Thursday, September 16, 2010

Bullish! FEED with a nice breakout LONG! I'm in, and ROC 28

Went Long FEED, on this overbeaten stock. This was a trade watch list idea from BreakpointTrades. They pointed out a few others today that all broke nicely upwards.   They aren't free, unless you consider the profits from their trade ideas!

And this ROC28 indicator, is from Pattern Profits who has really ramped up their quantity and quality of posts.   They are on my reading list, and totally free.

Check them out.

Cable is not under the Bus, could be a breakout, Gold to tank?

Well what a tricky expiry week. Just meandering around.

Lower chart from a reader, Check the Slo Sto chart, perfect reversals. However, this goes against Cable, which say Cable up USD down, and USD down ought to mean gold up.

Maybe I'll just go back to putting "Bullish" in every post and comment, that will tank the markets!

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics and a cool video

Stole this video from "Trading with the Average Jay" who is on my blogroll.   It is from a guy running for office, and is amazing satire, summing up this joke of a political and financial system evolutionary disaster, in 73 seconds....c'mon take 73 seconds and you will laugh and cry.

Of course employment figures lies are planned well in advance.   Dabama's early program were all about "reporting" employment numbers.    As a small business owner, looking at some of the "reinvestment act" pork that was shuffled out to friends and family, core to the additional overhead burdens being put on business owners, was reporting of additional jobs created by the contracts.    It is almost like this was more important that the function of the contract or the end project.

And of the work I saw, you either had to dive on price to get scraps as a subcontractor, and/or you had to be large enough that you could throw 10 estimators at a Request for Proposal and come up with a bid in less than a week.   No joke...that is how much of that money was "awarded".   In other words....the freinds, family, and deep pocket contributors had copies of the RFPs weeks before they were released to the public, and small business was intentionally bypassed.

Now the big push is to get small business to take loans to survive this next phase of whatever is coming.....perfect plan.   In the old days, the US just enslaved third world countries with debt using advanced Economic Hit Man approaches (read the book).    This millenium, they decided to go directly after the real source of wealth, the US itself.   the ol' EHM routine, right at home.   Enslave with debt.

Fortunately except for a few vehicles I have no other debt and need no other debt.   But for many people they are being lead down that rosy path with ruby slippers......

Tin Foil FX

Well at least tin foil has a little more commodity value (hard asset) than Fiat Paper!  :)

This quote from

It is reported that the intervention may have exceeded 100 billion yen and was done unilaterally, however the exact numbers have not been released. We would expect to see further intervention as past Japan FX interventions have occurred over periods of time. The previous period of intervention saw the BOJ sell roughly 20.4 trillion yen in 2003 followed by about 14.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2004. Japanese officials stated that they would resume FX intervention during the NY hours if needed so be on the lookout for further near term yen weakness.

100 Billion yen is nothing, bear in mind that a Yen is approximatley a penny.   Now it varies, but the simple fact of the matter is you divide the Yen by 100 and get dollars.  

Wow---so the Japanese "eased" by 1B USD equivalent.    What is that?  about 2 hours of interest payment on the national debt?   Just saying, this is a joke, the big moves are a game. 

In the past years 2003, they eased by over 2000 times more.

This game is after all, for all the money in the world, and those that control the news, control it to vested interests.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Cable under the bus????

Cable backtested the PRS. The flash crash happened on a back test of the PRS, just saying it's expiry and the bears been burnt so far, now it's time to burn the bulls.

Short term short, again, well if support is thrown under the bus

Laying in wait is better than an overzealous top call....

And see chart below, wouldnt the QID holder wish that was QQQQ, but alas it is not.

however, it was a good short call by Breakpoint Trades....but notice the volume, often 250,000 daily so that is a bit spooky, 5 people holding 5000 shares would control 10% of the daily volume.

That was my comment the other day, these Breakpoint Trades guys come up with great ideas, but for the most part you need to watch them like a hawk.

AUD JPY recently the best correlator

Anyone have any ideas why AUD JPY would be the recent best correlator with SPY?

It just broke out and backtested, even though I closed longs around 1097 on the ES,  looks like I should have stayed in longer, but oh well....banked some profit without getting greedy.

BUT we are still near major resistance on the US indices, we could tank from here, a few people pointed out that we are wedging right into resistance.


Monday, September 13, 2010

Holy Grail redux, 3 Guest CHARTS!

The lower chart says Gold is going down.
The upper chart says VIX/GLD is going up.  This chart idea was submitted by a blog reader.

That means --- VIX is going way up....well at least in theory

And at he bottom,  nice chart with lots of relevant lines, submitted by another reader.   XAU, tracking precious metals miners.   Seems to follow the summation index (my lonely chart on this page)

And finally, at the far bottom, a real contrarian take on the USD, also by a guest.

Sunday, September 12, 2010


Even though correlations vary week by week, I think that Cable (the British Pound versus the USD) is important, as the two "white boy" countries are the imperialists of the last 2 centuries.   

UK looks like it will double dip before the US.

ES on PRS 100 (Code for Full Tilt Bear)

ES pegging the 100% PRS channel, good enough for me to take a short.   Not too crazy big, but the risk is limited, and the reward potentially large due ot expiry Monday, and Mass Global Pyschosis (MGP)

Frog Boil, Tasty if you catch it at the right time.

Last Sunday I Opined about a possible Frog Boil based on a proprietary indicator, the VIX/VXN Volatility Ratio. 

Here is that Opine.  Although prickly, not to be confused with porcupine.

 Well look above, first the 20 point drop to get the frogs to jumps into the pot, then a spastic increase in "heat" with occasional relief in temperature to convince the frogs to stay in the pot while tiring them out in duration.  Note the orange line the 38 Fibo as defined in the blue notes, which seems to be Gandolf saying "you shall not pass".   Let the battle commence.

And here is the 9-12-2010 Chart showing the "Frog Boil" in action

And a new indicator.   The PM Summation.   This is a sub-component of my "Fear Factor" indicator. 

It draws nice trendlines.   When money runs out of bonds, where will it go to? 

Real Estate (yeah right)
precious metals
US stocks
China stocks
Art work
More Harley's to sit in  the garage
Junk bonds