quickpost
Sure glad I held 2 short on ES futures.
On the road, so flying on instrument flight rules only.....in other words, set on autopilot and asleep.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Euro Again and Bullish Percent
Euro, its all about the Euro, they will be the first to blow up their currency.
Check the bullish percent index charts, these are generated in a mechanical process that looks at the point and figure charts, which are easily created by computer, no interpretation necessary.
Consumari Disc is up, but only because it crawled out of a manhole, same with staples.
Energy is up but it was down to 30!
Finance is struggling to find any footing, although a channel is clear and it is near the bottom, finance could pop up over the next weeks.
Healthcare is the healthiest of them all, except maybe telecom. Telecom is a joke, they only exist through monopolistic practices, customer disdain, and decreasing services. But whatever, we are chartists and those 2 charts look OK.
Technology cant get above it's 20DMA
Let me say it again TECH and FINANCE are sucking wind.
Industrial and materials are sucking wind, with materials the worst of the two. They have strong horizontal resistance and resistance from the 50DMA just overhead.
Copper, lumber, have just been pummeled last few month, but copper is still historically high.
Check the bullish percent index charts, these are generated in a mechanical process that looks at the point and figure charts, which are easily created by computer, no interpretation necessary.
Consumari Disc is up, but only because it crawled out of a manhole, same with staples.
Energy is up but it was down to 30!
Finance is struggling to find any footing, although a channel is clear and it is near the bottom, finance could pop up over the next weeks.
Healthcare is the healthiest of them all, except maybe telecom. Telecom is a joke, they only exist through monopolistic practices, customer disdain, and decreasing services. But whatever, we are chartists and those 2 charts look OK.
Technology cant get above it's 20DMA
Let me say it again TECH and FINANCE are sucking wind.
Industrial and materials are sucking wind, with materials the worst of the two. They have strong horizontal resistance and resistance from the 50DMA just overhead.
Copper, lumber, have just been pummeled last few month, but copper is still historically high.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Closed Shorts
Tomorrow is Fed Speak day. They are creative, they are good, they are powerful. However, too bad they been dealt a macro hand that is impossible to win.
Closed all shorts except 2 futures in at 1102.75 on the /ES.
Holding a few long term trades, Natty via UNG,
Almost embarrassed to say I own that value depleting rollover contango son a gun, but it has been great lately, and gulf events and seasonal trends mean I will have a pretty strong hand on that one.
2 gold miner stocks, PTQMF and BGLPF--nothing too exciting there.
Some managed futures (they stink....12 month and net result is like 3% down, like most professionals....they need a strong trend to "survive")
also holding some UUP (USD ETF), but ready to throw that under the bus soon as I think wave 5 will be done.
Closed all shorts except 2 futures in at 1102.75 on the /ES.
Holding a few long term trades, Natty via UNG,
Almost embarrassed to say I own that value depleting rollover contango son a gun, but it has been great lately, and gulf events and seasonal trends mean I will have a pretty strong hand on that one.
2 gold miner stocks, PTQMF and BGLPF--nothing too exciting there.
Some managed futures (they stink....12 month and net result is like 3% down, like most professionals....they need a strong trend to "survive")
also holding some UUP (USD ETF), but ready to throw that under the bus soon as I think wave 5 will be done.
It's all about the Euro, Yuan, USD....it's war!
USD would love some inflation...easiest way to "pay down" the debt. China repricing Yuan will make it harder for China to export to US, easier for US to export to China (not that huge anyway), and will raise costs in the US (because we can't buy the Chinese goods as cheap anymore). That will make GDP numbers look good, and maybe even US firm profits will look better.
Kind of a no-brainer to push for this, from the Gov standpoint anyway, from a conservative saver point of you, you are about to get screwed.
However, the powers of deflation are also very strong, credit drying up decreases the money supply. So there is our second push me pull you tug of war going on.
These channels really look like they are working well on the Euro, they were drawn months ago. They now have real legitimacy.
Bounced down off 50Fib, Support by 38 Fib
Also, this "push me pull you" effect with the Euro is causing multiple areas of support, but also breakage of support.
i.e. the SPX can provide energy to drive the Euro down, and vice-versa.
Bizarro world arbitrage and hedging is making this game tough to play, as well as the outright corruption and ability of single source, or multiple large source intentional ramp up and down control of the markets
Euro could now take SPX for a sled ride....that would give the Evil Bald One incentive to spur the market with some Fedspeak tomorrow on Wednesday.
Monday, June 21, 2010
HUGE Open interest on ES futures for nightitme
Something big is up, I normally see around 40 bid and ask around the trade price, but tonight saw often 1000 and even 3000. Something big is up,
I added shorts at 1112.5 on the ES. Sad after going short at 1103 that they ramped it up and I closed 70% of those shorts at a loss (but less than 1112, so I am back in short at a higher price.
Keep in mind the Euro swat down that I theorized has appeared to come true.
I added shorts at 1112.5 on the ES. Sad after going short at 1103 that they ramped it up and I closed 70% of those shorts at a loss (but less than 1112, so I am back in short at a higher price.
Keep in mind the Euro swat down that I theorized has appeared to come true.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
McC and Buy/Sell money
Friday was odd, of course it was an Expiry day.
There was alot of buying on weakness AND selling on strength. I never noticed that before on this good website.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3002
And the McClellan (affectionatly known as the McC) was a very small change, 1.2 or so, anything under 8 is "small" in my book.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24nymo
And the Euro has been hot, going up. But I have been mentioning this resistance for a while. Funny how it just broke through by not even a tenth of a penny.
From last week, note the green line in the sand
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/06/euro-and-es-perspective.html
Current condition---after the swat down. Now we shall see---does the swat momentum continue, or is the gap fill good enough to start running back up again. I go with the swat down.
There was alot of buying on weakness AND selling on strength. I never noticed that before on this good website.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3002
And the McClellan (affectionatly known as the McC) was a very small change, 1.2 or so, anything under 8 is "small" in my book.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24nymo
And the Euro has been hot, going up. But I have been mentioning this resistance for a while. Funny how it just broke through by not even a tenth of a penny.
From last week, note the green line in the sand
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/06/euro-and-es-perspective.html
Current condition---after the swat down. Now we shall see---does the swat momentum continue, or is the gap fill good enough to start running back up again. I go with the swat down.
Bullish Percent CandleGlance
Your comments are appreciated, please chime in.
Stockcharts really provides a nice service. It takes time to look at charts, but when you can quickly look at a bunch of charts, side by side, it is really useful.
on the Stockcharts website, they just did an article on how this set of bullish percent charts is showing strength of the market.
Here is their article
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2010/06/some-of-these-things-are-not-like-the-others.html
I beg to differ, 100% to the opposite!
Look at these charts....ONLY Energy is above it's 50 day SMA. Does that make any sense? Are energy companies going to be allowed to gouge the consumer because of the Gulf oil problems. Is that a strength, or a ramp job to throw off the shorts before the real trend starts.
Financials....looks more like a bear flag to me, after all this continuing crises is a banking and financial crisis. And Technology looks as bad as financials. Normally, those two sectors would lead.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA,$BPHEAL,$BPINFO,$BPINDY,$BPMATE,$BPTELE|B
Here is another neat one...a Candleglance of Breadth
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?[BREADTH]
Stockcharts really provides a nice service. It takes time to look at charts, but when you can quickly look at a bunch of charts, side by side, it is really useful.
on the Stockcharts website, they just did an article on how this set of bullish percent charts is showing strength of the market.
Here is their article
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2010/06/some-of-these-things-are-not-like-the-others.html
I beg to differ, 100% to the opposite!
Look at these charts....ONLY Energy is above it's 50 day SMA. Does that make any sense? Are energy companies going to be allowed to gouge the consumer because of the Gulf oil problems. Is that a strength, or a ramp job to throw off the shorts before the real trend starts.
Financials....looks more like a bear flag to me, after all this continuing crises is a banking and financial crisis. And Technology looks as bad as financials. Normally, those two sectors would lead.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA,$BPHEAL,$BPINFO,$BPINDY,$BPMATE,$BPTELE|B
Here is another neat one...a Candleglance of Breadth
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?[BREADTH]
Everything in a Nutshell for Dummies
1) Easy Money was the chosen solution to keep the good times rolling, even though the good times were questionable.
2) Productivity was already being impacted by poor allocation of resources, wars not going well.
3) Financial oligarchs effectively took over the government, existing laws were not enforced, and as thing came to a head in 2006 and 2007 the big brokers (deal makers, IPO, LBO's) were hiring specialists in bankruptcy reorganization. They were poised to buy stuff up on the cheap when things blew up.
4) The recent "recovery" is really just the same recession, but given a hit of crack so it can party on a little longer. Many trillions were spent, but it mostly benefiting big business, big banks/brokers. Long term benefits to the economy are non-existent.
5) Government workers have increased their pay like 30% to 40% whilst non-gov workers have treaded water, even if they have a job at all.
6) Government is expanding it's powers and owning businesses. Whilst theoretically, expanded powers could be useful, why we anyone assume so, given that existing laws and oversight were already so poorly performed.
7) Lobbying, campaign contributions, and restrictions on how any Gov official could migrate from an oversight of an industry to an executive or lobbying position must be instituted.
8) Deflation is likely to be the near term hobgoblin.
9) The Gov can literally just print money, seriously. They can hand out that paper money to pay off debts. They do not have to roll over every debt. All the governments with soveriegn currencies can do this. The Euro cannot. This is called competitive devaluation.
10) Inflation can take hold someday. You best not have all your assets in paper money or equivalents. These changes may happen relatively quickly, like by 2012.
11) The US has plenty of military muscle, expect it to be used more, especially as things go bad.
12) If anyone owes you money, get it now.
13) Very few, maybe 1% of the population learned anything from the greatest financial crisis in a century. Or they "learned" that the Gov can indeed save us by strong Gov intervention in free markets. This makes the next crisis more dangerous.
14) Very few of the problems of the crisis were solved by those trillions of dollars thrown at the situation. It was more just a transfer of wealth from a captive audience to the ogliarchs. The bad debts, bad assets are still on the books, they have just been covered up. Those in the know, know it, and they are pulling out all the stops to "get theirs" before round 2.
14) There may be a QE2 (Quantitative Easing, money printing, throwing money at large banks/brokers), or the USA could follow the austerity trend that is all the rage (pun intended).
15) Reviewed Conquer the Crash by Big Daddy Pretcher. We all love Pretcher, he is a free thinker, like Armstrong, but he has been so wrong for so long, he is not infalliable. His view on Gold is wrong, it is not just a commodity that reacts like others.
16) Gold is a currency. Paper gold is a speculation device, owning gold ETFs and even gold miners is not the same as owning physical gold. Silver is good for making change, buying a tank of gas, bag of rice, etc.
17) We are not at the precipice of Primary 3 wave down, we could be near the end of the 1st 5 waves down (completion of wave 1). Wave 2 could slog sideways for years, like a zombie propped up by QE2.
18) Most people have lived beyond their means for a long time. Most "young people" say 35 and younger, have only lived in a bull market.
19) In order for any chance of moving forward with positive results a few things must happen--banks and investment advisers/brokers/deal makers must be separated by a firewall, not a just a company division name, lobbying must be curtailed, contract law including making bondholders take their lumps, must be restored.
20) Never has the world been so intertwined. Never has the situation for competitive devaluation of every countries currency been so nicely setup.
21) There is still something like $600T of notional value of derivatives floating around out there, and apparently no one even know where they are or how to track them. This is many multiples of the world GDP. This can't be good for the common man.
2) Productivity was already being impacted by poor allocation of resources, wars not going well.
3) Financial oligarchs effectively took over the government, existing laws were not enforced, and as thing came to a head in 2006 and 2007 the big brokers (deal makers, IPO, LBO's) were hiring specialists in bankruptcy reorganization. They were poised to buy stuff up on the cheap when things blew up.
4) The recent "recovery" is really just the same recession, but given a hit of crack so it can party on a little longer. Many trillions were spent, but it mostly benefiting big business, big banks/brokers. Long term benefits to the economy are non-existent.
5) Government workers have increased their pay like 30% to 40% whilst non-gov workers have treaded water, even if they have a job at all.
6) Government is expanding it's powers and owning businesses. Whilst theoretically, expanded powers could be useful, why we anyone assume so, given that existing laws and oversight were already so poorly performed.
7) Lobbying, campaign contributions, and restrictions on how any Gov official could migrate from an oversight of an industry to an executive or lobbying position must be instituted.
8) Deflation is likely to be the near term hobgoblin.
9) The Gov can literally just print money, seriously. They can hand out that paper money to pay off debts. They do not have to roll over every debt. All the governments with soveriegn currencies can do this. The Euro cannot. This is called competitive devaluation.
10) Inflation can take hold someday. You best not have all your assets in paper money or equivalents. These changes may happen relatively quickly, like by 2012.
11) The US has plenty of military muscle, expect it to be used more, especially as things go bad.
12) If anyone owes you money, get it now.
13) Very few, maybe 1% of the population learned anything from the greatest financial crisis in a century. Or they "learned" that the Gov can indeed save us by strong Gov intervention in free markets. This makes the next crisis more dangerous.
14) Very few of the problems of the crisis were solved by those trillions of dollars thrown at the situation. It was more just a transfer of wealth from a captive audience to the ogliarchs. The bad debts, bad assets are still on the books, they have just been covered up. Those in the know, know it, and they are pulling out all the stops to "get theirs" before round 2.
14) There may be a QE2 (Quantitative Easing, money printing, throwing money at large banks/brokers), or the USA could follow the austerity trend that is all the rage (pun intended).
15) Reviewed Conquer the Crash by Big Daddy Pretcher. We all love Pretcher, he is a free thinker, like Armstrong, but he has been so wrong for so long, he is not infalliable. His view on Gold is wrong, it is not just a commodity that reacts like others.
16) Gold is a currency. Paper gold is a speculation device, owning gold ETFs and even gold miners is not the same as owning physical gold. Silver is good for making change, buying a tank of gas, bag of rice, etc.
17) We are not at the precipice of Primary 3 wave down, we could be near the end of the 1st 5 waves down (completion of wave 1). Wave 2 could slog sideways for years, like a zombie propped up by QE2.
18) Most people have lived beyond their means for a long time. Most "young people" say 35 and younger, have only lived in a bull market.
19) In order for any chance of moving forward with positive results a few things must happen--banks and investment advisers/brokers/deal makers must be separated by a firewall, not a just a company division name, lobbying must be curtailed, contract law including making bondholders take their lumps, must be restored.
20) Never has the world been so intertwined. Never has the situation for competitive devaluation of every countries currency been so nicely setup.
21) There is still something like $600T of notional value of derivatives floating around out there, and apparently no one even know where they are or how to track them. This is many multiples of the world GDP. This can't be good for the common man.
Upcoming Head and Shoulders
The market is weak, The Euro is pushing it up and nothing else that I can detect. Are there strong earning and emplyment reports? Not from what I see.
Will the market form a symmetrical H&S? I think not, I think this push will end before that. This latest ramp of pimp did it's job....whipsawed on a grand percentage level. I was short at 1103, which I thought was an awesome entry, and yet the market came back up in a a u-turn and took out me position, for a loss rather than a 20% nice gain.
Good luck.
Will the market form a symmetrical H&S? I think not, I think this push will end before that. This latest ramp of pimp did it's job....whipsawed on a grand percentage level. I was short at 1103, which I thought was an awesome entry, and yet the market came back up in a a u-turn and took out me position, for a loss rather than a 20% nice gain.
Good luck.
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