Saturday, December 26, 2009

Volcker Interview

No doubt, Mr. Obama has a gift, the gift of gab.   But listening to the same old, old school corruption chearleaders is not going to get the job done, no matter how eloquently that non-sense is phrased.

Volcker is not in that old school corruption camp, he forced the US to take it's medicine and we became healthier by that.

SPIEGEL: As chairman of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, you advise President Barack Obama on how to prevent such a recurrence. Is he following your guidance?

Volcker: We have various working groups that work on and make recommendations on particular problems like retirement programs and social security. We made some recommendations on financial reforms, which were not accepted, but that is part of the game. The president is more eloquent than I can be on these issues. Getting it done as compared to talking about it is a problem, but we have some suggestions along that line.,1518,666757,00.html

Chart of Charts and "Still All In" commentary

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I remember 1999, everyone was into stocks, it was normal cocktail party conversation, then the crash.  I was busy with work, and basically didn't see the benefit  of continuing to follow stocks, a combination of disgust and disinterest, which worked well until 2002/2003 bottom at which time it would have be great to have someone call and say....psst, by the way, market is heading back up.  But I really didn't pay it any mind until around 2004 seeing the obvious housing bubble.  I had one property go up 225% in less than 2 years....absurd, but enjoyable.

So here's the point:  This time the "crash" did not scare 80% of the traders from the market.   People in normal walks of life with "real jobs" still bring the subject of trading up to me, unsolicited.  Many I can't imagine as being traders.   Volume is falling off a bit, but still very strong.

Until a level of disgust is reached, this market will not "be over".  In fact why it will be different this time (well there are maybe 20 good reasons) is that people have now strongly been taught to buy and hold.  This may result in less panic selling.  But it can also result in "retail" holding on as the SPX blasts past 600, 400, 300....

Pretcher's "calls" are usually gamed heavily by HBB, but they come true after 4 to 8 weeks.   This time HBB is keeping the heat on....stealing more bear money and transferring more "assets" to unsuspecting retirement pension funds and the like.   But if Pretcher's call come through, there may be no place left to hide.  It won't matter if you are trading between asset classes, they will all be crushed except maybe Gold.

Chart of Charts
Not Much to say --- Tops can be a complicated affair.

Newt and /NKD


Sometimes These Things Take Longer Than You Think

We are living in a slow motion train wreck, with an occasional flash and bang.

Total credit just reached a peak in Summer 2009, although you would have thought that maybe that maximum credit level would have been in 2006 or so. 

"They" will keep trying to juice the market, get people to buy/consume, get people to take on debt, for as long as possible, since the "emporer has no clothes" will get downright ugly when this Ponzi scheme is shown in broad daylight for what it is.   And there will be "news" to account for the "turndown", to explain it. 

HELOC's are still over $1T, at 1.05T, down from 1.13T at their peak in 2007


Anything the Government tries to run is done poorly.  I think everyone knows this, am I wrong?  Having the Gov dip more strongly into Health Care and our bank accounts, will be a debacle.   I am flabbergasted that any Government official thinks that this would even be close to the "right time" to add this burden on to the people and the economy.  Maybe sign this petition.
And just an interesting observation, I am sure there are many reasons people sell houses, like needing the money, and Cher is selling her pad in Kona, Big Island.

In 1988, Kona was a smallish fishing town where you could go stay at Uncle Billy's Hotel for around $60.  You would probably go fishing (best Marlin fishing in the world), hiking, or maybe Scuba diving.  There were a few bars but the nightlife was weak at best.

Kona exploded, it became the hippest of the hip places to go build real mansions and McMansions.  I had one client who wanted energy efficiency for a "house" with a $16,000 per month electric bill.  It is a sign of the times.
And this is sad....Pineapple is dead in Hawaii, the last is gone.  We cannot "afford" to grow our own crops.  Probably the Mandatory Employer Provided Health Care that Hawaii ALREADY has, contributes to shipping those agricultural jobs to PI.  Actually I did the calc, and knowing health care costs about a minimum of $250 per employee (1 person covered, other family members add to this cost) per month, I figure this pineapple company paid direct costs of around $6M since 2002, in which they state losses of $115M since 2002.  

And all that land can now be used for "Development".  Yeah right.

On a happy note--another client is converting a 16 acre lot into Aquatonics which is a symbiotic mesh of Fish, Water, and Vegetables.  Of course there are water pumping, aeration, and other power demands that will be met with a large PV system.  The cost benefits of doing PV are amazing, with businesses reaping even greater benefits than residential. 

A $33,850 System ends up costing $1,697 to the user.   And that is ignoring any benefits that depreciation could have in reducing your business tax liability to the State.  State of Hawaii treats depreciation somewhat different than the Federal in some ways that I don't fully understand, but for the most part, the Fed Schedule C (Business Income or Loss) is reduced by the 4562 Depreciation and Section 179 Depreciation, and then the Fed Schedule C flows into the State Income Statement.

So if Hawaii effective blended tax rate is 8%, then 8% times $27,477 depreciation amount would be $2200.   So this system is effectively free, or even a negative cost to small businesses.  It looks like small businesses can have 30 years of energy independence for "free". 

And this PV system will produce $155,500 worth of electricity over 30 years, based on a 6% annual inflation rate.  Is this a no-brainer or what?

The only trick is having the wherewith-all of that $33,850 to start with.

And then the next trick is going from 16 acres of sustainable Aquatonics to 16,000 acres.  Now that would be a real difference in our ability to be sustainable.  Did you ever stop to think what the opposite of being sustainable is?

Friday, December 25, 2009

A Very Merry Christmas

A Very Merry Christmas to all, thanks for stopping in.

And in a rare turn of events, I decline to do even a partial rant.

But I will print what willthethrill had to say yesterday as a Comment on Hawaii Trading.  BTW, y'all can comment's free!

"I think the sell-off in Jan is as advertised as the Christmas rally if not more. I say we drop 2%+ first of next week to shake out all these late arriving bulls and punish those that covered yesterday and today. Shorting here was risky and I think those that did get rewarded. I think at this point a significant drop in the last few days of the year is the last thing anyone expects."

But for those who are wishing for a Bearry Christmas, please review this link to an October 24 prediction for the DWC Total Market.  And then look below for it's present condition, which is A=C

This may be a transition point for the Bears.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Merry Christmas, Total Market Turn Point

So my sitemter report says there are 60 people looking at these charts at this present time, and yet not a single comment....c'mon folks, drop a comment or two.

We first produced this chart several months back, no joke.  For the DWC Total Market, we are now exactly at A=C, and there are 3 other reasons that this is a logical stopping point, besides the horrific fundamentals.

Now here we are.  If you like this stuff, sign up as a follower and add this blog to your Google reader or other blog aggregator.

Monday, December 21, 2009

By "God Man Sacks" the Bears, I think I've got it...

We have pointed out here before, that there have been an exceptional number of gaps in the last 6 weeks or so. 

Here is the deal.

As HBB works so hard to dsitribute from it's strong hands to weak need to float the market at a high level to suck the highest money from those they have connived to sell to. 

However, in order to do this without supporting the market with it's own money, they simply tell a dozen high money traders that if they want their Christmas bonus that they need to work at night and jack up the futures on low volume. 

There have been 11 large gaps up on open since Novmeber, and 4 gaps down.   This uses the bear's money in short squeezes to juice the market.   This then convinces retail and "sold to" funds like Government employee fund and "higher education" funds to reinvest in the market.

HBB is taking trillions in profits in this maneuver (or perhaps I should say avoiding trillions in losses that they are passing off to others), don't fret about a few tens of billions in trading profits, there is much more going on here.  And it was totally predicted. 

Some chart I have been printing over the last few days.

State Cannot pay it's bills, Holding ON to Money, and COPPER Short

Get ready for more of this type of thing.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

NKD Futures on the Nikkei

The Nikkei is effectively uncorrelated to US markets at least over short durations.   By playing this one, you can remove the risk of playing "all one bet" such as being long dollar and short US equities.   The trading hours are different.  Gaps are frequent.  

Nikkei 225(Globex)/NKDH,M,U,Z/NKDZ7S-F 2:00am-3:15pm, 3:30pm-4:30pm

Job Loss Percentages and the Viral Obama Cabinet Lack of Experience

This chart is from calculatedrisk, good place to "over read" at.

The below chart "went viral" showing Obama had poor choices in his Cabinet appointments.  However, also review the link below, in which the author of the chart was interviewed and admits that he did have some facts wrong.

And finally, here is a link in which you can click on the Obama cabinet appointments and see more about them. 

BTW I can't remember hearing much discussion about Obama's middle name "Hussein", but maybe that's because I don't watch TV, at all, ZERO!  (Well maybe Saturday Night Live - since Satire is the only real news we have).   But doesn't that name bother anyone?  I guess for the "Bizarro World" that we are living in, that people can just shrug that one off.   After all...we want change that we can believe in, but you don't always get what you want.