Fear Factor

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Fear Factor, have we already broken the wedge. Or is this impending support?   If we drop more (greater fear), than I expect the drop to be large.   Terra Incognito.  

Quick Review

Lets step back and look at the forest.

The first round of QE had a payback of around 10%, for every Trillion "invested", or sent into a "shovel ready" project, the GDP went up around $100B.

The stock market did not go up based upon "real factors".   80% of the rise occurred on low volume after hours futures trades.   This was gub'mint sponsored....they told HBB to work overtime and to pimp up the future afterhours in exchange for 1) saving their asses, 2) continued free money.

Dabama is a great orator, great politician and fund raiser.   He "gets it" when it comes to influencing humans.   He doesn't know diddly about business or the financial markets, and thinks that all we need is "con"fidence.

No one wants to take their medicine before they have to, and your elected leaders are no different.   They will try anything to avoid pain, even if the avoidance has a high likelihood of causing more serious pain.

90% of the big financial problems--yes, it's a banking problem....the collapse of the easy money Ponzi scheme that really has been going on for several decades--- well 90% of those problems were just knowingly hidden and still exists (but hidden) on balance sheets.  Do you know what "Mark to Market" means...if not, research it, it is very important.   Don't just accept it like another financial buzzword.

Speaking of buzzwords...whenever Wallstreet or FETV (Financial Entertainment Television) come up with  some new buzzword...."shields up!"....that is when yet another shenanigan card is going to be played.

OK, hope I covered the basics.  Personally, 50% short on trading account into the weekend, enjoyed the nice mini-tank at EOD.

steveo

Spooky Fri the 13th! Euro could tank

An observation----people are starting to act really sketchy.   People going off over little things that hardly matter.  Seen it 10 times now in 2 weeks.   It is like those monkeys in

2001: A Space Odyssey

are about to throw a bone into the air, but this time it won't become a space ship....this time it will take the spaceship down.  That's evolution.   Even the bears seem to be going off attacking people way more than normal.   I mean real bears.   Call me nuts if you wish.   

Thats part of the big theory.   If we get too cozy sitting in our 

Gemütlichkeit

 little caverns, gathering grains, and living on easy money, the result will be stagnation.   So evolution has come up with a little way by which the progress of species on earth is "enhanced"....every once in a while, the critters (and I include man in that, maybe especially man) just "go off", and through this chaos we progress to the next step.

That is, unless we completely blow ourselves up in the process...then the planet can start over.

This is the GUT of SEA (Grand Unification Theory) of -- Socio Economics Anthropology which is my own "invention", leap frogging off of others work of course.  But as far as I know, the combination into this particular GUT has never been expressed elsewhere.

I figured I could write a book on that, and become famous, and maybe I will, but for now, there it is in a nutshell.

OK more on that theory later.

Tricky Nikkei

Japan is upset the Yen is so strong, and looks like the dollar is about to go on a rally.

Yet the Nikkei has an awesome chart here.   But a drop from here goes against the two above theories.  

Tricky, very tricky.

5 year CDS for European Countries

I have long been stating that Europe will be the first to blow up (well Dubai might sneek in there, but they won't be as important, although they will bring the moment of recognition closer).

However, Eur/USD might be in a 4th wave up after that massive move down.   Watch this closely, it correlates pretty well with SPX.  

One reaason I watch the Euro even though there are better correlators, if the massive effect that can be expected when the Euro blows up.....now there is some predictive arrogance, don't you think?

steveo77

Bears in Control?

What an absurd concept....Bears in Control....

I hear this all the time....sometimes even blog pundits say...."bears have to get going"   The absurdity is large.


Bears short....that doesn't drive down prices.   It make a target for a Gov sponsored bear squeeze.   Or and HBB sponsored bear squeeze using your tax payer dollars at zero interest.


There is NO "BEARS MUST GET GOING"!!!!    OK

Bears do the opposite of making the market go down by going short.

I am just saying the BS is amazing, even on national levels....it will be claimed that the bears caused this downturn by shorting......ABSURD!   Call you local legislature and explain how this make no sense.

Prior post on Bears and Aikido
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/market-comments-and-bear-reality.html

The end game for BP - lies abound

I have been pimping out the idea for over a month that they won't use BOTH "relief" wells to plug the well.    If so, why don't they call a "plug well".

They call it a "relief well" because it can relieve the pressure by removing the oil.

And since when did they pump concrete into the "top kill" aka static kill, never heard of it before today......hmmmmmm

The games they play are incredible, and it proves how bought the media is.   I could do better reporting when I was 13.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20100812/D9HHR4CO0.html

Fear Factor

Remember how I said the Fear Factor was running out of time, into the end of the triangle.


See my last Sundays post below, entitled 5 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, 2nd Horse
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/chart-of-charts-fear-factor-and-vixvxv.html

Well pretty much nailed that like a boneless chicken to a ouiji board.

But there is Bullish aspects to everything.   After all, realistic levels of fear are Bullish!   Like the Wall of Worry....

Out of shorts 1087.25

Out of my short term positions, based on a bunch of things, ES,EUR, cable

Ready to jump back in.   HBB doesn't want retail to profit from the downside.  

The big moves will come after hours....

Oil volume of sales

this one can't be gamed, its from a COT type trader that send out email reports.

New ES Channel and movie in the link

Here is a short movie that shows the 5 minute chart of ES and a new channel (PRS of course) that seems to have many touch points.   Especially those "thin tails" are the important ones as they showed big moves stopped by some support or resistance.

http://screencast.com/t/ZGJlYjlhNT

This one is big --Euro busted its PRS, but GBP (cable) is just bouncing off its 50% channel line

Great chart from

This was stolen from Albertarocks who posts on Daneric quite a bit.

He has been posting it up in various forms the last few days.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX:$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72690815024&a=205659747

Steveo

Bullish is the only way to go!

I won't let these overnight futures bother me, I will buy the dip!   Everyone has learned that buying the dip is OK it works!    Bullish!   But please review the charts.

And nothing says Bullish like this other guy on the TTW blog (one of the best), stating how he is glad that sold puts into the close.    And my response was very BULLLISH.

Bernanke will save the world, at least the US!

This is going to get interesting.   I am SO Bullish.

Bullish on Bucky that is.

NZD/USD is verged on breaking a strong uptrend line support, using the energy from a triangle right above the line to bust through.

USD/SEK is about to make a run up after a nicely formed 5 down, and a decent but kind of sketchy trendline from last December when the USD was getting pounded.

Here is the interesting part....Big Ben wants to "talk" down the dollar, at the same time that the dollar wants to rally.  

When someone says "I want to live in interesting times", I say

Be careful what you wish for.

Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Go Bernanke!

I nailed this wedge break and backtest in real time yesterday, time will tell.

The wedge was drawn last week, and the backtest yesterday.


http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/cable-again.html


This is Fed day, BTW, and the great evil bald one speaketh soon.  Who knows, maybe he thinks he is doing something good for the country.

All I Hear these days is CABLE! Bullish Bullish Bullish

The 2 day, 3 day, and 4 day candles are all pretty bearish for the poor little Cable....We were happy for you Cable, having such a nice run....

Bullish bullish bullish, buy calls. Short the 3x Shorts!

I have a new strategy, to fool the robot spiders that crawl the web....I am bullish, very bullish, inverse head and shoulders, the fed will save the day, yeah Bernanke!
Obama is a brilliant businessman and understands financial system and economics.

OK did you get it?

Cable and Euro taking a pounding as expected from the PRS 133 and then the rising wedge and backtest

Cable - again

Commodities against various currencies

Check this link it is awesome way to view Doctor Copper and others.

http://www.basemetals.com/Aluminium/?tab=2〈=EN


Copper price and stock levels are giving conflicting signals in this highly gamed market.

Total Market, Total Wedge and Backtest already in place.

I took some liberty in how I drew this lower wedge line, but maybe that eliminates some of the gaming noise.

Dubai far off the radar but should it be?

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100403/PERSONALFINANCE/704029893/1056/rss

Read this article.   What a joke.....

The bailout will enhance everything it touches,  and for those who want more yield come and get it, except it might blowup completely.  So instead of making 11% you will lose 100%

UK far off the radar but should it be?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d59895f0-a070-11df-a669-00144feabdc0.html

The Egg, and More

And keep in mind, messing with HBB is like messing with Sasquatch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LnDN6y9DU&feature=related

5 Horsemen of the Apocalypse

Here is a treat for you reptilian brained leeches (Mole used to say that).

Without further adieu, let them rip.   Please comment on these chart or any of your favorite indicators.