http://peterdag.blogspot.com/2010/01/must-readfrom-smart-businessman-and.html
Please read through this and comment on what you think.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Recap of recent theories:
A very good blog participant asked: (Transworlddepravity)
"Steve I think I understand what your charts are showing but can you explain it. Does it have anything to do with what's happening to the $TYX. I know Gary from Biiwii.com keeps track of it. Not sure if I understand the full implication other than long term yields are going through the roof. Hello mortgage interest?"http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/money-flows-from-mutual-funds.html
Boatload of Charts
http://www.ambgtrading.com/
Some other perspectives and ideas.
PLEASE COMMENT, even throw down some of your own charts.
Out
Euro Up and US Equities Down
Euro Up, and US Stocks down, thats a good sign for the bears....God forbid we have 2 days in a row in the red though!
CCARD credit act is about to rear it's ugly head
For many small business, especially those providing renewable energy systems--the "CARD" act, will be hurtful in the near term and the long long. Short term loans that enable consumers to obtain a renewable energy system but not pay any out of pocket until they receieve tax credits back, make it possible for many people to get these systems that have a 15% to 70% annual rate of return.
On February 22, 2010, the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009 or Credit CARD Act of 2009 will go into effect.
To make up for expected banking losses of up to $50B (say 35 of the tallest building in the world), credit card issuers are taking action now, before the act goes into effect:
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/precious-metal-arithmetic-chart.html
* Jacking up APRs,
* cutting credit limits,
* changing fixed rates to variable rates,
* eradicating or severely limiting promotional rates and lastly,
* but most interestingly,
* introducing new fees.
You best read all that "junk mail" coming to you from credit companies or you might be surprised with some nasty fees. Best yet...get rid of all short term debt that is not in some way making you more money.
So prior to this, consumers were being nickeled and dimed for up to 35 of the largest buildings in the world ($50B).
Off to work AGAIN today. Will try to crank up some charts this weekend, not sure that a "trend change" can be justified just by 1 day action though.
Let's see what Chart of Charts has to say after the close today.
CCARD credit act is about to rear it's ugly head
For many small business, especially those providing renewable energy systems--the "CARD" act, will be hurtful in the near term and the long long. Short term loans that enable consumers to obtain a renewable energy system but not pay any out of pocket until they receieve tax credits back, make it possible for many people to get these systems that have a 15% to 70% annual rate of return.
On February 22, 2010, the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009 or Credit CARD Act of 2009 will go into effect.
To make up for expected banking losses of up to $50B (say 35 of the tallest building in the world), credit card issuers are taking action now, before the act goes into effect:
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/precious-metal-arithmetic-chart.html
* Jacking up APRs,
* cutting credit limits,
* changing fixed rates to variable rates,
* eradicating or severely limiting promotional rates and lastly,
* but most interestingly,
* introducing new fees.
You best read all that "junk mail" coming to you from credit companies or you might be surprised with some nasty fees. Best yet...get rid of all short term debt that is not in some way making you more money.
So prior to this, consumers were being nickeled and dimed for up to 35 of the largest buildings in the world ($50B).
Off to work AGAIN today. Will try to crank up some charts this weekend, not sure that a "trend change" can be justified just by 1 day action though.
Let's see what Chart of Charts has to say after the close today.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Land of Tinfoil Hats
Just consider this....
Obama has authorized the Fed to give interest free money to The combo Banker/Brokers/Financial "Product" Engineers (we call this HBB or Humongous Bank and Broker).
In return, HBB promises to have their trader work overtime and on weekends pumping up equity index futures so that the stockmarket goes up and people get their confidence back.
Obama now is disgusted that HBB is going to hand out huge bonuses and make huge profits, while 17% of the country is unemployed. They are also not giving out loans to people and businesses, nor are they helping people stay in their home (not much, anyway). So he makes some penalty type laws against them.
They withdraw their bids from the market, and market has no where to go but down. Market drops 2%. After all, they are the market makers. This is punishment to the President for even trying to step on their toes.
Lets see how long this punishment phase lasts, or whether some concessions on the Bankers are made "to ensure the recovery continues".
Cynical? Sure.
Obama has authorized the Fed to give interest free money to The combo Banker/Brokers/Financial "Product" Engineers (we call this HBB or Humongous Bank and Broker).
In return, HBB promises to have their trader work overtime and on weekends pumping up equity index futures so that the stockmarket goes up and people get their confidence back.
Obama now is disgusted that HBB is going to hand out huge bonuses and make huge profits, while 17% of the country is unemployed. They are also not giving out loans to people and businesses, nor are they helping people stay in their home (not much, anyway). So he makes some penalty type laws against them.
They withdraw their bids from the market, and market has no where to go but down. Market drops 2%. After all, they are the market makers. This is punishment to the President for even trying to step on their toes.
Lets see how long this punishment phase lasts, or whether some concessions on the Bankers are made "to ensure the recovery continues".
Cynical? Sure.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Market Comments and Bear Reality
The market is fractured. The MM's are ramping it up and down....they make money when they withdraw their bids, then they make money when they know the gov is asking them to throw down a few hundred million at the market to "bring confidence back".
The rest get whipsawed and scared.
I see all the time "Bears got to get going".
BUT THIS MAKES NO SENSE.
The bears cannot make the market go down by shorting. When bears short, all they do is set a number of stops which are known to the market makers as targets for a mini-rally. By shorting, you become a target.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/emerging-markets.html
That has been the game since July. Taxpayer money and bear money have been the only thing that have jacked this market up. Mutual fund money is fleeing on a consistent level...for many many months.
This is yet another Ponzi scheme.
Bears CANNOT "GET GOING". It is impossible. Bears are smart....smart like Aikidoists. Bears must use their opponents energy against them, just as an Aikidoist does. A good Aikido student, say a 110 pound woman, can beat an in shape 200 pound man, seriously. But not by going head to head, and not by being drawn into the battle by emotion, or on the attackers ground.
But the smaller victor wins by using the opponents energy against them, and by using the opponents ego against them. And by endless practice, and a beautiful confluence of physics and mindgames.
And thus is the story of the successful bear....until the market is clearly in their favor...and then boldness will magnify the fruits of their labor.
BUT -- Bears cannot "get going". That is absurd. The energy of the Bulls must be exhausted, and the Sheeples must get scared. Then the bears can profit. Until then....shorting is only a target that will be gamed. This is clear enough now....even the Government wants "confidence to come back" when in reality, real economic conditions and a work and savings ethic, and an elimination of "union" type entitlement thinking, is what really must come back.
AND reasonable valuations of the S&P (around 350 would be reasonable). And tha's why I pick 200 as an overshoot(which always happens...reversion beyond the mean), at which point I will consider taking a position trade as long. Dow to 400 as EWI predicts, is a bit of an extreme, but it could happen. S&P 500= 200 Points seems totally reasonable...even without a "Primary 3" in which we are selling silver coins to buy gas.
Until reasonable valuation occur, I am a bear.
Until bullish uptrend is broken, I am a non-shorting bear.
We may be close, however, never underestimate the power of Government Intervention.
Bear Out.
The rest get whipsawed and scared.
I see all the time "Bears got to get going".
BUT THIS MAKES NO SENSE.
The bears cannot make the market go down by shorting. When bears short, all they do is set a number of stops which are known to the market makers as targets for a mini-rally. By shorting, you become a target.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/emerging-markets.html
That has been the game since July. Taxpayer money and bear money have been the only thing that have jacked this market up. Mutual fund money is fleeing on a consistent level...for many many months.
This is yet another Ponzi scheme.
Bears CANNOT "GET GOING". It is impossible. Bears are smart....smart like Aikidoists. Bears must use their opponents energy against them, just as an Aikidoist does. A good Aikido student, say a 110 pound woman, can beat an in shape 200 pound man, seriously. But not by going head to head, and not by being drawn into the battle by emotion, or on the attackers ground.
But the smaller victor wins by using the opponents energy against them, and by using the opponents ego against them. And by endless practice, and a beautiful confluence of physics and mindgames.
And thus is the story of the successful bear....until the market is clearly in their favor...and then boldness will magnify the fruits of their labor.
BUT -- Bears cannot "get going". That is absurd. The energy of the Bulls must be exhausted, and the Sheeples must get scared. Then the bears can profit. Until then....shorting is only a target that will be gamed. This is clear enough now....even the Government wants "confidence to come back" when in reality, real economic conditions and a work and savings ethic, and an elimination of "union" type entitlement thinking, is what really must come back.
AND reasonable valuations of the S&P (around 350 would be reasonable). And tha's why I pick 200 as an overshoot(which always happens...reversion beyond the mean), at which point I will consider taking a position trade as long. Dow to 400 as EWI predicts, is a bit of an extreme, but it could happen. S&P 500= 200 Points seems totally reasonable...even without a "Primary 3" in which we are selling silver coins to buy gas.
Until reasonable valuation occur, I am a bear.
Until bullish uptrend is broken, I am a non-shorting bear.
We may be close, however, never underestimate the power of Government Intervention.
Bear Out.
Long Euro, at least for a little while
Went long on this cup and handle, and thinking that the 38 Fib is a good target.
Fib Fan from the Great Depression Still in Play
We first noted this line in July 2009. Is this the last great hope of bears? The one line that will not fall to the "Great Bull" of 2009.
And when I say "Great Bull" I mean that in a joking way.
And when I say "Great Bull" I mean that in a joking way.
Entire World is Red, Except Ol' Bucky, US Bonds, and OJ
New feature on Finviz---great website
And below, we were kind of harping on this EUR short trade, and it actually happened
And below, we were kind of harping on this EUR short trade, and it actually happened
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Pensioners---Get Ready to be Hosed
The US has lived "too high off it's hog" for too long.
Their are future promises that will not be kept, including many people pensions.
The IRA, 401K, government retirement accounts, and company retirement accounts are also at grave risk.
I hate to be callous about this....but why would anyone think that these promises would be kept?
Seriously....that promise of a large and continously made payment until you die, and sometimes after you die, and until your wife dies....why would anyone seriously expect these promises to be kept?
And it's not just the US, many countries have bubbled up, most of the "developed countries" anyway.
Adjust for the future, it may come sooner than you may like it too.
And the Fed may keep ramping up equities, it only costs them a few hundred million a day to do so....and its your tax money making you feel like you are rich....so why should they care?
The Fed is not part of the US Government although they are "beholden" to each other. They are in bed with each other.
And the value of equities....same deal. These are not even paper, just electronic clicks.
Get some currency, Gold, and Silver doesn't stink, but it is likely to either go down faster or not rise as fast.
If you want real currency, buy Gold. Continuously. Every 2 weeks. Just my opinion of course.
Out
Their are future promises that will not be kept, including many people pensions.
The IRA, 401K, government retirement accounts, and company retirement accounts are also at grave risk.
I hate to be callous about this....but why would anyone think that these promises would be kept?
Seriously....that promise of a large and continously made payment until you die, and sometimes after you die, and until your wife dies....why would anyone seriously expect these promises to be kept?
And it's not just the US, many countries have bubbled up, most of the "developed countries" anyway.
Adjust for the future, it may come sooner than you may like it too.
And the Fed may keep ramping up equities, it only costs them a few hundred million a day to do so....and its your tax money making you feel like you are rich....so why should they care?
The Fed is not part of the US Government although they are "beholden" to each other. They are in bed with each other.
And the value of equities....same deal. These are not even paper, just electronic clicks.
Get some currency, Gold, and Silver doesn't stink, but it is likely to either go down faster or not rise as fast.
If you want real currency, buy Gold. Continuously. Every 2 weeks. Just my opinion of course.
Out
Trading Thoughts, EURO, and UNG
Working alot this week. Definitely no time for daytrading.
A few may find daytrading the next week or two very proifitable.
I am thinking that "they" just ramp it up and down catching profits from bears and bulls alike. But trying to swing or position trade this boneless chicken flopping around on hot tarmac type of trading atmosphere could be very annoying.
Keep an eye on EUR/USD, could have a big move down.
UPDATE - shit it just did.
This guy in Portugal does a good job of staying on top the EUR/USD
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmidasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com%2F&langpair=pt|en&hl=en
UNG is a freak....it is derived by futures, but 60% of all the futures in the NatGas market are owned by UNG....this means the head is bigger than the body.
Now "more information" is going to be available on the COT reports....I predict more volatility on UNG because of this. More information means more deception for the most part.
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5773-10.html
Out
A few may find daytrading the next week or two very proifitable.
I am thinking that "they" just ramp it up and down catching profits from bears and bulls alike. But trying to swing or position trade this boneless chicken flopping around on hot tarmac type of trading atmosphere could be very annoying.
Keep an eye on EUR/USD, could have a big move down.
UPDATE - shit it just did.
This guy in Portugal does a good job of staying on top the EUR/USD
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmidasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com%2F&langpair=pt|en&hl=en
UNG is a freak....it is derived by futures, but 60% of all the futures in the NatGas market are owned by UNG....this means the head is bigger than the body.
Now "more information" is going to be available on the COT reports....I predict more volatility on UNG because of this. More information means more deception for the most part.
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5773-10.html
Out
Monday, January 18, 2010
Precious Metal Arithmetic Chart and Dubai Musings / Relative Value
Since Gold historically trades at 40 times Silvers value, I multiply SLV by 40.
Since GLD is derived at 1/10 the price of gold, I multiply by 10 to bring it back to "dollars"
Keep in mind, this precious metal Arith chart is based on THE USD, It would be interesting to see what it would look like in other currencies.
Any good EW'ers out there that could put a wave count on this?
Just as a matter of perspective, look at the relative size of the worlds tallest building in Dubai.
It cost JUST 1.5B to build.
http://www.businesspundit.com/burj-dubai-worlds-tallest-building-opens-today/
Use that as perspective to evaluate some of the big numbers being bantered around today. If a Bankster needs $15B to "Keep America Strong" that is equivalent to the money needed to build 10 "Tallest Buildings".
Since GLD is derived at 1/10 the price of gold, I multiply by 10 to bring it back to "dollars"
Any good EW'ers out there that could put a wave count on this?
It cost JUST 1.5B to build.
http://www.businesspundit.com/burj-dubai-worlds-tallest-building-opens-today/
Use that as perspective to evaluate some of the big numbers being bantered around today. If a Bankster needs $15B to "Keep America Strong" that is equivalent to the money needed to build 10 "Tallest Buildings".
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Thinking about buying a house now?
Best to review these interactive charts. And really, looking at longer term charts is even more helpful.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Goldman is doing God's work....continues. There will be a special place in hell for the money changers.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/182922-goldman-finally-concedes-it-did-indeed-create-the-credit-crunch?source=article_lb_articles
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Goldman is doing God's work....continues. There will be a special place in hell for the money changers.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/182922-goldman-finally-concedes-it-did-indeed-create-the-credit-crunch?source=article_lb_articles
Musing by Armstrong
Some of you may be familiar with Martin Armstrong
Mr. Armstrong does grant his consent and allow anyone to send this material to any person or government.
Below is a link to his 21 page report on the USD, he touches on other currencies, and safe havens.
Here is my first try at google Docs....now they don't force you to convert your file to a Google Docs format, let's see how it works.
http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0Bw-I-TTWWy6JYWQzZjA0YjItOGU5NC00ODA0LTkwOWYtNjhiNjlkZDg0YjU5&hl=en
Below is my other attempt at file sharing, you have to wait 10 seconds while a timer times out, then go to download area.
http://www.yourfilelink.com/get.php?fid=527236
The file serving service is:
http://www.yourfilelink.com/upload.php
I would like to see more people posting files to share. Spreadsheets and the like.
I haven't found the perfect file sharing program yet...seems like they all want you to jump through a few hoops to get what you want, while they market to you.
If anyone has better ideas on how to share files more directly, please advise.
And you can register at
www.armstrongeconomics.com
to receive updates and special reports when critical.
I am placing this post on my blog so you can easily find it in the future. Just search for Armstrong in the search box.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
Mr. Armstrong does grant his consent and allow anyone to send this material to any person or government.
Below is a link to his 21 page report on the USD, he touches on other currencies, and safe havens.
Here is my first try at google Docs....now they don't force you to convert your file to a Google Docs format, let's see how it works.
http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0Bw-I-TTWWy6JYWQzZjA0YjItOGU5NC00ODA0LTkwOWYtNjhiNjlkZDg0YjU5&hl=en
Below is my other attempt at file sharing, you have to wait 10 seconds while a timer times out, then go to download area.
http://www.yourfilelink.com/get.php?fid=527236
The file serving service is:
http://www.yourfilelink.com/upload.php
I would like to see more people posting files to share. Spreadsheets and the like.
I haven't found the perfect file sharing program yet...seems like they all want you to jump through a few hoops to get what you want, while they market to you.
If anyone has better ideas on how to share files more directly, please advise.
And you can register at
www.armstrongeconomics.com
to receive updates and special reports when critical.
I am placing this post on my blog so you can easily find it in the future. Just search for Armstrong in the search box.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
Ratio Charts on Prophet Charts
Prophet Charts recently introduced what Tim Knight knows as a misnomer "Ratio Charts". It is really more powerful that that....you can do all sorts of arithmetic with any number of tickers. For now I have mostly played with the ratio aspect.
Example of potential arithmetic: Since silver historically trades for 1/40th that of gold, you could make a Precious Metals chart, formula (GLD + (SLV*40)).
You can also do ratios on Stockcharts.
Looking for feedback from you all. Has anyone found particular ratios that chart well, are fib friendly, etc. Or perhaps some ratios that are predictive of a move in another ticker.
So far I like the USO / GLD chart, a clear bear flag. Short Oil Long Gold should be a good "pair trade". Even if both Oil and Gold go down, Oil should go down faster.
Example of potential arithmetic: Since silver historically trades for 1/40th that of gold, you could make a Precious Metals chart, formula (GLD + (SLV*40)).
You can also do ratios on Stockcharts.
Looking for feedback from you all. Has anyone found particular ratios that chart well, are fib friendly, etc. Or perhaps some ratios that are predictive of a move in another ticker.
So far I like the USO / GLD chart, a clear bear flag. Short Oil Long Gold should be a good "pair trade". Even if both Oil and Gold go down, Oil should go down faster.
UNG Natural Gas, a Freak of a Futures related fund
If you owned UNG in any way in 2009, expect delays in your ability to file your taxes.
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