Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Smartest Guy in the Room

In one trading account, using high leverage on Forex, Futures, and Puts, up over 52% of account value, today.    That is huge, best percentage day ever.   Based on the Blimp of Doom, and Bernoulli Channels, with an icing of Comets, Cometo, and Sunspots.   Laugh as you may.

In reality most of my accounts are still sitting in Cash in USD, which was a nice move all by itself.

That is when you start feeling like the smartest guy in the room.   That is when to reign yourself in.

Don't start increasing bet sizes, because the snap back rally, when it happens, it will, maybe after hours, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, will be quick and violent.

But methinks more weakness for now.   Today was a great example of how NOT to get cute and try to pick a bottom, you know the smart guy move...hey I bet it turns right here....

Well not when you see continuous downward movement on this indicator, never stand in front of that train.

I use 6 indicators to take and Xray of the market, takes 5 seconds for that Xray.  This is one of them.



  2. So the smartest place to be right now is cash?
    I kinda like the inverse copper ETF myself (up 9.3% today).  But I've been kicked by these things in the past trying to out guess the market.

  3. I'm laughing...all the way to the bank!!!

  4. ES bounced perfectly to the penny at the Bernoulli 133 line, this could easily bounce to the B177 channel line, which would erase alot of profits -- so my stops are real tight now.   I do have some puts that all i can do is bet long futures to hedge them if it looks like things are going ramp up in the night session, but I hate hedging, it is kind of like buying life insurance, sucks either way.

  5. After flash crash i lost interest in ETFs, but some stink asks could get you out at a fantastic price if their pricing mechanism goes haywire.

  6. Yeah, it's pretty sketchy...thing is, we broke down out of 2 bearish wedgies the last 2 weeks, so whatever happens tomorrow, I'll be waiting to sell shortly after any bounce. The core is a swing trade, so that will stay put. With all the margin calls that will be going out, it will take a miracle to change the momentum.

    What do you make of the conundrum where we have a high put/call but a low short interest on the NYSE?

  7. I don't know how to get an honest read on short interest, seems like they all lag by up to one month, and the cycles are 6 to 14 days.

  8. i had a good day today.
    my deep in the money puts across all sectors, i've been stock picking at...since around last friday---
    all up 50% to 75% today.
    means i had positions that were down in price 5 to 9% today.

  9. Shorting again at ES 1242
    Did hold some puts through the day, painful to see them decimated in this frog boil

  10. Just a little patience...yeaaaaa-yeahhhhhh......


Insightful and Useful Comment!