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Saturday, February 27, 2010

Chile has had a boatload of earthquakes over the last 2 days!!!!!

MAP  5.0   2010/02/28 04:29:12   -34.905    -69.631  35.0   MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
MAP  4.9   2010/02/27 14:29:10   -35.028    -71.714  35.0   MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 13:12:52   -35.014    -71.660  35.0   MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 08:53:27   -35.073    -71.760  35.0   MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/28 03:23:49   -37.681    -73.533  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/28 02:41:10   -38.054    -73.213  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/28 01:33:12   -36.600    -72.771  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 20:44:34   -37.893    -73.423  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 19:06:18   -37.473    -73.502  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 18:41:51   -37.581    -73.501  34.9   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 16:27:58   -37.820    -73.404  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 16:21:14   -38.266    -73.434  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 14:20:00   -37.274    -73.062  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 14:06:47   -37.288    -72.835  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 12:44:50   -36.999    -73.038  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 12:23:06   -36.253    -72.266  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.8   2010/02/27 09:59:21   -37.991    -73.467  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 07:51:06   -36.399    -72.498  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 07:46:50   -36.795    -72.924  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  6.0   2010/02/27 07:37:18   -36.837    -72.541  35.0   BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.8   2010/02/27 23:02:01   -37.755    -72.713  35.2   ARAUCANIA, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 13:07:42   -38.436    -73.254  35.0   ARAUCANIA, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 09:00:18   -33.425    -71.625  35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 08:19:24   -33.479    -71.574  35.0   VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  4.7   2010/02/23 22:27:28   -23.987    -68.867  98.2   ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/28 04:17:52   -34.723    -72.183  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  4.6   2010/02/28 04:12:52   -34.826    -72.949  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE

 5.1   2010/02/28 03:13:40   -35.229    -72.813  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE

 5.2   2010/02/28 01:58:50   -34.876    -72.646  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE

 5.1   2010/02/27 22:20:04   -35.094    -72.712  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
 5.2   2010/02/27 21:43:11   -35.131    -72.450  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 16:32:21   -34.986    -72.356  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.7   2010/02/27 08:31:05   -34.820    -72.443  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  6.1   2010/02/27 08:25:30   -34.750    -72.394  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 07:19:49   -35.811    -72.945  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  6.2   2010/02/27 06:52:35   -34.735    -72.638  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  8.8   2010/02/27 06:34:15   -35.846    -72.719  35.0   OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/28 02:38:32   -38.270    -73.633  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/28 01:01:12   -36.791    -73.352  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/28 00:53:34   -37.949    -73.659  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/28 00:00:49   -36.573    -73.279  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 22:16:15   -36.491    -73.380  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 21:59:08   -36.794    -73.311  34.8   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  4.9   2010/02/27 21:41:30   -36.564    -73.509  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 19:46:10   -36.090    -73.332  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/27 18:23:12   -37.618    -73.818  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 18:15:23   -37.527    -73.696  20.8   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 17:43:37   -36.453    -72.978  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 17:24:34   -36.256    -72.927  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 17:22:26   -38.043    -73.629  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 16:37:34   -37.509    -73.605  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  4.9   2010/02/27 13:04:51   -37.115    -73.325  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 12:46:19   -37.699    -73.681  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 11:45:03   -36.318    -73.216  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/27 11:27:00   -38.103    -73.587  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 10:54:24   -36.828    -73.336  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.9   2010/02/27 10:38:36   -38.019    -73.575  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 09:21:26   -36.609    -73.218  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.4   2010/02/27 07:59:56   -36.050    -73.562  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 07:56:37   -36.933    -73.240  35.0   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 07:33:31   -38.007    -73.484  35.7   OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  4.8   2010/02/28 02:13:14   -32.996    -72.798  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  4.9   2010/02/27 20:05:28   -33.470    -72.470  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  6.3   2010/02/27 19:00:08   -33.425    -71.909  34.8   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 13:54:04   -33.269    -71.834  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.9   2010/02/27 10:30:35   -33.559    -72.636  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 10:10:15   -33.701    -72.184  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 08:13:16   -33.062    -71.702  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  6.0   2010/02/27 07:12:29   -33.807    -71.913  35.0   OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/28 01:08:24   -34.113    -71.947  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.8   2010/02/27 23:12:35   -34.741    -71.864  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 22:22:33   -34.072    -71.308  35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 18:12:51   -33.847    -71.577  35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/27 17:56:53   -34.688    -71.571  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 17:11:49   -33.953    -71.796  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 16:50:20   -34.162    -72.010  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 15:09:08   -33.890    -71.268  35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 12:58:33   -33.443    -70.944  35.0   REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE
MAP  4.9   2010/02/27 12:28:48   -34.187    -70.439  35.0   LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  6.9   2010/02/27 08:01:24   -37.654    -75.199  39.0   OFF THE COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 14:40:53   -31.321    -74.548  35.0   OFF THE COAST OF COQUIMBO, CHILE
MAP  5.6   2010/02/27 08:48:05   -38.584    -75.257  35.0   OFF THE COAST OF ARAUCANIA, CHILE
MAP  4.9   2010/02/28 04:04:51   -33.742    -73.092  35.0   OFF THE COAST OF VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  4.8   2010/02/28 03:20:15   -33.062    -74.055  35.0   OFF THE COAST OF VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 21:00:37   -33.855    -73.028  35.0   OFF THE COAST OF VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 23:35:15   -33.867    -72.226  34.8   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 22:13:52   -34.437    -72.531  35.0   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 21:48:26   -33.968    -72.140  28.6   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/27 14:23:28   -34.505    -72.596  35.0   OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/28 02:04:29   -34.610    -73.532  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.2   2010/02/28 01:45:29   -34.436    -73.728  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  4.8   2010/02/28 01:24:43   -34.726    -73.401  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.0   2010/02/27 20:29:23   -34.689    -73.621  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.1   2010/02/27 15:23:06   -34.528    -74.987  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.5   2010/02/27 12:03:27   -34.399    -73.825  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP  5.3   2010/02/27 08:53:57   -34.447    -73.397  35.0   OFF COAST OF LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE

Chart of Charts -- Bullish but skittish.

Charts of Charts....says bullish, but that bullishness is dropping to nuetral.

Like this stuff?  sign up as a follower ---that makes it easy/automatic to follow on a news aggregator.

Tsunami in Hawaii

SORRY-YOU CAN TRY LINK BELOW BUT LOOKS LIKE THE WEBCAM IS OVERLOADED MY PAGE IS NO LONGER RELOADING EVEN AFTER WAITING TEN MINUTES--Ill try to find some other web cams that may be of interest, like Waimea bay.

http://www.tsunami.org/hilobaycam.html

OK FOUND a good link....lots of wave cams....some should work.

http://livesurfcamhawaii.com/oahu/northshore.htm

And for the tin-hatters --- Yellowstone
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/publications/2010/10swarm.php
The best bays "as amplifiers" will be Hilo, Haleiwa, Hanalei, and Kahului.

No this isn't the long awaited Pee-Three Elliot Wave.

The link below will take you to Hilo Bay Web Cam located on top of the Pacific Tsunami Museum.  The think tank boys are predicting maybe 12 to 15 foot waves in Hilo bay.

Bays act as amplifiers for long waves like Tsnamis.  Hilo was bodyslammed by a large Tsunami in 1946.

Note that the Haiti earthquake happened right on the eclipse which was a no moon.
The current Chile and Japan Earthquakes happened on the approaching full moon.
This is a push me/pull me affect of the large gravitational pull of the moon as it lines up with the sun.

Affects on the markets?  Moons have been particularly accurate predictions of turning points this year, although direction is not "known".   Massive earthquakes are not a good sign though, for the collective pysche in the current "Mass Global Pychosis" as Daneric has so nicely coined.

Most events in Hawaii have been cancelled, shorelines are being evacuated.   People are filling up their gas tanks and water jugs.   Just in case.  

I'll post some still photos from Kunia Oahu, about 400 feet up, safe viewing of the ocean off Oahu.  It's about 8:30AM local time, tsunami expected starting 11:00AM or a little later, and maybe waves coming for several hours.  




Friday, February 26, 2010

Friday Chart Update, odd similarity in index patterns

Sure, stocks and indices do follow each other....herding instinct being what it is.   But usually, not exactly.  Look at the first graphic....uncanny exact match.   In several thousand days of watching the markets, this is only the second time I have see the 3 indices match each other so closely.   The last time was about a week ago.    Strange, very strange.   The tin-foil hat comes out.   

I am still not excited about this market.  I think it is whipsaw heaven, or hell, as the case may be.  I have a few short positions, EEM, and TSN, and close to  throwing them under the bus. 

On the weekend I will try to produce Chart of Charts.  There were alot of bearish charts this M,Tu,W, but Thurs Fri could change that complexion, I haven't analyzed yet.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

The FF- Fear Factor - Not a TV show, an indicator

This Fear Factor Thing --- it is interesting to say the least!

It is more than a simple ratio chart, it is a combo ratio chart with additions and multiplications.  It seems to be pretty good at leading meltdowns.   See prior posts for interpretations and derivations.  

In this chart, I plot not just the Fear Factor but its 2 main sub components (numerator and denominator) and they are also both interesting.  Way more interesting than the drivel you get from CNBS, or the other owned media marts.



If you like this type of original charts, please sign up as a follower, and then you can easily add us to your reader group.   We live in interesting times, like it or not.

steveo, out

My favorite indicator ratio charts DWC/GLD and ES

My favorite indicators, DWC/GLD (Total Market / Gold Price), and EEM / SPY (Emerging Markets / S&P 500 ETF)

If you like this kind of original thinking, sign up as a follower, easy to do on the right hand side tool bar.  And that makes it easy to put Hawaii Trading on your reading list.  We know more than pineapples.



Total Market to Gold Ratio, and Poll Results ---(Gold or USD as a 5 year bet)

Total Market to Gold Ratio, in a tight triangle.   5 Hits on the triangle, is a good predictor of a big breakout move.  Usually in the reverse direction the 5 was moving, in this case, down and out.

The Poll showed that most people would take gold over USD in a 5 year closed end bet.  I agree.

Just reading "Gold the Once and Future Money".   Good stuff.   By Wiley and Addison.   It's about more than just gold, 400 some pages about currency through history and a no-BS perspective about important events like Bretton Woods, and the Asian crisis in which economic hit men forced small governments to bankrupt their smaller and regional banks, allowing them to be bought on the cheap by the bigger and more connected players.   Hmmmm.....I guess you can pull that off in larger than "3rd world countries" too.



Total Market to Gold Ratio, in a tight triangle.   5 Hits on the triangle, is a good predictor of a big breakout move.  Usually in the reverse direction the 5 was moving, in this case, down and out.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

PRS Guitars 133% Channels for Dummies

Below is from PRS.   I was supposed to do a quasi-guest post a month or so back....sometimes these things just fall under the bus....not thrown, shaken, not stirred.

PRSGuitars wrote, in response to steveo77:

How to draw 133s in TOScharts...
-- draw any channel anywhere -- this will become your default channel
-- right click on the channel and select 'edit properties'
-- under the sub-area (lower part of the window) 'edit curves' click 'add curve'
-- the new curve has a default value of '0', so, change that to be 1.33333
-- (suit your own preference) change the color and style of the 1.333 line (I use dotted yellow) so it's distinct
-- if you so desire, add a 'lower/underside 133% extension' by repeating these steps but adding a 2nd curve and entering '-0.33333' for the value of the 2nd curve.
-- make sure both curves are unchecked (for 'hidden')... this way both 133s show up WHENEVER YOU DRAW ANY CHANNEL! Already there for you.
-- CRUCIAL STEP -- click 'save as default' in the lower left corner of the properties window... thus your new 133s are solidified on all new channels
-- if you want to hide any 133s, go to 'edit properties' and check the hidden box (useful if charts get too cluttered)
-- if you don't want this as a default, duh, just don't check 'save as default'... just add them at your discretion to channels via the edit properties window.

Even the whales are going wild, and I don't mean Market Makers!

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20100224/D9E2PJD01.html

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

New Buzz Words - Annuitization (Tin Foil Hat Series), And Bank Update

Whenever there is a new buzzword being trotted out among the financial world -- you can pretty much rest assured that it is with some new type of scam, deception, unjust transfer of wealth.

Just look for the new buzzwords, like Annuitization.


http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/pensioners-get-ready-to-be-hosed.html

We were bringing up the idea of Government effectively seizing your 401K to "protect you from yourself" and filling them full of treasuries, since no one else would buy that debt.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/treasury-soliciting-your-feedback-regarding-proposed-annuitization-401k


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1830-401kIRA-Screw-Job-Coming.html


http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=125149

Bank Update


The fourth quarter 2009 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (QBP) is now available online.

http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/index.asp 
Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported an aggregate profit of $914 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, a $38.7 billion improvement from the $37.8 billion net loss the industry sustained in the fourth quarter of 2008, but still well below historical norms for quarterly profits. More than half of all institutions (50.3 percent) reported year-over-year improvements in their quarterly net income. Almost one-third of all institutions (32.7 percent) reported net losses for the quarter, compared to 34.6 percent a year earlier. For the full-year, banks reported net income totaling $12.5 billion—up from $4.5 billion in 2008.
The QBP provides the earliest comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions. This report card on industry status and performance includes written analyses, graphs and statistical tables. In addition to the QBP, you may be interested in these other related products that have been updated to reflect this quarter’s data:

  • Call and Thrift Financial Reports
  • Complete bank Call Reports and savings institution Thrift Financial Reports, including detailed balance sheets and income statements.
  • Institution Directory
  • Comprehensive financial and demographic data for individual FDIC-insured institutions.
  • Statistics on Depository Institutions
  • Financial analysis tool that provides custom peer group analysis and data download capability.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

What a great way to look back in history

http://www.answers.com/topic/1942

I did a post a while back on the 1942 "single bottom" in the stock market.   The link above is a great way to look back in history, type in any year you are interested in.


http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/06/soltice-is-today-armistice-tomorrow.html

1984 - A great book

I first read the book 1984 in 1977.

As a school boy, I was curious whether these things would come to pass.   1984 came, and it was not even close to the books predictions/theories.

2009 /2010 has come and some of the analogies are striking / shocking.
 A reader commented via email----


"So they pass bills to address every problem/crisis that comes up and labels them 'appropriately'.

Patriot Act, Financial Reform Bill, Worker Protection Act of 2006, and so on. "
 
 
If you haven't read 1984, put on your tin-foil hat and read it!

Homegrown Terrorists flying planes into Gubbermint buildings -- Time's they are a changin' -- The elimination of the rule of law, intervention in numerous aspects of a formerly free marketplace, yes this is all "Change that we can believe in"

Similar Candles says this market goes up, and can Railroads Talk?

 


Great eye by Carlos

Railroads are a good indicator of economic health.  Read this article by the Association of American Railroads.
http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0Bw-I-TTWWy6JOTc5MTU5NzMtYzY2ZS00M2VkLWEzYTAtMjI3Yjg1ZDYxZGM2&hl=en

Chart of Charts -- Near Term Bullish