Saturday, January 1, 2011

Birds, KGB and Police

We will be back to the charts in 2011, for now, check these out

Weird, 1000 dead bird falling out of sky, one place one time.
Sure hail could do it, but there wasn't bad weather present.    Just weird.   "Stress event" is being peddled, like that is an "answer".

Hawaii police acting like KGB, read both articles.

Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy New Year!

Thanks for stopping in.  No rant today.   No charts.

Just a big

Happy New Year!!!

Thursday, December 30, 2010


OK so I sold my QID a few days ago
Went long ES yesterday (and stopped for a breakeven)

Jokingly, those are bearish signs.

No time to chart

BUT ES backtested and rejected it's PRS177

EUR/USD backtested and rejected on its PRS 100

DX just looks like a blatant shake out move, DX is the USD futures.  

Took some futures shorts and will stop tightly and move stop to breakeven if I get even 3 points of move my way.   That causes lots of whipsaw, but that is the way it is.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bought the Dip, Fear Factor, and The PM Exuberance Index

I bought the dip on the PRS on ES.

A break of this PRS will be very bearish, and in this manipulated market, of course the HBB guys are using State Pension funds to keep buying the market up.    Everyone wants an up market, except reality and the Piper who will some day collect his due.

For now, bought the dip, but will probably close for a measley couple hundred dollar run.   Playing very small, 1 contract.  

Bought DNN yesterday at 3.29, it is moving nicely upward.

I don't want to hold too many positions over the New Years, since that complicates the P&L tax filings by having to keep track of crossover positions.    And the gains and losses and figuring the basis for the purchase IS NOT usually computer generated.   Esp. with options, and futures, every trading service tracks them differently and ultimately the ball is left 100% in your hands to reconcile everything.

Next year, apparently, the brokers are going to be required to keep track of the basis and report it to the Fed Gov.    Keep in mind, that doesn't mean they will necessarily report it to you in same or usable fashion, although  I suspect that they would.   However, past history shows that the brokers never really cared much about your tax filing.

PMI-E is showing a blow off shooting star type "top" far outside the Bollinger Band, this should signal a drop on precious metals.   Other instances have been shown a drop after the BB was popped

Humans operate as "a pack" a Lesson in Global Pyschology

Humans operate as a Pack, or a herd some may say.

There is a mass global psychology, kind of like the cooperation in a bee hive.   Although I think that perhaps bees are a little better behaved.

Humans are complex, it is not easy to be able to ponder the mysteries of the universe, dive into our own DNA and see things that can't be seen, and yet be chock full of all of the emotions, fears, greed and a host of animalistic instincts, all while making sure to convince our own ego that we are "good people".

Those who are studying pyschology might agree this is a good example of "Pack behavior", Brett Farve who used to play for the Pack, by the way, was fined $50,000 by a sports commission for alleged sexual harassment.    This is an example of how important Packs are to us.   This was a legal matter of supposed sexual harassment.   At the very least a civil matter.

Why does society allow sports authorities to "take care of their own".    Simple, because sports teams are our packs, and any pyschologist will tell you that packs are VERY important to human beings.   It really makes no other sense, and flies in the face of all Federal and State laws, and the Constitution.

It is funny how humans go so far out of the way to distance themselves from other animals, at least in their own minds.

Wait-- THIS IS A TRADING BLOG--what the heck are you talking about steveo!!  ??

If the answer to that is not obvious to you after some more thought, then nothing I say could possibly make you see the relevance.   If that is the case, you are blocking the truth from yourself in a way.

Comments?  C'mon


Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Bear Flag or Support Zone

The PRS 177 has been one of the strongest things that "still works" as the HAL 20000's take over the trading world.  

Look at the OTIS GAP on the dollar yesterday.    Huh?   People going to flock into Yuan and throw the dollar under the bus?    Maybe only as a shake out prior to a dollar run up.

The more things change the more they stay the same.    With a few geopolitical tensions and currency wars, it seems obvious to me that a flight to big daddy Dollar will occur.     Look at today's move up, correcting the gap down.   OTIS, but it is the market we are given, you choose to participate or not.

Check DNN for a breakout.

Sure it's tough to buy the dollar after this impulsive move up.....that is a tough trade to take, think about it.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Slow week -- ONE:VIX

This is likely to be a slow week in the markets.

Unless I see something big coming up, I will resume posting next year.

Consider 2X USD bull fund, I want to buy one that trades end of day only.

Happy New Year, this market doesn't need me right now, and it will still be there when I come back, it will be going up and down. 


One chart from Darell, this is simply Vix inverted i.e. 1/Vix

Reversal point or is this a "bullish" cup and handle?   Anything is possible in this new world that we live in.

Check the MACD, bullish, but it tanked in the past while bullish looking MACD.   I don't like the standard setttings on MACD, they are too popular, too gamed.

Sunday, December 26, 2010


EEM/SPY has just snook down.  Sign that risk trade is off.

Precious Metal Exuberance Index (my own creation of course)

Very toppy, but no basis to short.

15 of 16 indicators on Breakpoint Trades on intermediate and long term show bullish trend intact, strengthening.   


Cool link above to a pay site, posting their stuff a bit late but free.

One can see that in the past sentiment has been this bullish, and yet the indices slogged forward for months.

And a piece from Market Watch....the ten worst performances.   Seems strange those are the worst.
Martin Weiss’ Safe Money Report, Martin D. Weiss: -6.0%
Peter Eliades’ Stockmarket Cycles, Peter G. Eliades: -8.1%
TimingCube, F. Minssieux: -9.0%
Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor, Bernie Schaeffer: -11.0%
Crawford Perspectives, Arch Crawford: -12.4%
Brown’s Investment Signals Mid-Term Model, Stephen Brown: -12.7%
Sy Harding’s Street Smart Report, Sy Harding: -13.8%
China Stock Digest, James Trippon: -15.9%
Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, Paul Goodwin: -17.1%
Doug Fabian’s ETF Trader, Doug Fabian: -21.5%

Elliot Wave and CycleMan are not in here, although they have professed a "Deadly Bearish Big Picture" and that this is only a Bear Market Rally.
I am throwing in the towel, from now on I am only Bullish and will buy every dip.    NOT!

Boatload o' Charts

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Also, 3 DOWN on the LEFT, I added a sign-up by email, no one signed up yet except me, it works and alerts you of a new post..

I have a few indicators here.   The Fear Factor is showing a possible chopstick reversal. Fear Factor 2 is showing some similarity to past years.

My "Toy Index", Polaris, Harley, Winnebago is showing strong bullish-it sentiment.   Whooo Hooo let's party like it's 1999 again!   I don't see any immediate shorting opportunities on these charts, but they just show extreme exuberance.  See the charts.  Please drop a comment.