Friday, November 11, 2011

Put call is quite low implies bearish ahead

Equity Options Index Options Total Put / Call
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Ratio
9:00 AM 130838 93115 223953 139000 181169 320169 269838 274284 544122 1.02
9:30 AM 235126 159098 394224 237106 334558 571664 472232 493656 965888 1.05
10:00 AM 331137 216597 547734 338778 456577 795355 669915 673174 1343089 1.00
10:30 AM 397150 254184 651334 424268 544631 968899 821418 798815 1620233 0.97
11:00 AM 463934 298195 762129 497719 618965 1116684 961653 917160 1878813 0.95
11:30 AM 511175 330435 841610 522695 658173 1180868 1033870 988608 2022478 0.96
12:00 PM 559162 366544 925706 568663 705732 1274395 1127825 1072276 2200101 0.95
12:30 PM 607599 392820 1000419 610194 754998 1365192 1217793 1147818 2365611 0.94
1:00 PM 654281 420142 1074423 635894 828217 1464111 1290175 1248359 2538534 0.97
1:30 PM
2:00 PM
2:30 PM
3:00 PM

Simple set up of ethical enforcement of laws promoting production and good business.

Just setup a good system, enforce laws evenly and ethically, and then let the free market do it's thing, which will be a good thing. Below are some examples of how far we have come from Utopia. It is not capitalism that is the problem, it is corruption, cronyism, lobbying, and regulatory capture. When judges trample the Constitution, it is obvious they have become detached from reality, the real world, real business. It is the economy stupid.

The "Vomit" list

Sec. 101.

Extension of Build America Bonds.

Sec. 102. Exempt-facility bonds for sewage and water supply facilities.

Sec. 103. Extension of exemption from alternative minimum tax treatment for certain tax-exempt bonds.

Sec. 104. Extension and additional allocations of recovery zone bond authority.
Sec. 105. Allowance of new markets tax credit against alternative minimum tax.

Sec. 106. Extension of tax-exempt eligibility for loans guaranteed by Federal home loan banks.

Sec. 107. Extension of temporary small issuer rules for allocation of tax-exempt interest expense by financial institutions.

Subtitle A–Energy

Sec. 201. Alternative motor vehicle credit for new qualified hybrid motor vehicles other than passenger automobiles and light trucks.

Sec. 202. Incentives for biodiesel and renewable diesel.

Sec. 203. Credit for electricity produced at certain open-loop biomass facilities.

204. Extension and modification of credit for steel industry fuel.

Sec. 205. Credit for producing fuel from coke or coke gas.

Sec. 206. New energy efficient home credit.

Sec. 207. Excise tax credits and outlay payments for alternative fuel and alternative fuel mixtures.

Sec. 208. Special rule for sales or dispositions to implement FERC or State electric restructuring policy for qualified electric utilities.

Sec. 209. Suspension of limitation on percentage depletion for oil and gas from marginal wells.

Sec. 210. Direct payment of energy efficient appliances tax credit.

Sec. 211. Modification of standards for windows, doors, and skylights with respect to the credit for nonbusiness energy property.

Subtitle B–Individual Tax Relief
PART I–Miscellaneous Provisions

Sec. 221. Deduction for certain expenses of elementary and secondary school teachers.

Sec. 222. Additional standard deduction for State and local real property taxes.

Sec. 223. Deduction of State and local sales taxes.

Sec. 224. Contributions of capital gain real property made for conservation purposes.

Sec. 225. Above-the-line deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses.

Sec. 226. Tax-free distributions from individual retirement plans for charitable purposes.

Sec. 227. Look-thru of certain regulated investment company stock in determining gross estate of nonresidents.
PART II–Low-income Housing Credits

Sec. 231. Election for direct payment of low-income housing credit for 2010.

Sec. 232. Low-income housing grant election.
Subtitle C–Business Tax Relief

Sec. 241. Research credit.
Sec. 242. Indian employment tax credit.
Sec. 243. New markets tax credit.

Sec. 244. Railroad track maintenance credit.

Sec. 245. Mine rescue team training credit.
Sec. 246. Employer wage credit for employees who are active duty members of the uniformed services.

Sec. 247. 5-year depreciation for farming business machinery and equipment.

Sec. 248. 15-year straight-line cost recovery for qualified leasehold improvements, qualified restaurant buildings and improvements, and qualified retail improvements.

Sec. 249. 7-year recovery period for motorsports entertainment complexes.

Sec. 250. Accelerated depreciation for business property on an Indian reservation.

Sec. 251. Enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory.
Sec. 252. Enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of book inventories to public schools.

Sec. 253. Enhanced charitable deduction for corporate contributions of computer inventory for educational purposes.

Sec. 254. Election to expense mine safety equipment.

Sec. 255. Special expensing rules for certain film and television productions.

Sec. 256.

Expensing of environmental remediation costs.

Sec. 257. Deduction allowable with respect to income attributable to domestic production activities in Puerto Rico.

Sec. 258. Modification of tax treatment of certain payments to controlling exempt organizations.

Sec. 259. Exclusion of gain or loss on sale or exchange of certain brownfield sites from unrelated business income.

Sec. 260. Timber REIT modernization.
Sec. 261. Treatment of certain dividends of regulated investment companies.

Sec. 262. RIC qualified investment entity treatment under FIRPTA.
Sec. 263. Exceptions for active financing income.

Sec. 264. Look-thru treatment of payments between related controlled foreign corporations under foreign personal holding company rules.

Sec. 265. Basis adjustment to stock of S corps making charitable contributions of property.

Sec. 266. Empowerment zone tax incentives.

Sec. 267. Tax incentives for investment in the District of Columbia.

Sec. 268. Renewal community tax incentives.

Sec. 269. Temporary increase in limit on cover over of rum excise taxes to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Sec. 270. Payment to American Samoa in lieu of extension of economic development credit.

Sec. 271. Election to temporarily utilize unused AMT credits determined by domestic investment.

Sec. 272. Reduction in corporate rate for qualified timber gain.

Sec. 273. Study of extended tax expenditures.
Subtitle D–Temporary Disaster Relief Provisions
PART I–National Disaster Relief

Sec. 281. Waiver of certain mortgage revenue bond requirements.

Sec. 282. Losses attributable to federally declared disasters.
Sec. 283. Special depreciation allowance for qualified disaster property.

Sec. 284. Net operating losses attributable to federally declared disasters.

Sec. 285. Expensing of qualified disaster expenses.

PART II–Regional Provisions
subpart a–new york liberty zone

Sec. 291. Special depreciation allowance for nonresidential and residential real property.

Sec. 292. Tax-exempt bond financing.
subpart b–go zone

Sec. 295. Increase in rehabilitation credit.

Sec. 296. Work opportunity tax credit with respect to certain individuals affected by Hurricane Katrina for employers inside disaster areas.

Sec. 297. Extension of low-income housing credit rules for buildings in GO zones.


Sec. 301. Definition of eligible plan year.

Sec. 302. Eligible charity plans.
Sec. 303. Suspension of certain funding level limitations.

Sec. 304. Optional use of 30-year amortization periods.

Sec. 305. Transition rule for certifications of plan status.

Subtitle A–Personal Service Income Earned in Pass-thru Entities

Sec.401. Partnership interests transferred in connection with performance of services.
Sec. 402. Income of partners for performing investment management services treated as ordinary income received for performance of services.
Subtitle B–Corporate Provisions

Sec. 411. Treatment of securities of a controlled corporation exchanged for assets in certain reorganizations.

Sec. 412. Taxation of boot received in reorganizations.
Subtitle C–Other Provisions

Sec. 421. Modifications with respect to Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund.

Sec. 422. Denial of deduction for punitive damages.


Sec. 501. Extension of section 508 reclassifications.

Sec. 502. Repeal of delay of RUG-IV.

Sec. 503. Limitation on reasonable costs payments for certain clinical diagnostic laboratory tests furnished to hospital patients in certain rural areas.

Sec. 504. Funding for claims reprocessing.

Sec. 505. Medicaid and CHIP technical corrections.

Sec. 506. Addition of inpatient drug discount program to 340B drug discount program.

Sec. 507. Continued inclusion of orphan drugs in definition of covered outpatient drugs with respect to children’s hospitals under the 340B drug discount program.

Sec. 508. Conforming amendment related to waiver of coinsurance for preventive services.

Sec. 509. Clarification of effective date of part B special enrollment period for disabled TRICARE beneficiaries.

Sec. 510. Adjustment to Medicare payment localities.

Sec. 511. Clarification for affiliated hospitals for distribution of additional residency positions.

Subtitle A–General Provisions
Sec. 601. Allocation of geothermal receipts.
Sec. 602. Employment for youth.

Sec. 603. Housing Trust Fund.

Sec. 604. The Individual Indian Money Account Litigation Settlement Act of 2010.

Sec. 605. Appropriation of funds for final settlement of claims from In re Black Farmers Discrimination Litigation.

Sec. 606. Expansion of eligibility for concurrent receipt of military retired pay and veterans’ disability compensation to include all chapter 61 disability retirees regardless of disability rating percentage or years of service.

Sec. 607. Refunds disregarded in the administration of Federal programs and federally assisted programs.

Sec. 608. Qualifying timber contract options.

Sec. 609. Extension and flexibility for certain allocated surface transportation programs.

Sec. 610. Community College and Career Training Grant Program.

Sec. 611. Extensions of duty suspensions on cotton shirting fabrics and related provisions.

Sec. 612. Modification of Wool Apparel Manufacturers Trust Fund.

Sec. 613. Department of Commerce Study.

Sec. 614. ARRA planning and reporting.

Sec. 615. Surety bonds.
Sec. 616. Funding for Deployment of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency, and Electric Power Transmission Projects.
Subtitle B–Extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance

Sec. 621. Short title.

Sec. 622. Extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance.
Subtitle C–Extension of Health Coverage Improvement

Sec. 631. Improvement of the affordability of the credit.

Sec. 632. Payment for the monthly premiums paid prior to commencement of the advance payments of credit.

Sec. 633. TAA recipients not enrolled in training programs eligible for credit.

Sec. 634. TAA pre-certification period rule for purposes of determining whether there is a 63-day lapse in creditable coverage.

Sec. 635. Continued qualification of family members after certain events.

Sec. 636. Extension of COBRA benefits for certain TAA-eligible individuals and PBGC recipients.

Sec. 637. Addition of coverage through voluntary employees’ beneficiary associations.

Sec. 638. Notice requirements.
Subtitle D–TANF Provisions

Sec. 641. Extension of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and related programs.

Sec. 642. Reinstatement of Federal matching of State spending of child support incentive payments.

Sec. 643. Extension and modification of the TANF Emergency Fund.

Sec. 644. Modifications to TANF data reporting.
Sec. 645. State court improvement program.
Subtitle E–Unemployment Compensation Program Integrity

Sec. 651. Permissible uses of unemployment fund moneys for program integrity purposes.

Sec. 652. Mandatory penalty assessment on fraud claims.

Sec. 653. Prohibition on noncharging due to employer fault.

Sec. 654. Collection of past-due, legally enforceable State debts.

Sec. 655. Treatment of short-time compensation programs.

Sec. 656. State use of compensating balances and interest earned on clearing account to pay associated banking costs.

Sec. 657. Reporting of first day of earnings to directory of new hires.

Sec. 658. Deduction of obligations for custodial parents.

Sec. 659. Advisory Council on unemployment compensation.

Sec. 660. Amendment to the Federal-State extended benefits program.

Sec. 661. Operating instructions and regulations.
Subtitle F–Custom User Fees

Sec. 665. Customs user fees.

Sec. 701. Short title.

Sec. 702. Definitions.

Sec. 703. Sense of Congress.

Sec. 704. Quarterly report on risks posed by foreign holdings of debt instruments of the United States.

Sec. 705. Annual report on risks posed by the Federal debt of the United States.

Sec. 706. Corrective action to address unacceptable and unsustainable risks to United States national security and economic stability.


Sec. 801. Short title.

Sec. 802. Definitions.

Sec. 803. Sense of Congress.

Sec. 804. Annual report on risks posed by foreign holdings of debt instruments of the United States.

Sec. 805. Annual report on risks posed by the Federal debt of the United States.
Sec. 806. Corrective action to address unacceptable risks to United States national security and economic stability.


Sec. 901. Office of the Homeowner Advocate.

Sec. 902. Functions of the Office.

Sec. 903. Relationship with existing entities.

Sec. 904. Rule of construction.

Sec. 905. Reports to Congress.
Sec. 906. Funding.

Sec. 907. Prohibition on participation in Making Home Affordable for borrowers who strategically default.

Sec. 908. Public availability of information.

Buy Program is On, Oscar was right SWING DAY

Bears being tested today.
Of the puts I put on before the big drop, some I cashed out yesterday, they are now even or even negative profit. Amazing "they" can move the market this much just to destroy the bears, but hey, this game is after all, for all the money in the world.

This is a gift to re-short, USD was decimated as the stories to print trillions of Euros run around.

Euro and Cable ran back to test prior channels

ES jumped back into the Apex of the two main converging channels

Veteran's day, low volume. I wonder how they feel about fighting for the Constitution? Bless their souls.

Trading Live with Oscar

This guy is a nut, worth listening to

Internet is really slow, USD futures in a bullish falling wedge

One good thing about Hawaii, really fast internet.
There are more cables between Hawaii and California, than between East Coast and Europe, in terms of bandwidth.  

Not today though.    The internet was terribly slow, to the point that my trading software is almost unusable.   It sticks, hangs, shows wrong price and time.   Can't set stops or move them.   Really bad.   

Must be the sunspot thing.  

Also a full moon, just saying.   And that aircraft carrier size comet that whipped by closer than the moon.  YU55 I believe.   

Steve from Breakpoint Trades came up with a theory that we might form a three white soldiers candle pattern after that big drop.   3 days of trudging upward, killing any old and new bears.   That pattern terminates in another big down candle.   

As a Psy Ops...that would be perfectly evil.  

Bullish on USD, Bearish on US Equities

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Bearish Backtest

We could go to 1150 or even 1050 on the S&P500 very quickly after this near perfect backtest

Currencies have lots of air underneath them too

We are all going to miss Jobs

When Apple is done, probably the whole market is done.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Smartest Guy in the Room

In one trading account, using high leverage on Forex, Futures, and Puts, up over 52% of account value, today.    That is huge, best percentage day ever.   Based on the Blimp of Doom, and Bernoulli Channels, with an icing of Comets, Cometo, and Sunspots.   Laugh as you may.

In reality most of my accounts are still sitting in Cash in USD, which was a nice move all by itself.

That is when you start feeling like the smartest guy in the room.   That is when to reign yourself in.

Don't start increasing bet sizes, because the snap back rally, when it happens, it will, maybe after hours, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, will be quick and violent.

But methinks more weakness for now.   Today was a great example of how NOT to get cute and try to pick a bottom, you know the smart guy move...hey I bet it turns right here....

Well not when you see continuous downward movement on this indicator, never stand in front of that train.

I use 6 indicators to take and Xray of the market, takes 5 seconds for that Xray.  This is one of them.

Wednesday S&P futures and GBP Charts

Questions?   Post Em?   I can't advise you how to trade, but I can tell you what is in my trading journal.

Humans operate as "A Pack" a Lesson in Global Psychology

Humans operate as a Pack, or a herd some may say.

There is a mass global psychology, kind of like the cooperation in a bee hive.   Although I think that perhaps bees are a little better behaved.

Humans are complex, it is not easy to be able to ponder the mysteries of the universe, dive into our own DNA and see things that can't be seen, and yet be chock full of all of the emotions, fears, greed and a host of animalistic instincts, all while making sure to convince our own ego that we are "good people".

Those who are studying pysch might agree this is a good example of "Pack behavior".   See the link at the bottom for the whole story.    Brett Farve who used to play for the Pack, by the way, was fined $50,000 by a sports commission for alleged sexual harassment.    This is an example of how important Packs are to us.   This was a legal matter of supposed sexual harassment.   At the very least a civil matter.

Why does society allow sports authorities to "take care of their own".    Simple, because sports teams are our packs, and any psychologist will tell you that packs are VERY important to human beings.   It really makes no other sense, and flies in the face of all Federal and State laws, and the Constitution.

It is funny how humans go so far out of the way to distance themselves from other animals, at least in their own minds.

Wait-- THIS IS A TRADING BLOG--what the heck are you talking about steveo!!  ??

If the answer to that is not obvious to you after some more thought, then nothing I say could possibly make you see the relevance.   If that is the case, you are blocking the truth from yourself in a way.

Comments?  C'mon


Blimps of Doom

My blimps were truly Hindenburgs, dasn't laugh at the Blimp

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Calling Tops is a Fools Game, Call me a Fool

Indeed this is a strong uptrend in a cyclically bullish timeframe, 4th quarter before election.

New York Summation could be signalling near top, but in a strong uptrend this can just keep floating near the top.

 Cometo NDX chart shows some internal trendline resistance, could be a big downer soon.

Here is the link to the real chart, so you can track it yourself in realtime.   BPT does this link thing all the time, which is awesome, because if you are "letting the market come to you", rather than just jumping into a trade because that makes you feel like you "are working/trading", IF you are doing it right, you need to be watching it in real time for your entry   AND more important, for your exit and stop.$NDX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32830041839&a=237605573

Comets, Earthquakes, and Full Moons, see previous articles, all in play right now.   Sunspots too.

Cable and Euro Looking Like Death

Sometimes when these things just look "too perfect" as a short, they are just setups.

With Euro doom on the front page every day (or Euro salvation depending on your viewpoint), "they" could definitely catch alot of shorts off guard with a ramp job.

But these look weak, trying to break out, work up a wall of worry.

Here is some social mood on your A%%

Defiant Italian PM Berlusconi taken down by markets

Silvio Berlusconi survived sex scandals and corruption trials. Tawdry accounts of sexy “bunga bunga” parties turned him into an international laughing stock. Prosecutors pursued him over a mind-boggling array of suspected improprieties.
Every time he seemed finished, the perma-tanned premier managed to miraculously bounce back.
But he just couldn’t beat the markets.
Berlusconi announced Tuesday he would resign after parliament passes economic reforms demanded by the European Union. He acted in the face of a relentless investor attack on Italy’s government bonds and crumbling support in parliament, almost certainly ending a political career in which he achieved the feat of becoming his nation’s longest-serving premier.
The media baron dominated Italian politics for nearly two decades. He served as premier three times over the past 17 years—a charismatic if polarizing figure who sold Italians a dream of prosperity with his own personal story of transformation from cruise-ship crooner to Italy’s richest man. He also owns AC Milan, one of Italy’s famous soccer clubs.
But in his last years in power, he became almost a grotesque caricature of the charming billionaire who cast a spell over his nation.
The hair transplants and plastic surgery became all too obvious. His reputation as a seducer gave way to allegations of trysts with prostitutes and underage girls. He embarrassed Italy with jaw-dropping gaffes at international summits.
Accusations grew that he was in politics not for Italy’s sake but for his own—to boost his business interests and change laws to shield himself from prosecution.
As pressure for his resignation grew, he remained defiant, labeling opponents “communists” to be kept at bay and prosecutors as “terrorists” defying the will of the people who elected him.
Even as his allies were defecting, he anointed himself Italy’s savior at the close of the Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France, last week.
“I feel a duty to continue these things,” he said. “This is a great duty and sacrifice for me. Here, at the Cannes summit, I looked around and I don’t see anyone in Italy who is up to representing our country. I asked myself, who could represent Italy if I weren’t there?”
But he had only so many political lives. The magnetic smile, the confident wisecracking, the perennial optimism were no longer reassuring.
When Italy became the new focus of the eurozone debt crisis, the financial markets delivered their verdict: Berlusconi himself was the problem. He lacked the political clout to quickly pass the needed measures to boost growth and cut debt. To use a metaphor from his beloved sport of soccer, it was game over.
But ousting Berlusconi wasn’t easy.
“He’s not the retiring type. ... It’s very much a personal trait, he really thinks he’s the best in the world,” said James Walston, a professor of political science at Rome’s American University.
The ultimate fear that clinched political change was that Italy would not be able to pay for its enormous 1.9 trillion euro ($2.6 trillion) debt. That is too expensive for Europe to handle, and could trigger a default that would break up the 17-nation eurozone and drag down the global economy.
Berlusconi had used television and his own wealth to build a political career. He boasted of his riches and kept a lavish lifestyle that included partying with young women.
“I’m no saint,” he said defiantly after his wife of almost 20 years announced she was seeking a divorce in 2009.
But the scandals picked up steam. First a self-described call girl said she went to bed with Berlusconi on the night that Barack Obama was elected U.S. president.
Then came embarrassing criminal charges that he had sex with an underage Moroccan girl nicknamed Ruby Rubacuori (“Rudy the Heart-Stealer”) and used his office to cover it up. The trial is in progress.
While he repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, the 75-year-old Berlusconi was becoming increasingly reclusive in public as he sought to defend himself in three trials and several other criminal investigations.
The trials—the sex case, tax fraud and corruption—will continue but once out of office he will lose the ability to delay hearings as he has been doing, citing conflicts with official business.
Berlusconi had the power to inspire both fierce loyalty and equally fierce opposition. To his admirers, the conservative leader was a capable statesman who sought to make Italy rich and powerful. To his critics, he was a populist whose immense media and political power made him a threat to democracy.
That was perhaps never more apparent than when Berlusconi was attacked by an unstable man during a political rally in Milan in 2009.
The attacker threw a souvenir statuette of Milan’s cathedral at the premier’s face, leaving him with a fractured nose, two broken teeth and lip cuts. Images of Berlusconi’s bloody, shocked face drew sympathy and solidarity even among critics, but his attacker also generated a storm of praise on Facebook and YouTube.
Berlusconi often boasted of his success with women. He entertained friends and world leaders alike at his villas on the Emerald Coast of Sardinia. Scores of young women frequently attended: On one occasion, Italian newspapers reported, the girls were all dressed as “little Santas.”
Berlusconi was famously nicknamed “Papi” (or “Daddy”) by a Neapolitan girl whose 18th birthday party he attended in 2009, an appearance that initiated a spate of sex scandals and left his wife so furious that she filed for divorce soon afterward.

Blimp of Doom

Seems like People Liked the Egg of Doom (search this site)

So maybe this Blimp of Doom will be a good sequel.

Intersection of Hell and High Water

Eh?  Like this stuff, klik some adz, sign up as a follower, don't just lurk, drop a comment,  speak your MIND, we don't mind.

ES is at a crossroads.   It is actually coldest right before the dawn.   I used to ride a motorcycle to work, and when I used to go in early to get a good workout in before work (I would ride at around 4AM), it was way warmer than when I went in for normal work schedule (riding around 6AM).

And so it is with market turns,

This one is from Marketguy, an avid poster on Breakpointtrades, which is a paid service with a great blog, and no trolls.

Put call is moderately low, that would allow for a drop based on recent high levels.   However the longer term averages show the put call to not be exceptionally low, so I wouldn't place strong bets based on this.

USD futures, methinks it goes up

USD Futures has been meandering around for over a week, which is kind of unusual after some big moves.    methinks it is storing up energy, waiting for a bigger move.

I  took 2 Futures long DX

Monday, November 7, 2011

Peter Dag

From Peter Dag, sometimes I poke fun at him, cause he is kind of old school, but bottom line is that there is no magix panacea by which problems get fixed EXCEPT through productivity, encouragement of innovation and hardwork and the reward of those, and the rule of contract law.
About the real reason why the Euro cannot work

According to the [IFO]study, prices of goods produced in Greece went up by an average of 67 percent between 1995 and 2008, a record increase for the euro zone. The average price of domestically produced goods went up by 56 percent in Spain, 47 percent in Portugal and 41 percent in Italy. By contrast, prices went up in Germany by only 9 percent in the same period. (Source: Der Spiegel)

I have always said that the Euro could not work. Currencies reflect the inflation (or productivity) differential between two countries.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Free Newsletter Breakpoint Trades

If you like this stuff, and you are kind of crazy if you don't, sign up using the link on the upper right of Hawaii Trading.

Also drop some comments, and sign up to this site as a follower, I might even feel that all this work is worth it, or at least, appreciated by a few.

Comet YU 55 passed by shortly before the Flash Crash, it comes again Tuesday even closer

Earthquakes in Oklahoma, kind of odd, with the comet and sunspot/storms and all, and full moon.

Read articles below also

Geomagnetic storms

Recency Bias - Hard to Get Away From

I have recency bias, it is one reason I do this blog.

Because I look back to what I was seeing 3 days ago, or 2 weeks ago, and it helps clarify what is happening now.

It is amazing how the current market moves and news plants can change your view, and not in a good way.

Watch out for recency bias.

The current one----market just ramped up 20%, people are thinking that is the market breaks out, it can ramp up again like that, into Santa rally. 

REALITY- Not likely, but just because it just happened, it is fresh in people's heads.   Bears were burned badly (not me), and bears will be scared to place big short bets, because of recency bias.
Bulls will hold on a bit more than normal, because of bias, hoping for that big "I'm a genius run" upward again.   And so the market will take occasional big dips down, 5 to 8% in order to break their will and get them to sell at the worst time. 

Expect a slightly increasing market into the end of the year, but with big ramps within a range of 50 to 100 ES points. 


NASA Solar Flare, Carrington 1859 September

How many USD can an ounce of Gold buy?

Think about that one.