And Finally!!! Some real proof that this "Bull Market" is dead---humour
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/35271015/ns/sports-other_sports/
And Speaking of Commodities, Doctor Copper is prognosticating the market is sick.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Ever trade commodities? Best if you know Contango and Backwardation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JQthSNjskE
And Finally!!! Some real proof that this "Bull Market" is dead---humour
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/35271015/ns/sports-other_sports/
And Speaking of Commodities, Doctor Copper is prognosticating the market is sick.
And Finally!!! Some real proof that this "Bull Market" is dead---humour
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/35271015/ns/sports-other_sports/
And Speaking of Commodities, Doctor Copper is prognosticating the market is sick.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Mr. Topstep -- More "street" knowledge from the floor.
Anyone like the TopStep?
Anyone like Cramer? He says the Consumer is strong....people have this big rumor that the consumer is weak...because the consumer is weak. Its a lie.......
I guess he probably doesn't go to "confession"
Research assistant?
I am wondering if there is anyone out there who wants to help with some original research.
Specifically I am thinking about my mutual fund money flow chart, from ISI data.
If anyone interested...now that the chart is "made" an update takes maybe 20 to 30 minutes....because the way the data is presented by ISI, and the way the chart uses it are quite different formats.
Maybe an Excel guru could find a better way to parse the data...like a second worksheet that extracts it from the origina data and rearranges the columns and formulas, the the chart builds itself off of that...hmmm....thats a no brainer actually.
Example of the money flow chart.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/money-flows-from-mutual-funds.html
Specifically I am thinking about my mutual fund money flow chart, from ISI data.
If anyone interested...now that the chart is "made" an update takes maybe 20 to 30 minutes....because the way the data is presented by ISI, and the way the chart uses it are quite different formats.
Maybe an Excel guru could find a better way to parse the data...like a second worksheet that extracts it from the origina data and rearranges the columns and formulas, the the chart builds itself off of that...hmmm....thats a no brainer actually.
Example of the money flow chart.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/money-flows-from-mutual-funds.html
The MM's / HBB aren't going to make it easy to bank coin, FF chart, TBT
Expecting a snapback rally, along with media hype on "how resilient this market is". Timing is very important in the market, and the weekends are important time. Time for media spin, barbeque conversations, and a chance for the wise to get out hiking to a waterfall and regain the view from 20,000 feet.
Media spinning hard already....see I told you to buy the dip....trade the dip, maybe, buy the dip....well I think they call that a dip-shit.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704533204575046842622328102.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_markets
The FF almost broke the lower trend line today.
I had heavy heavy FAZ and QID from Thursday....and got my stops perfectly hit at the open (which I couldn't attend this morning -- 4:30AM in Hawaii). VERY VERY annoying.
On Chart attached is the "Fear Factor" and also some index channels, analysis, and upside targets I am watching.
I left Friday with kayak full of UWM (ultra long Russell) on the books. Definitely a gamble. Remember in 2007 2008---weekends were the breeding ground for amazing Gov announcements that rallied the markets. But it could go either way, say like an announcement to missile Iran.
More to come on the weekend. Hopefully I can get to Chart of Charts, and maybe even the mutual fund money flows from ISI.
Also a look at EEM, FSLR, CMG, and some of my other favorite poster children of charts.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Father of all Indicator Graphic Charts -- Entertainment
As a spoof to TransworldDepravity, I used his charts and then added some WAVES of all sorts. Hope you like it, drop a comment if you do.
OMG, Cramer says "Look for Bargain Longs" -- Run for the hills
I rarely read Cramer. He is damaging. He is a tool of HBB intended to make Joe Six pack "street professionals" and give them the confidence to chunk down their hard earned cash.
His calls have been awful. I think intentionally timed to fleece the public. It is a charade, and someday it may be investigated as a crime. Right now, we all know, and HBB has know for many years, there is no prosecution coming of the big boyz. That sentiment may change.
Hey, only one person liked my wave pictures....ouch, that took like 45 minutes! I am hurt. Just kidding.
But after reading the Cramer below....my resolve to add new shorts is strong, holding quite a bit of QID, and FAZ overnight. Japan is off to a solid 1.5% down, and the US does NOT follow Japan, but does not move opposite of Japan either. Japan down strong is not a bad sign for holding shorts.
Employment numbers are rumored to be -800,000 after some of the previous lies are backpedaled on. This is the reality.
Trim-tabs make abundantly clear that while gov claiming employment to be steady around 10%, income tax revenues are steadily and significantly decreasing. And that's all I got to say about that.
Here to Cramer...the friend of the common man. I was at a clients house 2 weeks ago, and the wife had 2 financial sales people there, stated, dead pan....why not put some money to work in the stock market, everything is "on sale".
His calls have been awful. I think intentionally timed to fleece the public. It is a charade, and someday it may be investigated as a crime. Right now, we all know, and HBB has know for many years, there is no prosecution coming of the big boyz. That sentiment may change.
Hey, only one person liked my wave pictures....ouch, that took like 45 minutes! I am hurt. Just kidding.
But after reading the Cramer below....my resolve to add new shorts is strong, holding quite a bit of QID, and FAZ overnight. Japan is off to a solid 1.5% down, and the US does NOT follow Japan, but does not move opposite of Japan either. Japan down strong is not a bad sign for holding shorts.
Employment numbers are rumored to be -800,000 after some of the previous lies are backpedaled on. This is the reality.
Trim-tabs make abundantly clear that while gov claiming employment to be steady around 10%, income tax revenues are steadily and significantly decreasing. And that's all I got to say about that.
Here to Cramer...the friend of the common man. I was at a clients house 2 weeks ago, and the wife had 2 financial sales people there, stated, dead pan....why not put some money to work in the stock market, everything is "on sale".
Dow Gold and PE per Darby
dnarby has been posting good stuff at HawaiiTrading
Here is an interesting link. Sometimes long term charts are so informing. We get all caught up withthe latest zig zag on a sub minuette Elliot wave and forget the big picture.
Admittedly though, after fundamentals have been so wrong for so wrong, it's tough to place a high leverage bet based on "what should be". Trying to catch ever peak and valley, sometimes referred to as "getting cute" is also a tough game, as the market is tricky...and this game is for all the money in the world. HBB is running this game, and they are highly motivated, they bought the political and media systems in order to line their pockets.
People say the "banks don't get it", but that is not really fair....they took all the money, they "got it". They might not realize the extent of backlash that is possible, but maybe the sheeple won't raise their voices as long as they have their programmed media and an Old English 800 Malt Liquor....(cheap potent booze is becoming more popular these days). Chart is from dnarby.
This long term chart of the Dow/Gold is also interesting.
Look at the latt 80's after an oil crisis, which this then launched into a bank crises.....hmmmm....sounds familiar. high energy costs tend to take the wind out of the sails of the economy....except when there is easy money everywhere...then the cranked up economy can keep going, even for years, in the face of absurd fundamentals, which is what happened.
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm
Check out dnarby and his blog "TheTail Does Not Wag the Dog". Yeah...and Emerging Market will support the US through trouble...(thats a joke...)
http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/
Here is an interesting link. Sometimes long term charts are so informing. We get all caught up withthe latest zig zag on a sub minuette Elliot wave and forget the big picture.
Admittedly though, after fundamentals have been so wrong for so wrong, it's tough to place a high leverage bet based on "what should be". Trying to catch ever peak and valley, sometimes referred to as "getting cute" is also a tough game, as the market is tricky...and this game is for all the money in the world. HBB is running this game, and they are highly motivated, they bought the political and media systems in order to line their pockets.
People say the "banks don't get it", but that is not really fair....they took all the money, they "got it". They might not realize the extent of backlash that is possible, but maybe the sheeple won't raise their voices as long as they have their programmed media and an Old English 800 Malt Liquor....(cheap potent booze is becoming more popular these days). Chart is from dnarby.
This long term chart of the Dow/Gold is also interesting.
Look at the latt 80's after an oil crisis, which this then launched into a bank crises.....hmmmm....sounds familiar. high energy costs tend to take the wind out of the sails of the economy....except when there is easy money everywhere...then the cranked up economy can keep going, even for years, in the face of absurd fundamentals, which is what happened.
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm
Check out dnarby and his blog "TheTail Does Not Wag the Dog". Yeah...and Emerging Market will support the US through trouble...(thats a joke...)
http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Waves! 1 to 5
I find it curious that so many people expect an imminent drop into Primary 3....the wave that erases centuries of irrational exuberance. And that this here, right now, this week, is the start of that....the end of 2. It would look like this.
Maybe this picture is "true".
However, maybe we need ought to consider that the administration may different plans....another round of punch...
Maybe this represents better where we are and what we got coming.
Hope you like the graphics, please drop a comment if you do. And an opinion!
In a large sense we are engaged right now in a struggle that is far more fiercely contested than any game. It is a struggle for the hearts, for the minds, and for the souls of all of us, and it is a game in which there are no spectators, only players..... The test of this century will be whether man mistakes the growth of wealth and power with the growth of spirit and character.
~ Vince Lombardi (1913 - 1970).
Maybe this picture is "true".
However, maybe we need ought to consider that the administration may different plans....another round of punch...
Maybe this represents better where we are and what we got coming.
Hope you like the graphics, please drop a comment if you do. And an opinion!
In a large sense we are engaged right now in a struggle that is far more fiercely contested than any game. It is a struggle for the hearts, for the minds, and for the souls of all of us, and it is a game in which there are no spectators, only players..... The test of this century will be whether man mistakes the growth of wealth and power with the growth of spirit and character.
~ Vince Lombardi (1913 - 1970).
How big was the Stimulus that jacked up the GDP by $100B approx
My thoughts have always been a stimulus in the range of $13T for the US. Just a guess, gut feeling.
We demonstrated quite clearly how just he currency swap issue was over $560B.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/deception-dont-be-deceived-by-what-is.html
The audacity of the misinformation, and now it seems that the goal is to help small business by giving it $30B in loans...almost sounds like a classic ECH--Economic Hit Man routine that Cheney was doing 30 years ago.
Saddle them with debt, then take them over or better yet....let them think they are free, but control them.
This video is even more extreme than my gut meanderings.
Comments appreciated.
Fear Factor...Honestly....I don't think this is a bear flag....I think a good week of whoopin' up on the administrations "stock market" got some "RAMP" money flowing again.
So happy I flattened all my shorts last Friday (except some long term SPY puts)
Late night thoughts....so ---emerging markets, esp China are going to "save us". Think about what happens when (if) China and other EM's stop buying US products and products sold by US based conglomerates in their own and neighboring countries.
Just saying, think about it. Don't feed on the standard bullshit...humans are naturally bullish....that doesn't mean they are right in this case.
We demonstrated quite clearly how just he currency swap issue was over $560B.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/deception-dont-be-deceived-by-what-is.html
The audacity of the misinformation, and now it seems that the goal is to help small business by giving it $30B in loans...almost sounds like a classic ECH--Economic Hit Man routine that Cheney was doing 30 years ago.
Saddle them with debt, then take them over or better yet....let them think they are free, but control them.
This video is even more extreme than my gut meanderings.
Comments appreciated.
Fear Factor...Honestly....I don't think this is a bear flag....I think a good week of whoopin' up on the administrations "stock market" got some "RAMP" money flowing again.
So happy I flattened all my shorts last Friday (except some long term SPY puts)
Late night thoughts....so ---emerging markets, esp China are going to "save us". Think about what happens when (if) China and other EM's stop buying US products and products sold by US based conglomerates in their own and neighboring countries.
Just saying, think about it. Don't feed on the standard bullshit...humans are naturally bullish....that doesn't mean they are right in this case.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
HCB per Springheel Jack Idea -- a Dandy Short--
And TBT is actually a fine way to play Bond Prices going down. It is 2X so expect some gaming.
Read This Rant -- From OilPrice
http://www.oilprice.com/article-10-geopolitical-predictions-for-2010--short-term-strategic-outlook.html
Best rant around. Nothing I can disagree with, some things I do not have knowledge of.
Best rant around. Nothing I can disagree with, some things I do not have knowledge of.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Bonds JNK LQD
JNK broke a bear flag, like a base jumper who got a small rope that snagged on the edge and he is hanging precariously. Unfortunately for Junk Bonds, there is no parachute, the base jumper is in a much better situation.
LQD was down more today...I guess people want to get away from highly quality corporate bonds....who need those when you need yield.
I cannot short JNK on TOS or on Etrade. Anyone know where JNK can be shorted.
The options look pretty illiquid and with large spreads.
LQD was down more today...I guess people want to get away from highly quality corporate bonds....who need those when you need yield.
I cannot short JNK on TOS or on Etrade. Anyone know where JNK can be shorted.
The options look pretty illiquid and with large spreads.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Some Ultrashort ETFs, possible to Short Emerging markets
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