There ought to be prosecution coming. Demand it. This is not idle ranting, this is called re-instilling contract law, SEC regulation and enforcement, and an investing environment that propels the best and brightest to higher grounds.
http://lehmanreport.jenner.com/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/12/173241/repo-105/
Saturday, March 13, 2010
POST (Primary Over Simplication Theory)
I have posted a new POST
You could study this for a lifetime, read many books, or you can get it here in 30 seconds.
The eggheads have no idea what is going on, especially when it comes to the most important thing in our solar system, the Sun.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/12mar_conveyorbelt.htm?list778560
The sun is the source of all energy, without it, there will be no life. With too much of it, same effect.
Sunspots are important, they are massive releases of energy. Lots of sunspots does not make the earth warmer, it makes it cooler because it produces more clouds, which then reject heat from the planet. There are more effects than just this though.
There is a pretty good chance that what we are really facing IS NOT global warming, but global cooling, ushered in by a potential new era of lots of sunspots. However, that may not be in the near future. And there might be some BIG changes in the meantime, waiting for the next cooling/motivating cycle.
A large sunspot storm could cause massive damage to Human's infrastructure. Hundreds of billions in damage, maybe more. But we can't spend our time and emotional energy worrying about such things.
Hot drought times (like recently) tends to head humanity toward socialism, communism, decadence, and fanaticism, as it has done in 26 previous time in the last 26 100 year cycles. Sharp turns to the left, in and effort to "help" the economic situation pushed forward by various forms of regimentation. Social insurance of many forms comes into being. My main source for this information was written in 1983. It is out of print, but contact me if you want to try to get a copy and I will help if I can.
The cycles go like this:
Hot Dry
Cold Dry
Cold Wet
Warm Wet
Each has distinct characteristics that repeat themselves again and again.
But my 30 seconds are up, and in keeping with the hot dry that we are transitioning from, I am going to party at "Fight Night".
out
You could study this for a lifetime, read many books, or you can get it here in 30 seconds.
The eggheads have no idea what is going on, especially when it comes to the most important thing in our solar system, the Sun.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/12mar_conveyorbelt.htm?list778560
The sun is the source of all energy, without it, there will be no life. With too much of it, same effect.
Sunspots are important, they are massive releases of energy. Lots of sunspots does not make the earth warmer, it makes it cooler because it produces more clouds, which then reject heat from the planet. There are more effects than just this though.
There is a pretty good chance that what we are really facing IS NOT global warming, but global cooling, ushered in by a potential new era of lots of sunspots. However, that may not be in the near future. And there might be some BIG changes in the meantime, waiting for the next cooling/motivating cycle.
A large sunspot storm could cause massive damage to Human's infrastructure. Hundreds of billions in damage, maybe more. But we can't spend our time and emotional energy worrying about such things.
Hot drought times (like recently) tends to head humanity toward socialism, communism, decadence, and fanaticism, as it has done in 26 previous time in the last 26 100 year cycles. Sharp turns to the left, in and effort to "help" the economic situation pushed forward by various forms of regimentation. Social insurance of many forms comes into being. My main source for this information was written in 1983. It is out of print, but contact me if you want to try to get a copy and I will help if I can.
The cycles go like this:
Hot Dry
Cold Dry
Cold Wet
Warm Wet
Each has distinct characteristics that repeat themselves again and again.
But my 30 seconds are up, and in keeping with the hot dry that we are transitioning from, I am going to party at "Fight Night".
out
Friday, March 12, 2010
Chart of Charts IS BACK!!
Not much to say, the world is bullish, until it isn't. Black Swans don't float in, they are delivered on a cruise missile on the weekends or holiday.
Fear Factor, Candles are setting up for a drop, bond article
And in another sign of things to come....
Governments sell off their infrastructure to hedge funds in order to pay their bills. How will you like your sewer rates being set, manipulated, bribed, and rampaged by a hedge fund? They will get you coming and going.....
http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/119_296/indiana_privatize_infrastructure_product-1009371-1.html?ET=bondbuyer:e835:1444142a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BB_Top_10_Emailed_031210
Blow off top? Maybe thats enough, awooooo, Werewolves of London
Check the LME warehouse levels of various commodities (metals)
Gold Silver, Platinum down WHILST Dollar is UP!
The broken clock continues but with a new twist.
"Gold and Oil are both down despite the dollar being down"
Same for Silver and Platinum
I did not bet silver short last night (well only once and got stopped between the 50 and 61 Fib), did not re-bet based on expected strength in the Euro after busting out of its PRS133 Channel.
Very Interesting
"Gold and Oil are both down despite the dollar being down"
Same for Silver and Platinum
I did not bet silver short last night (well only once and got stopped between the 50 and 61 Fib), did not re-bet based on expected strength in the Euro after busting out of its PRS133 Channel.
Very Interesting
Charts and rants
There have been house fires occuring 1 or 3 a week in Oahu. No one has expressed a theory on this yet.....hmmmm. Overcrowding perchance? Overburdened perchance? Sign of things to come.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35818399
In China, 11 rare Tigers, only 300 left in the world die of starvation--no money to buy food. Shouldn't they have donated these tigers to somewhere else? They were feeding them only chicken bones (not meat). What is the extent of human pride in keeping these animals....as a zookeeper, being willing to kill a rare and endangered species rather than saying....sorry we can't afford them, can you take care of the tigers for us.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35831930/
The animals are going "animal"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35823039/
Lifted from GMAK lifted from SOH lifted from......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEkz1XK75XE
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Silly Talk --"Bear must get going"
I have ranted on this several times.
Bears cannot "get going". It is an absurd concept. Does anyone in their right mind think that you can make the market drop by shorting it? EXACTLY the opposite.
Bears need to act like Aikidoists. Hands down.
Comment below is from a favorite blog, but I disagree.
Over 50% of the rise from March lows (saying this without substantiation since at one point it was 80% and recent rally was 63% futures) was futures induced gap ups.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/market-comments-and-bear-reality.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/delta-nuetral-force-new-es-channels.html
Bears cannot "get going". It is an absurd concept. Does anyone in their right mind think that you can make the market drop by shorting it? EXACTLY the opposite.
Bears need to act like Aikidoists. Hands down.
Comment below is from a favorite blog, but I disagree.
Over 50% of the rise from March lows (saying this without substantiation since at one point it was 80% and recent rally was 63% futures) was futures induced gap ups.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/market-comments-and-bear-reality.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/delta-nuetral-force-new-es-channels.html
A Rant, and long overdue
DavidDT did a nice rant tonight on his fine blog, check the blog roll. And it inspired mine.
Shenanigans will continue
Just like the "outlawing" of short sales on some financial stocks (like 400 if remember right) occurred during the 2008 shenanigans, similar things will occur again. It's not just that shorts were outlawed, it is the deceptive nature in which the true rules regarding the "outlaw" were complicity disguised and opaqued (that's now a verb if it wasn't before). I can explain more if anyone interested, but for now lets just make that statement.
US Gov does not want people converting to other currencies and putting money offshore where it takes more effort for them to slice off a chunk for themselves.
This story is one of the effects/results/foreboding ideas.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/HSBC-data-on-24000-Swiss-apf-2029038052.html?x=0
US Gov does not want people converting to other currencies and putting money offshore where it takes more effort for them to slice off a chunk for themselves.
This story is one of the effects/results/foreboding ideas.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/HSBC-data-on-24000-Swiss-apf-2029038052.html?x=0
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Interesting Charts and a New Bond Fund to Follow
I like the Earthquake Gadget i found for my google desktop. However, now that CNN is pimping out the Earthquake conspiracy theory...I think I will leave that line of thought. They are stating how a recent 4.4 quake in Big Island Hawaii is another Bizarre quake.
http://cnmnewsnetwork.com/12324/hawaii-earthquake-another-bizarre-quake-shakes-land/
http://cnmnewsnetwork.com/12324/hawaii-earthquake-another-bizarre-quake-shakes-land/
FF and original thoughts
The DWC is definitely breaking to new highs.
At the same time Fear Factor is repelling by it's upper channel line. This is very bearish.
This ain't going to be easy....we are going to breakout or breakdown.
I am thinking large bearish bets, extremely liquid, and ready to cover.
At the same time Fear Factor is repelling by it's upper channel line. This is very bearish.
This ain't going to be easy....we are going to breakout or breakdown.
I am thinking large bearish bets, extremely liquid, and ready to cover.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
Picture Your Stop as a German Shepherd
Stops can really suck when the market makers are whipping the market around, ramping futures overnight like a son-a-gun doing God's work.
But those things happen. I just read a guy's blog who blew up 90% of his account with an option position that went against him, not using a stop. I have certainly lost 100% on some options trades...like my March puts on SPY--but also not betting the farm....somehow I think those 80's just ain't gonna pay off....its not actually even worth the trade cost to cash them in.
I keep hearing from people that dogs will not guard property, only people (their pack). Some people don't know jack, every time you hear a cliche, especially a financial one, think about it as deception.
Check the video
Think about your stop as the object this German Shepherd Dog is protecting, and right behind that is your money. Visualize this -- the GSD is not easily deceived, just as your stop...picked before you entered the trade, was based on sound judgment...well at least based on a real reason, not the heat of the moment, will also not be deceived. You can also enter the same trade again, don't sweat it.
Did you make it this far? That dog's name is Bear, he has earned a Schutzhund 3 ranking, that's like a blackbelt. He is the father dog of my two German Shepherds. Pretty cool, eh?
But those things happen. I just read a guy's blog who blew up 90% of his account with an option position that went against him, not using a stop. I have certainly lost 100% on some options trades...like my March puts on SPY--but also not betting the farm....somehow I think those 80's just ain't gonna pay off....its not actually even worth the trade cost to cash them in.
I keep hearing from people that dogs will not guard property, only people (their pack). Some people don't know jack, every time you hear a cliche, especially a financial one, think about it as deception.
Check the video
Think about your stop as the object this German Shepherd Dog is protecting, and right behind that is your money. Visualize this -- the GSD is not easily deceived, just as your stop...picked before you entered the trade, was based on sound judgment...well at least based on a real reason, not the heat of the moment, will also not be deceived. You can also enter the same trade again, don't sweat it.
Did you make it this far? That dog's name is Bear, he has earned a Schutzhund 3 ranking, that's like a blackbelt. He is the father dog of my two German Shepherds. Pretty cool, eh?
Futures overnight moves accounting for 63% of the recent move up
The G-Team is perhaps trying to be a little more discreet in this ramp job. On the run from March, I read that 80% of the increases were ramped on the weekends. This last little bear crushing run up was created 63% by futures and gaps up. Gaps are way more prevalent than they used to be. Blame it on the G-Team or on Globalization?
See table below and convince yourself
See table below and convince yourself
The Squid now sucking blood from your State Pension Fund
Comments please.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDuLDy3OUFmg&pos=13
The Squid goes after any blood that is still warm.
We all know that Governmental Pension funds are in trouble of their own. After all the S&P has gone nowhere for a decade. Their planning is usually based on 7% to 10% growth using a blend of 80% equities and 20% bonds, or something similar.
But when I see newspaper articles how some of the large schools like Princeton or Kamehameha Schools, for instance, dropped the value of their entire portfolio (measured in many Billions), by 30% or 40%, you know there is trouble. They were already "behind", now it is worse.
Now States are started to use leverage to try to get back on track, and investment advisers are recommending leverage as a "free lunch" that States ought to take advantage of.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/wisconsins-pension-strategy-update.html
We all know there is no prosecution coming. Making statements like "leverage is a free lunch" should be punished just for absurdity. Check out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/opinion/06chernow.htm?_r=2
Which is reference from a blurb I did--
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/fcic-then-and-now.html
HERE IS THE KICKER--
After the brokers and banks lent like drunken sailors, pocketing fees and then giving away the spoils to the executives, now they want to have State Pension funds back the banks.
This would probably be another way for the Banksters, and let me coin, Brokesters (cause they broke everyone else) to suck more money from honest working people.
And it would be a good ring through the nose of the States, allowing the Federally controlled banking system to lengthen their whip, should any impetuous states like Texas start talking about
seceding from the union
If any State starts acting out, the Feds could pull some tricks like raising their banks reserve requirements or some other trick to force them into bankruptcy, destroying 90% of the wealth, and taking down the State retirement fund with it. This would enrage the population, but they would also be really hurt, enough so that they may crawl back so they have at least enough to live, it would make the population mad at their State government for bringing this demise on them.
And the bank could be sold to some completely independent bank like Goldman, for 10% on the dollar.
I rest my case.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDuLDy3OUFmg&pos=13
The Squid goes after any blood that is still warm.
We all know that Governmental Pension funds are in trouble of their own. After all the S&P has gone nowhere for a decade. Their planning is usually based on 7% to 10% growth using a blend of 80% equities and 20% bonds, or something similar.
But when I see newspaper articles how some of the large schools like Princeton or Kamehameha Schools, for instance, dropped the value of their entire portfolio (measured in many Billions), by 30% or 40%, you know there is trouble. They were already "behind", now it is worse.
Now States are started to use leverage to try to get back on track, and investment advisers are recommending leverage as a "free lunch" that States ought to take advantage of.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/wisconsins-pension-strategy-update.html
We all know there is no prosecution coming. Making statements like "leverage is a free lunch" should be punished just for absurdity. Check out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/opinion/06chernow.htm?_r=2
Which is reference from a blurb I did--
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/fcic-then-and-now.html
HERE IS THE KICKER--
After the brokers and banks lent like drunken sailors, pocketing fees and then giving away the spoils to the executives, now they want to have State Pension funds back the banks.
This would probably be another way for the Banksters, and let me coin, Brokesters (cause they broke everyone else) to suck more money from honest working people.
And it would be a good ring through the nose of the States, allowing the Federally controlled banking system to lengthen their whip, should any impetuous states like Texas start talking about
seceding from the union
If any State starts acting out, the Feds could pull some tricks like raising their banks reserve requirements or some other trick to force them into bankruptcy, destroying 90% of the wealth, and taking down the State retirement fund with it. This would enrage the population, but they would also be really hurt, enough so that they may crawl back so they have at least enough to live, it would make the population mad at their State government for bringing this demise on them.
And the bank could be sold to some completely independent bank like Goldman, for 10% on the dollar.
I rest my case.
PRS-133 Plays out AGAIN!
The semi-famous PRS 133% channel lines have played out again, almost to a pip.
Amazing. The PRS-133 is now my default channel line in thinkorswim trading/charting program.
Amazing. The PRS-133 is now my default channel line in thinkorswim trading/charting program.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Fear Factor update and Chart of Charts Commentary
Friday was a strong breadth day. The FF factor jumped up (which is actually bullish for stock prices).
I have long futures on ES, but ready to throw them under the bus at the drop of a hat.
CHART of CHARTS---suffice it to say, it's fully bullish. The 5, 10, 20 DMA all bullish, and strongly so. Bullish for an unusually long time period now.
Maybe I can produce the chart during the week, no time tonight. But keep in mind, over half of all the charts are "ready to do something", ready to breakout into bullish or bearish patterns. That's alot of volatility potential!
I have long futures on ES, but ready to throw them under the bus at the drop of a hat.
CHART of CHARTS---suffice it to say, it's fully bullish. The 5, 10, 20 DMA all bullish, and strongly so. Bullish for an unusually long time period now.
Maybe I can produce the chart during the week, no time tonight. But keep in mind, over half of all the charts are "ready to do something", ready to breakout into bullish or bearish patterns. That's alot of volatility potential!
Good resource for visualizations of data, extensive!
http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/references/references-subjects-covered/data-structuring/data-visualisation-references/
Thebelow is one of the links....if you see some snazzy looking data charted up in the near future, that might be the ticket that made it possible. HTML code for custom charts.
http://www.flexmonster.com/flash/help/index.html?file=Examples/sample_ui/grid_chart_config.html
Thebelow is one of the links....if you see some snazzy looking data charted up in the near future, that might be the ticket that made it possible. HTML code for custom charts.
http://www.flexmonster.com/flash/help/index.html?file=Examples/sample_ui/grid_chart_config.html
10 Minute Chronology of US Financial Times
WHOA! 260 visitors and 1 single little comment (big comment actually, from RDL, a great blogger), but c'mon folks....chime in, look alive :-)
I updated the list below from a December post I did and got a bunch of good comments....so chime in, if there are important things I missed, please comment and I will add.
For me the little summary below was a great "view from 20,000 feet". Imagine that....less than 200 years ago, the British were rampaging through Washington with troops and burning the White House.
If you like this stuff....please sign up as a follower, its a simple click on the right hand side. And you can add Hawaii Trading to your Google Reader, it's good stuff---aggregates your favorite reading material.
1800: New York's population is 60,000
1803: President Thomas Jefferson purchases Louisiana (which extended from the Mississippi to the Rocky Mountains, from Montana to New Orleans) from Napoleon, thus essentially doubling the size of the USA
1812: the USA declares war on Britain
1819: an economic depression hits the farmers of the south and the west
1824: only 5% of adult USA citizens vote in the presidential elections
1826: James Smithson bequeaths his fortune to founding the Smithsonian Institution "for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men"
1844: the USA has over 5,000 kms of railway (3,000 in Britain, 2,000 in Germany, 500 in France)
1851: The population of the USA is 20,067,720 free persons and 2,077,034 slaves
1854: the USA forces Japan to sign a trade agreement ("treaty of Kanagawa") which reopens Japan to foreigners after two centuries
1858: a telegraph wire is laid at the bottom of the ocean between Ireland and Canada
1858: the USA stock market crash spawns an international market crash
1859: The Carrington Solar Flare lights up the night sky and creates havoc with telegraph lines1860: Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln is elected president although he gains only 40% of the popular vote
1861: civil war erupts between the northern ("unionist") states and the southern ("confederate") states (26.2 million versus 8.1 million)
1862: John Rockefeller founds a company to refine oil (later renamed Standard Oil)
1864: all the major powers agree at the Geneva convention on rules for the treatment of prisoners of war
Apr 1865: the Union, led by general Ulysses Grant, defeats the Confederates, slavery is abolished (13th amendment of the constitution) and blacks are given the right to vote (370,000 Union citizens and soldiers and 258,000 Confederate citizens and soldiers have died)
1865: president Lincoln is assassinated
1867: The price of oil drops to $2.40/barrel from the peak of $13.75 a barrel
1869: Goldman Sachs is founded by German immigrant Marcus Goldman and (in 1882) Goldman's son-in-law Samuel Sachs
1871: the National Rifle Association is founded
1876: General Custer and his troops are massacred by Sioux Indians at Little Big Horn
1882: the USA bans Chinese immigrants for ten years and forbids existing Chinese immigrants from becoming USA citizens
1885: white miners kill 28 Chinese workers in Wyoming
1890: The work week in the USA is 60 hours
1890: Congress passes the Anti-Trust Act to protect against monopolies
1892: John Muir founds the "Sierra Club", the first environmental organizations
1900: Life expectancy in the USA is 47.3
1900: the USA's population is 76 million
1902: Willis Carrier invents the air conditioner
1902: a female journalist, Ida-Minerva Tarbell, exposes Standard Oil's dubious practices
1907: The Bankers Panic of 1907 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907 October 23, 1907
1908: William D'Arcy discovers oil in Iran
1909: The USA forces the dissolution of Standard Oil, an event that creates Chevron, Mobil, Amoco, etc
1910-1911 Stock Market Panic after enforcement started of the 1890 Sherman Anti-Monopoly Act-- "Corrupt business is good profitable business :-)"
1912, JP Morgan testified before the Pujo Committee, a subcommittee of the House Banking and Currency committee. The committee ultimately found that a cabal of financial leaders were abusing their public trust to consolidate control over many industries: the partners of J.P. Morgan & Co. along with the directors of First National and National City Bank controlled aggregate resources of $22.245 billion.1913 The Federal Reserve Bank is created. Control of the Money Supply was given to crooked banksters.
1913: John Rockefeller is worth $212 billions, 1/44th of the USA economy, and establishes the Rockefeller Foundation "to promote the well-being of mankind throughout the world"
1913: Ford installs the first assembly line (at Highland Park, which later becomes the murder capital of the world, by the way)
1913: 2% of USA citizens control 60% of the national product (Morgan and Rockefeller alone control 20%)
1914: World War I begins
1916: William Boeing founds a company to manufacture airplanes
1918: an epidemics of influenza kills 20 million people worldwide (500,000 in the USA)
1918: the first world war ends: 2 million Russians, 1.8 million Germans, 1.3 million French, 1.1 million Austro-Hungarians, 0.9 million Britons, 0.6 million Turks and 0.5 million Italians are dead.
1920: alcohol is outlawed ("Prohibition")
1928: first daily passenger flight between Los Angeles and San Francisco
1929: Herbert Hoover is elected president
1930: the Bank of Italy is renamed Bank of America
1930: the GDP of the USA falls 9.4% from the year before and unemployment reaches 8.7%
1931: The price of oil plunges to $0.15/barrel
1931: the Empire State Building, the tallest building in the world of all times, opens in New York
1931: Gambling is legalized in Las Vegas
1933: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is created to insure deposits in banks and thrift institutions
1933: the Prohibition is repealed
1936: The economic ideas of John Maynard Keynes are applied in the USA
1940: Karl Pabst invents the jeep
1941: Japanese attack Pearl Harbor (Hawaii) and the USA enters world war II
1941: Roosevelt authorizes a project to develop an atomic bomb (later renamed the Manhattan Project)
1944: the world's monetary system is anchored to the dollar and the dollar to gold, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are created ("Bretton Woods agreement")
1945: Germany surrenders and is divided in a Western and a Soviet area, while Soviet troops occupy Eastern European countries
1945: the USA drops two atomic bombs on Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and World War II ends
1946: George Marshall envisions a plan to promote the economic recovery of European democracies
Tinfoil hat Alert J
1947: the first widely publicized sighting of a UFO
1947: The USA sets up the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
1948: the Jews are granted their own country in Palestine: Israel
1951: the first commercial computer is built, the Univac
1956: Dwight Eisenhower signs the Federal Aid Highway Act to build a nation-wide network of freeways
1957: 4.5 million babies are born in the USA, the highest number in its history (the "baby boomers")
1958: Bank of America adopts the credit card
1958: the USA's gross national product is 50% of the world's national product
1960: The ratio of debt to personal disposable income is 55%
1962: Warren Buffett acquires Berkshire Hathaway, the beginning of his multibillion dollar empire
1964: Bear Stearns acquires Orkin Exterminating Company, the first major leveraged buyout transactions
1969: the computer network ArpaNET is born in the USA (it will be renamed Internet in 1985)
1971: the USA imports more oil than it exports
1973: members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) impose an oil embargo against the West and oil prices skyrocket (the first "oil crisis"), thus precipitating a world depression (october)
1973: the World Trade Center is inaugurated in New York, the world's tallest skyscraper
1974: the Sears Towers open in Chicago, the world's tallest skyscraper
1975: The USA accounts for 26.3% of world GDP
1978: the USA abandons the gold standard
1979: the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan and the USA organizes an Islamic resistance led by Osama Bin Laden
1979: an accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stops development of new nuclear power plants in the USA
1980: billionaire Ted Turner launches CNN, the first cable tv devoted to world news
1980: The private equity industry raises $2.4 billion
1980: the value of gold peaks at $850 an ounce
1980: Inflation peaks at 13.5%
1981: newly elected president Reagan trades hostages for arms with Iran, helps Saddam Hussein's Iraq against Iran, and authorizes funding and training of Islamic terrorists led by Osama Bin Laden to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan
1982: the USA government breaks up the largest company in the world, AT&T, worth $60 billion, because it has become a monopoly
1982: Unemployment peaks at 10.8%
1985: between 1977 and 1985 consumption of oil in the USA drops 17%, imports drop 50%, and imports from the Middle East drop 87%
1985: the dollar declines against European and Japanese currencies (it will decline 50% in three years)
1987: Alan Greenspan is appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
1987 the largest one day percentage drop ever of the us stock market. 508 points 22.61%1989: The private equity industry raises $21.9 billion
1990 US Banking Crisis
1991: The first economic recession ever strikes California
1995: the Federal Reserve's chairman Alan Greenspan describes the stock market's behavior as "irrational exuberance"
1997: The average yearly income of a USA citizen is $29,000 whereas the average income of a Mexican is $8,000 and the average income of a Nigerian is $900
1998: Osama bin Laden, from his base in Afghanistan, wages a holy war against the USA by bombing two USA embassies in Africa
1999: Blogger.com allows people to create their own "blogs" (personal journals)
2000: More than 50% of USA citizens own stocks
Jan 2000: the Dow Jones reaches an all-time high of 11,723
2001: the USA enters a recession, ending the longest economic expansion of its history
2001: 3% of the USA population is in jail
2002: USA stock markets crash, following corporate scandals, the third consecutive year of decline
Oct 2002: The Dow Jones falls to 7,286, 37.8% lower than its peak of january 2000
2003: the USA has a record 2 million inmates
2004: the dollar falls to an all-time low against the euro (1.30)
2005: Bernard Ebbers, former Worldcom's CEO, is sentenced to 25 years in jail, capping a string of corporate scandals
2006: Alan Greenspan is retires from chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
2006: Exxon Mobil posts the largest profit of any company in USA history
2006: Warren Buffet donates $37 billion to charity, the largest donation ever
2006: Enron's CEO Jeffrey Skilling is sentenced to 24 years in prison
2007: China overtakes the USA to become the world's second largest exporter and overtakes Canada to become the main exporter to the USA
2007: after crashing due to the crisis of sub-prime mortgage lenders, the USA stock market sets a new record high
2007: the USA dollar falls to 1:2 to the British pound and to an all-time low of 1.50 to the euro and is worth less than a Canadian dollar for the first time in three decades
2007: at the end of the economic expansion of the 2000s the median income of USA families has declined from $61,000 to $60,500
Dec 2007: The US
may 2008: USA's home prices drop by 15.8%, the steepest decline in 21 years
june 2008: oil prices pass $140 a barrel
sep 2008: The USA takes over the two largest mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the largest insurance company, American International Group
Aug 2009: The unemployment rate reaches 9.7%, a 26-year high
Nov 2009: The US stock indices stage one of the greatest rallies in history, in the face of horrific fundamentals, 80% of all the increases come from weekend future trading ramp jobs. It becomes widely accepted that Goldman Sachs is in cahoots with the Federal Reserve and the US Gov, to intentionally goose the stock market and bypass normal business cycles.
Mar 2010 The rally continues, unemployment reaches 17% on the U6 measure, foreclosures continue, record deficits become even larger, Europe teeters on debt defaults. Dubai is lurking.
I updated the list below from a December post I did and got a bunch of good comments....so chime in, if there are important things I missed, please comment and I will add.
For me the little summary below was a great "view from 20,000 feet". Imagine that....less than 200 years ago, the British were rampaging through Washington with troops and burning the White House.
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1800: New York's population is 60,000
1803: President Thomas Jefferson purchases Louisiana (which extended from the Mississippi to the Rocky Mountains, from Montana to New Orleans) from Napoleon, thus essentially doubling the size of the USA
1812: the USA declares war on Britain
1814: British troops storm Washington and burn the Capitol and the White House
1817: the New York Stock Exchange opens in Wall Street 1819: an economic depression hits the farmers of the south and the west
1824: only 5% of adult USA citizens vote in the presidential elections
1826: James Smithson bequeaths his fortune to founding the Smithsonian Institution "for the increase and diffusion of knowledge among men"
1837: an economic depression follows a wave of speculation
1839: Yellow fever kills 12% of Houston's population1844: the USA has over 5,000 kms of railway (3,000 in Britain, 2,000 in Germany, 500 in France)
1851: The population of the USA is 20,067,720 free persons and 2,077,034 slaves
1854: the USA forces Japan to sign a trade agreement ("treaty of Kanagawa") which reopens Japan to foreigners after two centuries
1858: a telegraph wire is laid at the bottom of the ocean between Ireland and Canada
1858: the USA stock market crash spawns an international market crash
1859: The Carrington Solar Flare lights up the night sky and creates havoc with telegraph lines1860: Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln is elected president although he gains only 40% of the popular vote
1861: civil war erupts between the northern ("unionist") states and the southern ("confederate") states (26.2 million versus 8.1 million)
1862: John Rockefeller founds a company to refine oil (later renamed Standard Oil)
1864: all the major powers agree at the Geneva convention on rules for the treatment of prisoners of war
Apr 1865: the Union, led by general Ulysses Grant, defeats the Confederates, slavery is abolished (13th amendment of the constitution) and blacks are given the right to vote (370,000 Union citizens and soldiers and 258,000 Confederate citizens and soldiers have died)
1865: president Lincoln is assassinated
1867: The price of oil drops to $2.40/barrel from the peak of $13.75 a barrel
1869: Goldman Sachs is founded by German immigrant Marcus Goldman and (in 1882) Goldman's son-in-law Samuel Sachs
1871: the National Rifle Association is founded
1873: an economic depression causes rise in unemployment and bankruptcies\
1873: the USA adopts the gold standard1876: General Custer and his troops are massacred by Sioux Indians at Little Big Horn
1882: the USA bans Chinese immigrants for ten years and forbids existing Chinese immigrants from becoming USA citizens
1885: white miners kill 28 Chinese workers in Wyoming
1890: The work week in the USA is 60 hours
1890: Congress passes the Anti-Trust Act to protect against monopolies
1892: John Muir founds the "Sierra Club", the first environmental organizations
1893: an economic depression causes unemployment and bankruptcies, The Panic of 1893 in which the Federal Treasury was nearly out of Gold.
1900: A six-room house costs $3,000 to buy1900: Life expectancy in the USA is 47.3
1900: the USA's population is 76 million
1902: Willis Carrier invents the air conditioner
1902: a female journalist, Ida-Minerva Tarbell, exposes Standard Oil's dubious practices
1907: The Bankers Panic of 1907 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907 October 23, 1907
1908: William D'Arcy discovers oil in Iran
1909: The USA forces the dissolution of Standard Oil, an event that creates Chevron, Mobil, Amoco, etc
1910-1911 Stock Market Panic after enforcement started of the 1890 Sherman Anti-Monopoly Act-- "Corrupt business is good profitable business :-)"
1912, JP Morgan testified before the Pujo Committee, a subcommittee of the House Banking and Currency committee. The committee ultimately found that a cabal of financial leaders were abusing their public trust to consolidate control over many industries: the partners of J.P. Morgan & Co. along with the directors of First National and National City Bank controlled aggregate resources of $22.245 billion.1913 The Federal Reserve Bank is created. Control of the Money Supply was given to crooked banksters.
1913: John Rockefeller is worth $212 billions, 1/44th of the USA economy, and establishes the Rockefeller Foundation "to promote the well-being of mankind throughout the world"
1913: Ford installs the first assembly line (at Highland Park, which later becomes the murder capital of the world, by the way)
1913: 2% of USA citizens control 60% of the national product (Morgan and Rockefeller alone control 20%)
1914: World War I begins
1914: The Federal income tax is introduced
1916: Merrill Lynch is founded1916: William Boeing founds a company to manufacture airplanes
1918: an epidemics of influenza kills 20 million people worldwide (500,000 in the USA)
1918: the first world war ends: 2 million Russians, 1.8 million Germans, 1.3 million French, 1.1 million Austro-Hungarians, 0.9 million Britons, 0.6 million Turks and 0.5 million Italians are dead.
1920: alcohol is outlawed ("Prohibition")
1924: boom of the stock market
1927: Pan American World Airways is founded1928: first daily passenger flight between Los Angeles and San Francisco
1929: Herbert Hoover is elected president
1929: stock markets crash around the world ("great depression")
1929: the richest 1% owns 40% of the nation's wealth, while workers' productivity has increased 43% since 19191930: the Bank of Italy is renamed Bank of America
1930: the GDP of the USA falls 9.4% from the year before and unemployment reaches 8.7%
1931: The price of oil plunges to $0.15/barrel
1931: the Empire State Building, the tallest building in the world of all times, opens in New York
1931: Gambling is legalized in Las Vegas
1932: between april 8 and july 8 stocks fall 34%
1932: 10,000 banks have failed since 1929, GDP has dropped 31% since 1929, the stock market has lost almost 90% of its value from boom to bust, and unemployment reaches 23.6%1933: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is created to insure deposits in banks and thrift institutions
1933: the Prohibition is repealed
1936: The economic ideas of John Maynard Keynes are applied in the USA
1940: Karl Pabst invents the jeep
1941: Japanese attack Pearl Harbor (Hawaii) and the USA enters world war II
1941: Roosevelt authorizes a project to develop an atomic bomb (later renamed the Manhattan Project)
1944: the world's monetary system is anchored to the dollar and the dollar to gold, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are created ("Bretton Woods agreement")
1945: Germany surrenders and is divided in a Western and a Soviet area, while Soviet troops occupy Eastern European countries
1945: the USA drops two atomic bombs on Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and World War II ends
1946: George Marshall envisions a plan to promote the economic recovery of European democracies
Tinfoil hat Alert J
1947: the first widely publicized sighting of a UFO
1947: The USA sets up the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
1948: the Jews are granted their own country in Palestine: Israel
1951: the first commercial computer is built, the Univac
1956: Dwight Eisenhower signs the Federal Aid Highway Act to build a nation-wide network of freeways
1957: 4.5 million babies are born in the USA, the highest number in its history (the "baby boomers")
1958: Bank of America adopts the credit card
1958: the USA's gross national product is 50% of the world's national product
1960: The ratio of debt to personal disposable income is 55%
1962: Warren Buffett acquires Berkshire Hathaway, the beginning of his multibillion dollar empire
1964: Bear Stearns acquires Orkin Exterminating Company, the first major leveraged buyout transactions
1969: the computer network ArpaNET is born in the USA (it will be renamed Internet in 1985)
1971: the USA imports more oil than it exports
1971: The USA pulls out of the Bretton Woods agreement of fixed exchange rates and forces foreign currencies to float
1973: the USA, defeated, leaves Vietnam after killing close to 2 million civilians and 1 million soldiers, and losing 58,000 men1973: members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) impose an oil embargo against the West and oil prices skyrocket (the first "oil crisis"), thus precipitating a world depression (october)
1973: the World Trade Center is inaugurated in New York, the world's tallest skyscraper
1974: the Sears Towers open in Chicago, the world's tallest skyscraper
1975: The USA accounts for 26.3% of world GDP
1978: the USA abandons the gold standard
1979: the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan and the USA organizes an Islamic resistance led by Osama Bin Laden
1979: an accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant stops development of new nuclear power plants in the USA
1980: billionaire Ted Turner launches CNN, the first cable tv devoted to world news
1980: The private equity industry raises $2.4 billion
1980: the value of gold peaks at $850 an ounce
1980: Inflation peaks at 13.5%
1981: newly elected president Reagan trades hostages for arms with Iran, helps Saddam Hussein's Iraq against Iran, and authorizes funding and training of Islamic terrorists led by Osama Bin Laden to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan
1982: the USA government breaks up the largest company in the world, AT&T, worth $60 billion, because it has become a monopoly
1982: Unemployment peaks at 10.8%
1985: between 1977 and 1985 consumption of oil in the USA drops 17%, imports drop 50%, and imports from the Middle East drop 87%
1985: the dollar declines against European and Japanese currencies (it will decline 50% in three years)
1987: Alan Greenspan is appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
1987 the largest one day percentage drop ever of the us stock market. 508 points 22.61%1989: The private equity industry raises $21.9 billion
1990 US Banking Crisis
1991: The first economic recession ever strikes California
1993: Islamic terrorists try to blow up the World Trade Center
1994: Netscape, the company founded by Marc Andreesen, goes public even before earning money and starts the "dot.com" craze and the boom of the Nasdaq1995: the Federal Reserve's chairman Alan Greenspan describes the stock market's behavior as "irrational exuberance"
1997: The average yearly income of a USA citizen is $29,000 whereas the average income of a Mexican is $8,000 and the average income of a Nigerian is $900
1998: Osama bin Laden, from his base in Afghanistan, wages a holy war against the USA by bombing two USA embassies in Africa
1999: Blogger.com allows people to create their own "blogs" (personal journals)
2000: More than 50% of USA citizens own stocks
Jan 2000: the Dow Jones reaches an all-time high of 11,723
2000: the economic expansion in the USA is the longest in the history of the US
2000: the NASDAQ stock market crashes, wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth
2000: George W Bush becomes president on a technicality, even though Clinton's vice-president Al Gore wins the majority of votes2001: the USA enters a recession, ending the longest economic expansion of its history
2001: 3% of the USA population is in jail
2002: USA stock markets crash, following corporate scandals, the third consecutive year of decline
Oct 2002: The Dow Jones falls to 7,286, 37.8% lower than its peak of january 2000
2003: the USA has a record 2 million inmates
2004: the dollar falls to an all-time low against the euro (1.30)
2005: Bernard Ebbers, former Worldcom's CEO, is sentenced to 25 years in jail, capping a string of corporate scandals
2006: Alan Greenspan is retires from chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank
2006: Exxon Mobil posts the largest profit of any company in USA history
2006: Warren Buffet donates $37 billion to charity, the largest donation ever
2006: Enron's CEO Jeffrey Skilling is sentenced to 24 years in prison
2007: China overtakes the USA to become the world's second largest exporter and overtakes Canada to become the main exporter to the USA
2007: after crashing due to the crisis of sub-prime mortgage lenders, the USA stock market sets a new record high
2007: the USA dollar falls to 1:2 to the British pound and to an all-time low of 1.50 to the euro and is worth less than a Canadian dollar for the first time in three decades
2007: at the end of the economic expansion of the 2000s the median income of USA families has declined from $61,000 to $60,500
Dec 2007: The US
jan 2008: the stock market collapses, triggering similar collapses around the world
mar 2008: the price of gold hits $1,000 for the first time ever and oil passes $110 a barrel, while the dollar sets another all-time low against the euro (1.56) and dips below 100 yen (a drop of 6.5% in less than three months), home prices plunge 9.1%, the Eurozone overtakes the USA as the world's largest economymay 2008: USA's home prices drop by 15.8%, the steepest decline in 21 years
june 2008: oil prices pass $140 a barrel
sep 2008: The USA takes over the two largest mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the largest insurance company, American International Group
sep 2008: In a financial crisis, Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch is sold to Bank of America, the two remaining investment banks in the United States, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, decide to become traditional banks, and the government buys $700 billion of bad mortgages in the largest financial bailout since the Great Depression, and on September 29 the Dow Jones loses 778 points, the biggest single-day point loss ever
oct 2008: the Dow Jones loses more 22% in a week of continuous losses, including the biggest single-day decline since 1987
Jul 2009: The USA budget deficit tops $1 trillionAug 2009: The unemployment rate reaches 9.7%, a 26-year high
Nov 2009: The US stock indices stage one of the greatest rallies in history, in the face of horrific fundamentals, 80% of all the increases come from weekend future trading ramp jobs. It becomes widely accepted that Goldman Sachs is in cahoots with the Federal Reserve and the US Gov, to intentionally goose the stock market and bypass normal business cycles.
Mar 2010 The rally continues, unemployment reaches 17% on the U6 measure, foreclosures continue, record deficits become even larger, Europe teeters on debt defaults. Dubai is lurking.
Earthquakes and Moons, Keep an Eye Out for March 15, and April 1
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This earthquake stuff is interesting.
Haiti happened on the Eclipse
Chile on the full moon.
Full or no moon means the sun, moon, and earth are all in aline. That changes the gravitational forces.
The average number of 4+ earthquakes since around 1980 is 240 per week.
We are in a quiet zone right now.
Mass human hysteria can be a kicker to the Global mass psychosis that Daneric has so aptly named. And don't even get me going on sunspots.....the experts have no idea what they are doing, or at least if they do, they are good at keeping secrets.
This earthquake stuff is interesting.
Haiti happened on the Eclipse
Chile on the full moon.
Full or no moon means the sun, moon, and earth are all in aline. That changes the gravitational forces.
The average number of 4+ earthquakes since around 1980 is 240 per week.
We are in a quiet zone right now.
Total market knocking it's head against the 161 Fib
The 161 Fib Stopped this market before, maybe this will be a double top. However, market breadth (percent of issues advancing was like 11 to 13 Adv/Dec) That is scary strong if you are a bear.
Fear Factor - flyaway gap
VIX directly affects my "Fear Factor". Vix did a gap down, and FF did a gap up.
Went short into the weekend, Euro is up, meaning dollar is down, and maybe that "one way street correlation" means equities up. Futures will tell us something shortly.
However, I do anticipate at least a temporary 1 to 3 days down. But ready to exit positions quickly also.
Went short into the weekend, Euro is up, meaning dollar is down, and maybe that "one way street correlation" means equities up. Futures will tell us something shortly.
However, I do anticipate at least a temporary 1 to 3 days down. But ready to exit positions quickly also.
Bears have thrown in the towel (and bonus AUD FX Chart)
Only 36,000 Us citizens lost their jobs, and that was represented as "reeeeeally good".
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/harry-reid-only-36000-lost-their-jobs/2360
This is a broken clock. Bad means good, High debts mean stimulate more to encourage growth so debt can be absorbed.
All fiat currency is at risk, timing is the only decision.
Above chart by commenter Ultra
Lifted from "Ultra's" Site.
Go Visit, its easy. Go to comments, click on his avatar, then click on blog and it takes you there. It works this way on all Disqus comment systems.
But their are two sides to every trade. I haven't really followed the AUD pairs much, so i don't know how they react to classic patterns like HS IHS. I do know that EUR/USD frequently throws the HS and IHS under the bus....it just ignores them 90% of the time.
If you are short AUD, as always you should keep that tightly reined in with a stop.
Steveo out.
Ritzholtz on greed, wallstreet, and why financial world blew up
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2010/03/ritholtz_on_bai.html
Check out the MP3, over an hour long.
Maybe burn to a CD and listen in your car on your drive into work.
Check out the MP3, over an hour long.
Maybe burn to a CD and listen in your car on your drive into work.
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