Perhaps a necessary level of being a good trader requires one to be able to step outside any level of rationality and embrace absurdity with neutrality.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
More Big Banks Failing and BB gets Good Report Card
Perhaps a necessary level of being a good trader requires one to be able to step outside any level of rationality and embrace absurdity with neutrality.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Kayak of Charts, certainly not a boatload
Stop popping volume in the middle of the night. Who can just throw 7000 futures long to pop the market a few points...how many stops where hiding just beyond the previous high. I guess it's legal? Maybe it matters how that operation is conducted and what information they are looking at.
Office Reits
Well if there was ever a powerhouse sector such as commercial real estate, it would have to be Office Reits, the P/E ratio is 317. No joke, see attached. I hardly can even come up with a conspiracy theory to make that make sense.
God save you if you have been shorting them.
Lots of speeches on expiry day...same day as existing housing...hmmm...are they trying to sway things upward? Sure confidence is great, but not if you are standing on a house of cards. Then it is foolhardy.
God save you if you have been shorting them.
Lots of speeches on expiry day...same day as existing housing...hmmm...are they trying to sway things upward? Sure confidence is great, but not if you are standing on a house of cards. Then it is foolhardy.
Living Large is a Mirage, and Max Pain
Check out this video on how Us living large was a mirage.
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vRWKgzaqCDow.asf
Much of what we are facing is a mortgage problem, which is a banking problem, which is a credit problem. 13% of all mortgages are being foreclosed or late on payments. That is huge. And it will get worse.
Check out these max pain (min pain) charts. They have a premium service too, never tried it. SPY at 100 take about $60M out of the market makers hands in option payoffs they have to make, compared to SPY at 98. This implies SPY moves to 98. But I think some index ETF's actually expire on Thursday, not 100% sure, not playing any. Its a cool concept, but I never paid it enough mind to come to a conclusion on whether it works well. It is a well known effect that stocks "pin" to an option strike at expiry.
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vRWKgzaqCDow.asf
Much of what we are facing is a mortgage problem, which is a banking problem, which is a credit problem. 13% of all mortgages are being foreclosed or late on payments. That is huge. And it will get worse.
Check out these max pain (min pain) charts. They have a premium service too, never tried it. SPY at 100 take about $60M out of the market makers hands in option payoffs they have to make, compared to SPY at 98. This implies SPY moves to 98. But I think some index ETF's actually expire on Thursday, not 100% sure, not playing any. Its a cool concept, but I never paid it enough mind to come to a conclusion on whether it works well. It is a well known effect that stocks "pin" to an option strike at expiry.
ES Wedge Redeux--another shorting opportunity
One thing though, the popular media was harping on how Asia was down big on worries. Asia was not down big, it was scattered and mostly under 1% moves, which is noise....that worries me.
It worries me that the media has been leaked news of a big down, and maybe the MM's bang the tape higher tomorrow to beat on the bears one more time. Seriously, there are people out there who think it is wrong to bet to the downside. People in high leadership positions who don't understand the big picture, just glib talk and a continued "con"fidence game.
So sweet, just a few minutes later, a perfect bounce...at least now I can go drink my lavender tea and knock out for a good nights sleep. Stop is moved to breakeven, and who know, could wake up to a few extra grand in the ol' trading account.
It worries me that the media has been leaked news of a big down, and maybe the MM's bang the tape higher tomorrow to beat on the bears one more time. Seriously, there are people out there who think it is wrong to bet to the downside. People in high leadership positions who don't understand the big picture, just glib talk and a continued "con"fidence game.
So sweet, just a few minutes later, a perfect bounce...at least now I can go drink my lavender tea and knock out for a good nights sleep. Stop is moved to breakeven, and who know, could wake up to a few extra grand in the ol' trading account.
The /ES rising Wedge
I went short at /ES at 1007. Every nerve of my body was telling me that it would be insane to short this market. So I pulled the trigger.
When it is right there in front of you, you need to have the balls to pull the trigger, even though the last 6 guns blew up in your face.
Hurricanes cause increase in equities prices
Unless you are actively daytrading, I don't find much interest in trying to trade during expiry week. Work demands make it impossible to daytrade this week and next. I may post the occasional big picture /ES chart and hopefully chime in on the weekend.
We are back to where we started Monday....a good whipsaw givng hope to bears and bulls to chunk down their capital.
The fear of hurricanes drives ships away, and inventory reports on oil cause oil to skyrocket based upon "big demand" which is a fallacy perpetuated by financial entertainment television and industry professionals who do know better. This in turn drives equities up as part of Pretchers "all one market" theme.
Therefore, hurricanes cause increases in equity prices. This market is fractured.
We are back to where we started Monday....a good whipsaw givng hope to bears and bulls to chunk down their capital.
The fear of hurricanes drives ships away, and inventory reports on oil cause oil to skyrocket based upon "big demand" which is a fallacy perpetuated by financial entertainment television and industry professionals who do know better. This in turn drives equities up as part of Pretchers "all one market" theme.
Therefore, hurricanes cause increases in equity prices. This market is fractured.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The tribe will get smaller in numbers
As things deteriorate, you will see the "tribe" become smaller.
What this means is that peoples trust groups and association groups will get smaller.
People who used to feel part of their country, will now think more of their State, or County.
People will think less of their national union, and more of their local.
And in the end, with the saber tooth tigers attacking the village, the survival instinct of knowing that you can only stand back to back with your family in the final stand, will emerge.
As things progress, the tribe becomes smaller.
I have noticed even on financial blogs, that at times people get snippy, attacking, short. It's just part of the overall collective emotional response and need for cycles to keep us from getting too complacent so that the neighborboring tribe comes and takes everything. It creates the need to excel and push forward and evolve.
In case you had that question, now it's answered.
What this means is that peoples trust groups and association groups will get smaller.
People who used to feel part of their country, will now think more of their State, or County.
People will think less of their national union, and more of their local.
And in the end, with the saber tooth tigers attacking the village, the survival instinct of knowing that you can only stand back to back with your family in the final stand, will emerge.
As things progress, the tribe becomes smaller.
I have noticed even on financial blogs, that at times people get snippy, attacking, short. It's just part of the overall collective emotional response and need for cycles to keep us from getting too complacent so that the neighborboring tribe comes and takes everything. It creates the need to excel and push forward and evolve.
In case you had that question, now it's answered.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Don't get big Short
The market could move down 5% tomorrow,or it couldn't. It expiry week, anything is possible.
Don't get big short...as many chart as i posted....I have not entered any more short positions.
Don't get big short...as many chart as i posted....I have not entered any more short positions.
ES late night short on 9 point move looks ABC enough to me
I know this is kind of a tease, but if you check the earlier posts, you get a medium and long term swing trade perspective. You can see where these lines came from.
Its enough for me to chunk down my hard earned dollars.
Its enough for me to chunk down my hard earned dollars.
Short Short List
These are all detailed below in charts.
This is the excel spreadsheet so you can modify it, add to it, set stop level, rational for trade, whatever you wish. It is good to keep track of such things, so you can later ask yourself...WTH was I thinking !?!?!?!
http://www.mediafire.com/?onnymno2td1
Below is a TXT format, simple text file, that will allow a quick import to thinkorswim and probably other trading programs.
Let me know how you like this.
http://www.mediafire.com/?zmwgljztztt
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Text to Speech Function -- Listen to the Blog
Check out this website...it is listed as a permanent link on this blog, on the right hand side. Listen to a blog or news story, whilst you make your coffee and crumpets.
Sorry - link feature not working you have to copy and paste.
http://www.research.att.com/~ttsweb/tts/demo.php
Sorry - link feature not working you have to copy and paste.
http://www.research.att.com/~ttsweb/tts/demo.php
Correlations to the Depresssion
Orig comment on Evil Speculator:
In one of her comments a couple of weeks ago, Fujisan suggested that she saw more similarities between 2009 and 1938 than with other bear markets.
FWIW, this weekend, a Barron's article mentioned the McMillan Analysis shwoing an 89% correlation between the two years [2009 and 1938]. 'For the record, a late-July top in 1938 saw a modest decline to a late-September bottom, after which prices skyrocketed to new yearly highs by November: 58% off the March lows of that year,' the firm said its research shows.'
steveo writes (then later lets see if he can back up his goals)
Hey Loonie, is the Loonie going up or down? Are you in Canada and what are conditions like in your neck of the woods.
One of my friends just hightailed it out of Canada and moved to Vegas were bookings were up 30% FWIW
OK it 1:27 PM here, by 2:00 PM I intend to collect the S&P data from 1938 and current data. Enter into a spreadsheet, and perform a correlation analysis. Then I will show the plots on the same chart, based on percentages. The charts will be posted to the great Evil site, and also to my blog. My blog will also shows the charts, and have links were you can download the actual Excel spreadsheet....Office 2007 sorry, get a convertor if you have earlier version.
I hate the he said, she said, they said, and Barrons is about as sketchy as Bloomberg public news these days. Slightly above McGraw Hill. 89% correlation is a massively high correlation...history doesnt repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.
In one of her comments a couple of weeks ago, Fujisan suggested that she saw more similarities between 2009 and 1938 than with other bear markets.
FWIW, this weekend, a Barron's article mentioned the McMillan Analysis shwoing an 89% correlation between the two years [2009 and 1938]. 'For the record, a late-July top in 1938 saw a modest decline to a late-September bottom, after which prices skyrocketed to new yearly highs by November: 58% off the March lows of that year,' the firm said its research shows.'
steveo writes (then later lets see if he can back up his goals)
Hey Loonie, is the Loonie going up or down? Are you in Canada and what are conditions like in your neck of the woods.
One of my friends just hightailed it out of Canada and moved to Vegas were bookings were up 30% FWIW
OK it 1:27 PM here, by 2:00 PM I intend to collect the S&P data from 1938 and current data. Enter into a spreadsheet, and perform a correlation analysis. Then I will show the plots on the same chart, based on percentages. The charts will be posted to the great Evil site, and also to my blog. My blog will also shows the charts, and have links were you can download the actual Excel spreadsheet....Office 2007 sorry, get a convertor if you have earlier version.
I hate the he said, she said, they said, and Barrons is about as sketchy as Bloomberg public news these days. Slightly above McGraw Hill. 89% correlation is a massively high correlation...history doesnt repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.
Magazine Cover -- Are the Bears too Scared to come out and Play
A certain magazine publisher is a great indicator. The comment of my about "?after a 50% run up?" us my own, not part of the original magazine cover that just came today.
Bulls showing cautious optimism of plunking down more money in the hopes of greedy prospects. Well, that is bearish. Mag cover on my site.
Bulls showing cautious optimism of plunking down more money in the hopes of greedy prospects. Well, that is bearish. Mag cover on my site.
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