Saturday, September 19, 2009

Index Charts

These index charts should be pretty self explanatory. Extremely bearish, but more upside is possible, actually even expected by reviewing my "Chart of Charts" on other post.

If you need help in interpretation, you may consider Tim Knight's book "Chart Your Way to Profits"

Chart of Charts

This doesn't look good for the bears, in the short term, the crossover says bullish is the way to be.

However, the 4 times flipping between weak bear and weak bull could imply a trend change. Continue picking your tickers. My portfolio which is 90% short, made money on Friday even though the indices were up slightly.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Don't Overcomplicate Things H&S Retrace and "Notes"

How many lines have been drawn on "logical turn points" for this rally". And how many have just been laughed at as the market slashes through them.

In March, could any Bear picture a retrace to the Neckline on a major inde? I love those color highlight boxes in the TOS platform, they help define regions.

The dollar is rallying (a little). UUP is not doing much. That's a good ticker to keep track of the ol' buck with. It's a double long fund that tracks the dollar.

Finviz Rocks. They inspire me to do yet another rendition of my Chart of Chart with the newly created custom heatmap. This was signalling nuetral with hint of bear last week, so let's see what the new signals are. I am going to try to produce this Friday night so y'all can digest it over the weekend.

And keep in mind, all these "investments", and this "money" and "wealth" is for the most past...just paper. The best of them are "backed by the full faith of the US Government". Ouch, I think I will fund my Goldmoney account today. We did enough due diligence, they look OK.

But we all have been taught that "Head and Shoulders" means nothing. After all the great H&S got blown up, and TA is dead. TA measures the vast sum of human emotions, and well as MM manipulation. Those things haven't changed. Pictures will still get painted on the tape.

I expect one more real good blow off bottom on the dollar, to get the max people on the wrong side of the trade on equities and currencies. And just saying...but some type of event that creates fear, COULD be the real impetus for this direction change.

I will also be repositioning from interest bearing cash accounts (very weak interest) into tradable accounts, today.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

The Dancing Bull - A tribute

I saw this 2006 Zinfandel marked down 30% and thought it was to be a beautiful picture. The imagery of "The Bull" with a nice background indicating the stability of the advancing "bull" was thought to be a nice picture. You decide.

Spy plane view from 10000 feet

WAT is that? A Short

WAT has been very strong of late, and it just pushed up to it's "Main 50 Fib".

Let's call that a naming convention. If I say Main *** Fib, I mean from the big peak (usually late 2007) to the big deep (usually March 2009).

I bought puts on this one.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Monday, September 14, 2009

Fibonacci "Pushes" third times the charm!

I have been watching this for some time, and looking at the decreasing strength of each push upward. Let's use the Russell.

Take IWM for example, the push lasted from 34.03 to 51.22, = 17.18

61.8% of 17.18 ===10.61

The bottom of the second push was 47.27, add 10.61, and you get 57.88

Check out the peak on August 8, peak of the second push, 57.8.

Now the third push--started at 55.3, now at 60.08

For consistency, lets use the same Fibonacci number, 61.8 percent of the second push (call it 10.61) is 6.55

Add 6.55 to 55.3 and you get 61.85 on IWM.

Right now it is 60.05---So that is almost a perfect 3% increase from here. There is a beauty in symmetry to nature. There may not be a beauty in symmetry to manipulated markets, and yes they are always manipulated as much as they can get away with, but this time around that level of "get away with" is higher.

I do not think we will go higher than 3% more from here, maybe 4%, but there is a cap. Beyond 4% and I will have to stop "capitulating" and really capitulate.

Euro short entry

Bullish percent finding new highs

Be afraid of the "Thin Zone"

This is a lightly traded area on the way down, between 1050 and 1120.

Be afraid, be very afraid. My thoughts are the MM's push the market into this zone for a final shake the last bear out of the tree. Most people think bears are capitulating today....hehe, got a secret.

But seriously at some point, you do need to say enough is enough or the margin clerk may make the decision for you, and if you ever met the margin clerk you might as well be shaking hands with the Grim reaper, because they are some roughshod hands. They will probably sell off your favorite asset at the worst possible time.

Agreed, I don't know all the psychology but it seems like after a fall, people hang on to their stock (buy and hold brainwashing which does sometimes work), but then when they get back "to even" and don't have to take the ego-lashing of taking a loss, that they are happy to sell at that time. That put downward pressure on prices.

But when there is no one in the thin zone...this type of effect is not present. So prices could run quick. My guess is the MM push the market up quickly and then with retail sales, it will be a sell the news event.

There may be more ramifications than my simple example, which I think is a powerful one.

EUr and AUD against the dollar still running up with Divergence

Black Swan on the Euro

Sunday, September 13, 2009

FX thoughts, H&S on GBY/USD

I thought that a final "blowoff top" to discourage any dollar bulls would be needed/used before a turn on the dollar and the equities market. This may have been the one.


Pole Vault Over Apex, aka Butchers Knife

Chart of Charts

Please see earlier Chart of Charts for more explanation, although a close inspection of the chart, interactions, and notes should suffice.