Saturday, July 24, 2010

Russia Heat Wave -2000 Drowned

From the world of "huhhh?!"

In the last few months, Russians have been swimming in every body of water they can find to cool off during a massive heat wave. Officials say that over 2000 people have drowned in the last few months, most of them were swimming while drunk.

You don't have to make this stuff up...just watch the news.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/38368974#38368974

And check out this GOATMUG blog, he finds and posts some meaningful data.   Data that wipes to smirk off the stupidly bullish faces of those like CNBC pimps.


http://www.goatmug.blogspot.com/

One of his links was the Rails, a real indicator of industrial goods being moved around, a real indicator of the economy.   Huh?  Again, why is it worse than last year (which wasn't all that great anyway)

http://railfax.transmatch.com/rfaxye09.html

Look at these charts -  Please really look at all of them.   Don't be deceived, this country is in a world of hurt.


And the link below has data from 2010 (not just to year end of 2009 which the above charts show. Scroll to the bottom, there is neat "recession indicator" which tracks vehicles and scrap metal, and they are both tanking this month, cash for clunkers is long gone.

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Friday, July 23, 2010

Euro/Stress, and What is the real PE ratio, and what is the game that is on?

The Euro Bank stress test....they played that perfectly.

If the results were too good, they wouldn't be believed. So 7 out of 91 bank representing about 70% of all bank assets were found to be shaky, needing just a few billion Euro to make things right.

If they results were too bad, there would be panic. They played this perfectly, they are learning how to control statistics similar to western countries in order to promote stability. The "Business Cycle" is so old school, who needs it? We can just use statistics and marketing to get around that pesky little thing called the business cycle.

With horror, I go into the weekend completely flat except for some longs in Nat Gas and Gold/Miners.

Steve




Comments below from the blog---

Ben-
Nice work, Steveo. Since the majority of the shorter term timeframes now point up, should we expect to give a good majority of today's gain back tomorrow?

Lately, it seems the more indicators in alignment pointing in one direction, the stronger the move in the opposite of that direction.



steveo77 [Moderator] 11 hours ago in reply to Ben
Monday is supposed to be a massive "turn date", turn which way you say? Well the real P/E ratio is somewhere around 70 to 90, so fundamentally we should turn down....but it is easy to be way wrong, months or years ahead of time.

These last few weeks are just ramping up and down, changing asset classes, HBB playing with their clients money as they hand off the lousy assets to state pension funds, their own mutual funds, client accounts...all with an excuse built in...."we took the trade on technical merit, but it went bad.....all of them....but now the market is even more on sale....are you ready to put some money to work?"

I believe that is the game playing out. Intraday could be very tradable, position trades need cajones of Tungsten and ability to absorb large losses if your theory is wrong.

Ben
P/E 70-90? And bear markets take that "real" P/E number down to what before all is said and done? Single digits?

I agree. Even 1-3 day swing trades are too long of a holding period.


steveo77 [Moderator] 0 minutes ago in reply to Ben

P/E should go to single digits, but this is going to be a primary wave 3, maybe even a super cycle wave in Elliot terms, so it could go to 8 or 9 or even 5, say. My target for S&P 500 is 200.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Rant and charts at the bottom

I have been told that I am "hard on HBB, real hard", so I try not to rant too much.

But seeing this rant by a blogger on Cara made me feel, well, almost, a wimp.   So be it then.   Check out this rant.......

First,
HAPPY BIRTHDAY BILL CARA!
In response to Noonan..... Now the generations that have led us blindly, naively, selfishly and without further thought into the current morass of despicable financial, political, medical, you name it... corruption and malfeasance wants to blame the younger generations for the CRAP we are currently enduring!?!!?!?!?!
I am in my very early 40's. I have been following the elitist agenda of dismantling nation-states for over 20 of those 40 years. I have watched the meticulous and pre-meditated destruction of my nation's economy. I have watched as our media was consolidate and propagandized. I have watched as rampant, unchecked, and merit-less development decimated the pristine environs of my youth. I Have watched as the public educational system was methodically dumbed down and made irrelevant. I have watched as the wall street titans and our politicians shat in our communal nests... sickeningly greedy purveyors of financial destruction hell bent on usurping what has never rightfully or lawfully been theirs. This young man watched the the confusion and consternation of my own parents as I tried relentlessly and without effect to EDUCATE them about from where this idiocy was being dictated and to where it would enevitably would lead. I have been correct at every prognostication (just ask my parents) and resented at every turn for this accuracy because it threatened their safe yet false world view.
For my own unique brand of masochism, I have endured a deadly education dictated by the interests and effects of self centered pharmaceutical and insurance industries as well as the indescribable indoctrination of our care providers into an ignorant, sub-standard, self-perpetuating arrogant dogma of half-truths and archaic, barbaric, BULLPUCKEY known to us as the "best medicine" the west has to offer. Medical institutions and industry has long since been infiltrated and managed by the same elder elitist agenda that promulgates that the best policy for the masses is utter control and enslavement. Degrade the peoples diets. Contaminate the masses with toxins in the form of innoculations and medications. Corrupt the peer review process, centralize and control medical accreditation and eduction, subvert FDA to perpetuate, repress innovation and technological development that would make any true difference and promote anything that destroys, compromises, or undermines true health... Outlaw, demonize, corrupt, and disrupt true health practices and promulgate false beliefs and procedures under the guise of science to further degrade the mental and physical competency of the masses.
Let me tell you.... and understand this very, very clearly.... The medical and scientific community is just as compromised and "ill" as our current political and financial arenas. And just like the highly paid and well educated economists and politicians whose utter ignorance and ineptitude we suffer daily, we also suffer the same intellectual and moral bankruptcy in health science.
All of these experts suffer from an inaccurate perception of reality within which they live and work. The distortions that cloud their perceptions and judgment were meticulously nurtured and reinforced to the point that the vast majority of these individuals are not even consciously aware of these errors. And more importantly, they are fiercely dependent upon and defensive of the control systems, the propaganda, the fallacies and inadequacies under which they suffer.
No, Noonan, our circumstance will not be yoked by youth. The blame remains well away from age-isms... If anything, it will be the rebellious and in-gracious attitude of a repressed younger generation that finally breaks the logjam of filth and vitriol that is destroying this planet. Things will only change when youth seizes power and control away from a very old and ingrained system that has manipulated reality covertly in accordance with dogma dictated to us by our hidden ELDER controllers and their forefathers.

To my parents and their peers I say, once again, somnambulance is no longer a viable political policy! I have always aspired against my own better interests to educate within this reprehensible circus called public life, as have many, many of my contemporaries.

Possible USD breakout and Euro breakdown

Original Charts (except when I do it the old fashion way, I steal it.......)

Looks like my theory of HBB gaming the EWI followers who were emboldened to take bearish postions on Monday due to the EW  Financial Forecast being released on Friday at close, then they ramped the heck out of them and blew away most of the stops with the ramp job.

Notice that the big drops are happening at night, weekends, or just so damn fast that no one can even get a fill to short unless you were already in the position --- yeah --assume the position "we are from HBB we are here to help".


From my Forex company.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Expected Bear Squeeze based on EWI report last Friday at close

So glad I closed my bearish positions, EURO tanking tonight again, but ES not following again.  

Tough market, I don't know anyone stating their impressive results.  HBB sucking up the minimal profits.

Last Friday I stated that I thought this ramp would happen.   

Here is the link.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/07/f-elliot-wave-release-40-page-elliot.html

Now the question is....is this all the ramp there is?    I think so, yet unsure of taking bearish positions since I cannot be monitoring positions

Monday, July 19, 2010

Sunday, July 18, 2010

2 Updates, EWI and BP

The EWI Financial forecast was not as important as I thought.   It was 40 pages long, usually they are 12 to 20.   It had about 35 pages of an event by event evolution of the Beatles, comparing their sucess and failure to various market metrics, in my humble opinion, whatever happens to best support the point they are trying to make at the time.

Sometimes they use the Dow, and sometime the Dow/PPI, and sometimes DOW/GOLD.   Fortunately I was on a beach, taking a mini-vacation, so I didn't feel like I was wasting time reading about the Beatles.   And then, EWI says, even though this report is more than twice as long, they will only count it for two months that their subscribers deserve.  WOW!!   Give me a break.....we are potentially as a massive turning point and EWI is spewingo n about the Beatles and neglecting to provide full updates, whilst charging the full price for a subscription.   Sorry, this really doesn't cut it for me.  

But on the other hand, it is not like they went to to harp about "full tilt bear positions" which would likely cause the powers that be to drop and then ramp the market up in order to take the EWI bear money.



item 2---BP

In a letter addressed to Bob Dudley, BP managing director, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said tests had detected a “seep a distance from the well and undetermined anomalies at the well head.” The letter was posted on the website of the joint information center for the spill.

I agree that the US Gov could "nationalize" BP to the extent of controlling their actions in this national emergency, however, i have never heard that such a thing has happened.   I find it interesting that a Us military Admiral is "directing BP" even if it is just for a report at this moment. 

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/BP_Letter_18_July.791571.pdf

I have scoured the web and cannot find any more information about this "weep" of oil from the ocean floor.

UPDDATE
Ok found some old ones --from 6-13-10, weeps filmed buy ROV Poseiden.   I haven't researched this, apparently the Gov is saying these could be natural leaks, not related to the Big Leak.