Friday, September 10, 2010

Unions, great stuff in the 1940's

Doctor Copper -- Kidnapped! And Deep Water Horizon Bank Closed

The local thievery crews on Oahu are at it again, with copper near or at a peak, IMHO,

Before the "bust" thieves were stealing live copper wires, miles at a time.   Some $400,000 of material cost only, probably a total re-installed, and investigated cost of $4,000,000 by the time you add in the bureaucrats to deal with the issue.

Doctor Copper has been kidnapped.

And see this FDIC link, Deepwater Horizon Bank is Closed (it's a half joke, which is better than the whole financial system which is a full joke).
Have a nice weekend.

Boatload O'Charts

Enjoy, Sign up as a follower.   The new moon is acting, the prior ratio chart extreme values have pretty much clocked out although a day or three more of Frog Boil could certainly occur.

Black swan are delivered by cruise missile on the weekends and holidays.  

I rarely do the XLF chart, but first time I put the PRS 133 on it and it looks bearish.

I think HBB will continue to move money around, ramping particular issues, hitting short stops, and then after enough bears are just ready to "wait this one out" a few near limit down days in a row, maybe 3 of a 5 day week.  

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Thursday Thoughts

Look at a weekly AUD/USD pair and it could be that AUD did on a small scale what it did on a big scale in 2009, ran up alot like a 78 Fibo against a fast drop.   Might be some more, I closed out my short term shorts on ES with a few percent account profit, not bad.  

Still market seems "boring", going to catch people off guard methinks.

Cable took a swat down from the PRS 133, that is significant.

Think of how the Euro debt problems were so promptly and prominently displayed on mass media on Monday morning.

Then think what happened, USD down....other stuff up.   Also this is "Free Week" for Elliot Wave Europe.   What a confluence of mis-information.   Not saying that EWI is misinformation, but saying adding their bearish Euro voice to this mix was apropos to a ramp job....ramp into the new moon. 

Also my favorite indicators predicted a ramp for 4 to 6 days.   See post from last Sunday.  I took a short position today in ES, based on short term Fib and VWAP and Cable.    It moved quickly into the money so I will set my stop at break even and hope for the best.

You can't time the market, and you can't call the top.....classic wisdom is meant to mislead.

Usually moves on the moon occur a day or 3 after the new or full moon.   Last year, it was a powerful trend, until it ended and those betting with "willpower" were taken to the woodshed.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Suing Hitler, will it work?

This is big because it portrays something bigger.  

Can Governments who default on debt on bond be later sued to pay those debts?

Governments don't really want to hyperinflate to effectively default on the debt, because that will hurt their bankster buddies.   It would be far cleaner to just default after a while.,1518,716244,00.html


Tuesday, September 7, 2010

CPCI to Da Moon

I stole this from Pattern Profits, who is really working hard and posting boatloads of actionable charts often.

CPCI hit a 3 year high today, spiking like a Bernanke Ramp Job.

My comment on Pattern Profits site.
CPCI usually used as contrarian,
I usually like to use a MA on it though.  
But this one spike is wildly out of the park.  
Maybe Goldman bought 10000000 puts and then they plan on pulling all their and their clients bids, dropping the market?  who knows.   Holding QID but not too thrilled, although up 1.5% today.

VIX Chart - from Breakpointtrades

I have some links to Breakpoint trades on the left, please check them out.  Here is a VIX chart from them.

1111 Posts and the Non-Holy Grail --FX

Quick thought--

Now that everyone and his brother are following currencies, in lieu of, or in indicator of Us equiteis....well my thoughts are that that correlation will change.  

Just saying, won't happen overnight, but big divergences are what to watch for.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Holy Grail Part 2 VIX/VXN volatility ratio and DWC/GLD

We just had a gap down on the VIX/VXN.   AUD/USD is in a rising wedge and could break down, dragging SPX with it.    Not much reason to have longs here.

AUD USD 5 hits on the rising wedge/triangle

This looks really bearish to US equities to me.

HBB plays games on the weekend, and that is when Black Swans are delivered, on a cruise missile when you least expect it.

Consider that something like a Dubai notice of "restructuring", i.e. DEFAULT, or Greece shenanigans, or some country that hasn't even hit the radar screen, could play out.   

AUD/USD has been the best correlating pair to SPX of late.  Long's are closed, Short hedges no longer exist, so basically fully short except for some commodity stocks on long term horizons (hopefully not deep water so...)

DWC / DIA Yes there is a Holy Grail

Lower Chart is DWC /DIA, Popping the 2 BB is what I look for.    When it pops up and then pops down (pop down indicates a retail emotional extreme, retail watches and talks about the Dow), then there can be 3 to 5 days of meandering around "Frog Boiling Up" to waterboard the bears, then a drop.

Fear Factor

I closed my longs based on --- well, making a boatload of money, and this Fear Factor chart that implies that Fear  will increase (that mean Fear Factor goes downward in number.      There certainly could be one more push up to pop the Bollinger Band and further exhaust the bears.

Rant on Kool-Aid

It's almost downright comical how there are very few people that respects Mr. Market! Instead, they cling to fantasizing about P3 and drink all of the Elliott Wave "Kool-Aid" that they can get their hands on . . . They're never wrong. It's Mr. Market that is WRONG and they'll come up with tons of "conspiracy" theories to try and blame their trading losses on someone else. That is the mark of a LOSER, not a winner. Anyone that has half a clue was fully aware that Investor's Intelligence sentiment showed less than 30% bulls. They also were aware that the Rydex/SGI Advisor Confidence Index which tracks investment advisor pscyhology was at a 16-month low in August. Bloomberg News also reported last week that the number of "Buy" ratings by brokerage analysts had reached a low not seen since 1997. Anyone that continued to short this market and play their convoluted "the decline from the 1129 SPX high was impulsive and showed a 5-wave decline" simply drank too much Prechter "Kool-Aid". Funny how Glenn Neely actually had the "count" correct for a change, but that's a whole nother issue. There are plenty of money making opportunities in this market. One did not have to be an EWave guru or rocket scientist to figure out that a successful re-test of 1040 SPX would generate a launching pad for a significant rally. But there seems to be an awful lot of bloggers out there in E-Wave Land that only "see" what they want to "see" instead of respecting what Mr. Market is actually telling them. Good Luck to All.

steveo here----

Well I played that bounce out of 1040ish, but it could have just as easily broken down and became a rout...the more times support is tested, the greater the fall will be when it breaks.   But I agree that as you say a success retest of support was a pretty good indicator of more upside. 

Most times, Mr. Market has multiple messages, often conflicting with each other.  In particular this year, it has been very tricky with bull and bear cases being presented at the same time and with the same technical compellingness.

Also, there have in the past, been extended declines AFTER bearish sentiment is already high.    Just because this POS joke of a market has alot of believers that it is way overvalued, does not mean that it is not overvalued.  

Also, I find it funny that EWI, who claim to be highly technical traders, are actually excellent fundamentalists.   And if you watch their tracks closely, you can see they are playing the Astro and time based theories.   Fundamentals will eventually win out, but it is easy to go broke in the meantime if you cling to that Kool-Aid and it is wrong!!!  And if Helicopter Ben has his way with the currency, we could see the fundamentals play out, and stocks become worth 35% of what they are now....but selling for the same dollar number as now.   OK Rant over!