will be about the same....why get the sheep panicked...they will probably be able to steal more civil rights when the sheep are truly frightened.   Expect another power grab at multiple degrees of trend.

This one is pretty good, bearish attitude.
Spent fuel rods at 4 times capacity, greed is putting us all at risk, risks the average person is told nothing about.

Quote of the Decade on Bubbles

I have moments of epiphany, too bad they aren't more often, LOL

Would the Dalai Lama approve of someone quoting themselves?   He sure writes enough books, isn't that like quoting yourself?   And if you are a "Da Lama", rhymes with DaBama, how can you retire, isn't that immoral or something?

Here is a quote from Steveo===

"It is hard to see a Bubble while you are riding it, you can't see it because your ego is equally inflated due to perception that 'I am a genius--I got the process nailed!' "

Friday, April 1, 2011

Ready to Quit?

Considering that 80% of America would be broke if they missed 1 month of paychecks, the "optimism" described below, is simply "optimism" and not based on reality.   Indeed I agree that this attitude is yet another costly outcome of not the (de)recession, but the index pumping and bankster bailouts that come at an unacceptable cost to society.

Glassdoor reports that 40 percent of those surveyed believe they could find a new job if necessary in the next six months which "matches their experience and pay". That's up from 35 percent from the quarter before, and it's the highest level of confidence in a year and a half.
"This optimism in the job market has grown among all age groups, most notably among younger workers 18-34," Glassdoor reports. Half of those in that youngest group think finding work would be no problem over the next six months, but even 29 percent of those over 55 agree.
"This report should put employers on alert as the economy improves and employees become less risk-averse to change," says Glassdoor's Rusty Rueff. "We're seeing early warning signs that employment churn will rise, which will be another disruptive and costly outcome of the recession for those who don't prepare."

Dogs and Rays and Dolphins Oh My!

Here is a feel good Friday night post.    Helicopter crews in Japan rescued a dog floating on a house after 3 weeks.   Apparently there are still lots of houses floating around, amazing. 

They had to make up the excuse that "there might be humans inside the house" in order to justify the rescue time and cost....the dog world thanks you for that.    You wouldn't leave your best friend to die if you could save him, after all.

Even cooler, the helicopter drop a rescuer to water level, but couldn't coax the dog out of the house.  The helo had to leave due to low fuel.  then they sent a boat to the Sargasso Orge flotilla of rubbish and houses to rescue the dog which succeeded!   yeah!
And, I have said a few the animals, when they start acting real sketchy, we are in for a socio-emotional event of Elliot proportions.

And another feel good story about saving a dolphin a mile from the coast in a rice field.

McC Thurs, Put/call, Moon, Jobs, Lions, and Tigers, and Burnt Bears oh my!

As mentioned before McC was nearly 0 on Thursday, that portends a big move.

Put call is quite high, that is usually not a good sign for bears.

New Moon (no moon) freaks people out, that is Sunday for the new Moon after the Equinox.

News of hiking interest rates by Fed can only be seen as "mis-direction"

Jobs report appeared good

100% cash, except for some long term positions in Gold miner juiors and Nat Gas (i.e. the worst performers of the last year).

Bond Price and "Yield" are mathematical, McC

I saw on another blog

Thought for the Day:

Nicely done methinks.   I was going to do the same, but had one epiphany for y'all

I have noticed in comments that some people don't understand the relationship between a bonds selling price and "yield".   I saw some comment like, just because bond prices go up doesn't mean that the interest rate couldn't go up too....

That is not true--Bond prices and their "yield" aka Interest Rate are the simplest inverse mathetatical realtionship.    It is not an item for discussion, arbitrage, none of that.

First the deception: They introduce this term called Yield --- really that is "interest rate", but by using another term, it takes understanding a level away from thing that humans commonly understand, which is interest.    It is a common tactic in all forms of business, however, it is especially well developed in the financial industry where they are trying to directly take your money.   People are "on guard" in those situations, so a more complex and sophisticated approach is needed.

Bonds are part of FIXED INCOME.    The amount you will be paid in a certain amount of time is say $115 in 3 years.   If you pay 100 now for that bond, you are roughly getting 5% annually (actually a wee bit less because of the compounding effect), but this is close enough to make the point.

Let's say you are scared out of equities.   You can lets your money sit in cash, or your advisor may advise to "lets keep that money working" lets buy some bonds and "stay invested".

So in panic times, lets say that same bond is selling for $112.    Equities look scary so you jump into the "safe bond".   What interest are you getting?   Well about 1%.    

What if you were a mutual fund or hedge fund forced to stay 95% invested?   And if you very concerned with would buy bonds, raising the price-- if enough people felt that way.  In fact, in the last few years there were times when a bond that would pay out at $115 in three years was actually selling for more than $115, A NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE, for the privileged of owning a safe investment!!!!

All bonds carry risk.  

Why accept a 1% or 5% interest rate, when you may have 30% of the principal removed as a "scalp haircut" nicely known in the industry as a "re-organization".

There are no safe investments at this time, only relative degrees of high risk.    Cash in USD and Gold are maybe some of the best though, IMHO.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

McC is near Zero, purports a big Move coming on Indices

When the McClellan has a small move, less than 8 points, that predicts a big move in one or two days, sometimes three.   And the colored chart I lifted from Breakpoint Trades by Steve.  They are on my blog roll.

Caribou and the Conflicted Euro and Fear Factor

Everything is just "perched" ready to spring up or down.

I would say that "it is all about the Euro"  which could either spring up or down.   Currently no trading positions on anything, will re-short copper on weakness, NKD on weakness, Euro on just a little bit of weakness.

Fear Factor almost drives me to take big shorts, regardless of whistling past the 1st day of month Graveyard.  

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Caribou Hunting

Doctor Copper looked ominious, nearing a triangle apex, lost the triangle to the downside, and then backtested the downsloping channel....OK here is the are hungry wolf, travelled 50 miles in search of a Caribou herd, chased something that looked like a Caribou, but was really a ranchers livestock and got shot at.   Now it is late in the day, and you see an injured looked little Caribou....but you are afraid you might get shot at again....then you see the backtest.   OK got it?

NKD on a massive pop upward and a pattern I call H2D2 aka bearish wedge, also ES with a 3 drives move, just popping a Fib Fan (if you ignore the afterhours time -- select after hours to be off, since that doesn't truly reflect the overall mood of traders).

All short.   The moon approaches, important lines are hit, joe public is convinced the bull market runs no matter how much bad news is out there, and then some complancency / consolidating boredom days.   Also some secret timing indicators, so secret I don't even know them :) j/k

That is where we ended the day.   Decided to make a run at the Caribou.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Tuesdsay Night Charts (Zero Rants)

A glimpse into the Game:

Fear and dis-insformation.

The Fed (and by that I mean the Federal Government and maybe the Federal Reserve too, since it is now one big happy public/private partnership---p.s. in the pre-spin days, wasn't that called communism or socialism?)

Well, the Fed, wants to scare people into trying to get away from the USD. they have been consistently busting small time Forex "Ponzi Schemes". Joe Six Pack will be scared of touching anything like a currency play.

From the land of the "Great Ponzi" absurdity is what you would expect.

Crossroads -- Euro and Doctor Copper

Euro has a tasty little short zone coming up.

Doctor Copper is triangulating on 2 channels, one up one down, although it is "respecting" the down channel more.

The market tends to become "boring" for a while, as if all the fundamental stuff matter not a bit.   This is the "lured into complacency mode".   Trust me, in the socio-economic reality of human related herd communication, the Japan thing can also turn for the worse, and 50,000,000 Japanese citizens panicking (usually stoic) from a radiation scare....wait until the humans can't occupy the plant space at all, and they aren't ready with the worlds best robots and robot operators.   If that happens...big trouble.   They are not cooling the reactors, they are fighting with radioactive water that may actually be groundwater and may continue to seep into the machinery/pump rooms.  

Sorry---was not even going to mention Japan.   Apparently the workers have limited food, no beds.   Just Insane how a Chinook could easily fly in 600 futons for crying out loud.    What would that take?   A phone call to the US Military in Zama and a credit card.   Help those guys out!  A Military operation would not treat their people like this, military understands that the basics must be taken care of for the workers, as best as can be done.  

Doctor Copper, running out of time, has to decide soon, up or down.

Fukushima - the slow motion train wreck continues

Lies, Statistics, Paid Engineering Studies using Statistics, and Legal Opinions---The makings for a book.

It is now a commonly accepted fact, in my mind, that Black Swans are far more common than any commonly used prediction methods allow for.   In other words, the risk assessment models used are flawed.

A 1992 policy guideline by the NSC also concluded core damage at one of Japan's reactors severe enough to release radiation would be an event with a probability of once in 185 years. So with such a limited risk of happening, the best policy, the guidelines say, is to leave emergency response planning to Tokyo electric and other plant operators.

185 years?   A huh.   Seems like more like 2 in 20 years, just in Japan.

In fact without even breaking out the tin foil hat, seems like roughly 20 to 30 radiation release events in the nuclear industry in the last 30 years.   This is a rough assessment from my own reading.  

Even though nuclear is a field of interest for me, most of these, except Chernobyl, Three Mile Island (TMI), and Fukushima have escaped my attention.  Cover-up?  Sure.   Media control and downplay, sure.

Thorium is a no brainer transition from Uranium based nuclear power.   Basically uranium was used because we needed plutonium for bombs.   The industry grew up around uranium.   Uranium has much higher dangers than thorium. We need something that is inherently more safe. 

The answer is to force the industry into thorium.   Contact all your State, Local, and Federal reps and educate them with a 10 second sound bite.    Make your point quick and clean.

Monday, March 28, 2011

New World Order

SDRs (the new currency of the new World Order, coming soon) are the tools of the powers that be to maintain and expand their power.

The original SDRs were created with a basket of 6 currencies I believe.   Now China wants in, thye want Yuan to be part of it, they also want to trade in the SDR's and therefore to quickly convert back to Yuan, it will be helpful to be a part of the basket.    1/4 Trillion of SDRs were created in 2010 to facilitate China trading.   Very soon, they willl issue a huge $2T of SDR's.

Definitions: Monitizing the Deb= Defaulting on the Debt

Big Ben says : I am not printing money, I am digitizing the banks....shifting the decimal place for the banks asset at will.

So here is the scoop.   If the powers that be want to create this New World Order, there is little that can be done to stop them.    The question is how do we prepare for this New World Order and how can we benefit from the NWO?

The SDR's will be a big part of how "they" maintain and advance control and power.

That is the question of the year.  

How to prepare and benefit from the NWO?

Egg of Doom, Log Scale

Here is a link for those with Stockcharts membership, for the Egg of Doom

Egg of Doom -- Log Scale

Here is the Egg directly.    PLEASE send a link of this page to 2 or 3 of your friends who may be interested.   We are at a crossroads.

Is Lead More of a Moon Shot than Gold

Simple Reality check--

Lots of commodities have gone up more than Gold or Silver.   Take a look at the weekly charts below and the percentage gains, from Finviz, you can go there directly to get a clearer view.   Then as an exercise, find some charts to take you back 4 years.

POINT- sure gold has gone up a bunch, and has now floundered around for quite some time.  And gold gets alot of press, it has become mainstream conversation.

Numerous states in the US are detecting small amounts of radiation from Japan.  

Marttin Armstrong Partly released, still a prisoner in his own home

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Sunday Charts

If you have a Stockcharts membership, you may want to put this one in your favorites$BKX:$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p58692124151&a=229288951

I call this one the "Ellipse of Wealth"

Wow--90 people viewing the Ellipse of Doom (see prior post)

 Find your State on the Chart

Great comment on using the news

The below is from John,  posting at Daneric blog.   If you haven't visited Daneric, you should.
What John says rings true with me.   Actually for my trading systems, I have printed what he said and put it in my 3 ring binder as a constant reminder on how to use the news.   Also true about the empathy for real people, but a cold blooded trader of the markets.   Some might think that shorting NKD (Nikkei futures) during the disasters was "Evil".   This is easy to understand, in fact 10 years ago I would have felt the same.   A short on NKD is not "shorting Japan", it is taking the other side of the bet from someone who thinks NKD will go up.   Simple as that.

Thanks for reading and fine to disagree. That makes life interesting. I always try to keep open and analyze things objectively as a scientist and constantly pull in differing opinions and analyze them in case I need to change. I have no real emotion at all. Some say I am cold blooded when it comes to some things like the markets in general. With people I am very compassionate but with markets no emotion - just data streams.
When I am trading I do not care how many people are dying or how many are suffering - just markets reaction to the deaths and suffering. But when I walk away from my trading desk, I am sending money to those in need and helping others.

------news content versus news reactions------
#1) When a bull market, which we are in now, discounts bad news and in this case very bad black swan type news and quickly resumes its upward trend that means the bull market is still strong. If however this bull market reacted to the recent news and went down 15-20% and stayed down, that would mean the bull market had lost power and was maybe over or needing a longer term serious correction to restore itself.

I do not listen to the news as much as I just watch the markets reaction to the news. The only thing that is important is the markets reaction to the news. For EW purists, that is the wave pattern playing out. When news is posted or earnings report. I look first look at the markets' reaction to it before I even look at the news or report. Then I later go back and read the full story. Did they buy it? Discount it? or what. For example earnings period is coming up. When I know the time a report is being posted, I watch the running stock chart and try not to even look at the news posted. I don't care what the report said. How did the market react to it?

When they post economic news, I look at the market reaction first and not even the news at all until later.
If you are a trader, especially day trader, you may need to have your hand on the buy or sell button instead of wasting time reading the story. The algos read the story in a couple seconds and then trade. Your position could go down 10-15% before you get done with the third paragraph of the story. Finger on the buy/sell button. Watch the tape. Then later read the story.

The reaction to the news not the news itself tells you the emotional foundation of the market. Also remember that the people who control the markets also control a great amount of the news. So I watch carefully to see what news is being posted and how it is treated. For example. Japan Nuclear situation is not better, but last weekend the mood changed over the weekend and they decided to discount that news and not post it and glamorize it. When they were over doing it, they obviously wanted the market to go down. So last Monday I could tell they had changed the tone of the same news so that meant they were done with that part of the correction for now. Later of course they can bring back some of this news if they want the markets to go down more.

Because of the news publication mood changed quicker than I thought, I changed my forecast from most likely to test the lows or go lower again. To not likely to unless something new and even more horrible happened out of their initial control.

Actual Charts, not just rants!

Went into the weekend short Euro, long USD,

Added to the short Euro --note how the PRS177 PERFECTLY! nailed the top on the Euro.   This was not drawn after the fact, it is predictive.   It is not perfect but it is better than everything else.

this chart is from JXXH on Daneric, awesome telling stuff.

Added to the short Euro --note how the PRS177 PERFECTLY! nailed the top on the Euro.   This was not drawn after the fact, it is predictive.   It is not perfect but it is better than everything else.

A few Japan links

Radiation trending upward in Berkeley California

Good summary of the 6 reactors by NY Times

The situation is headed for the worse, they have lost control, and it is possible that at some point all humans will have to be evacuated and then just let the processes do what they will do.   I continue to be shocked at the near complete lack of robots that could at least mitigate some future damages.

And here is my "Original" post from March 16th--