Nice work, Steveo. Since the majority of the shorter term timeframes now point up, should we expect to give a good majority of today's gain back tomorrow?
Lately, it seems the more indicators in alignment pointing in one direction, the stronger the move in the opposite of that direction.
Monday is supposed to be a massive "turn date", turn which way you say? Well the real P/E ratio is somewhere around 70 to 90, so fundamentally we should turn down....but it is easy to be way wrong, months or years ahead of time.
These last few weeks are just ramping up and down, changing asset classes, HBB playing with their clients money as they hand off the lousy assets to state pension funds, their own mutual funds, client accounts...all with an excuse built in...."we took the trade on technical merit, but it went bad.....all of them....but now the market is even more on sale....are you ready to put some money to work?"
I believe that is the game playing out. Intraday could be very tradable, position trades need cajones of Tungsten and ability to absorb large losses if your theory is wrong.
P/E should go to single digits, but this is going to be a primary wave 3, maybe even a super cycle wave in Elliot terms, so it could go to 8 or 9 or even 5, say. My target for S&P 500 is 200.
Nice work, Steveo. Since the majority of the shorter term timeframes now point up, should we expect to give a good majority of today's gain back tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteLately, it seems the more indicators in alignment pointing in one direction, the stronger the move in the opposite of that direction.
nah. even if we get a pullback, this is a b or ii off the whole move since april. another senseless rally, but playable.
ReplyDeletewell, we'll see.
Monday is supposed to be a massive "turn date", turn which way you say? Well the real P/E ratio is somewhere around 70 to 90, so fundamentally we should turn down....but it is easy to be way wrong, months or years ahead of time.
ReplyDeleteThese last few weeks are just ramping up and down, changing asset classes, HBB playing with their clients money as they hand off the lousy assets to state pension funds, their own mutual funds, client accounts...all with an excuse built in...."we took the trade on technical merit, but it went bad.....all of them....but now the market is even more on sale....are you ready to put some money to work?"
I believe that is the game playing out. Intraday could be very tradable, position trades need cajones of Tungsten and ability to absorb large losses if your theory is wrong.
P/E 70-90? And bear markets take that "real" P/E number down to what before all is said and done? Single digits?
ReplyDeleteI agree. Even 1-3 day swing trades are too long of a holding period.
To me, they've all been senseless for over a year now. Unfortunately, gotta play the hand they deal. Especially when the deck is stacked...
ReplyDeleteP/E should go to single digits, but this is going to be a primary wave 3, maybe even a super cycle wave in Elliot terms, so it could go to 8 or 9 or even 5, say. My target for S&P 500 is 200.
ReplyDelete