Saturday, March 26, 2011

Nuclear Straight Talk Japan

I thought one of the best sites "went dark", in fact they started a new tabbed "page" on their blog, here it is

In fact, I will also add this to my specialty blog page for Japan Nuclear.    It may be the biggest story of the decade or more.    Check the blue tabs at the top of Hawaii Trading blog, and drop a comment OK, is anyone out their reading or am I just wasting my time? 

Seriously, if I see no comments, a click through means almost nothing.

Deception or honest reporting?

When I read the above I think....F'n BS What do you think?

Long Term S&P "Egg" aka Ellipse of Doom

This submitted by a reader.   Wow. 
The incredible Egg.

Please comment and please klik

LIes, Damn Lies, and being Human

People fool themselves, and when they do that, they are operating in the most dangerous of arena's.   It is some part of our brain/mind that somehow "rewards us" for maintaining a wrong belief.   I don't have the answer to that one yet, but it is important.    More immediately important is recognizing when you are about to do that to yourself.   "Knowing for fact, what ain't so" is indeed a very dangerous trait.   I think Will Rogers and Ken Fisher chimed in similar to that.
Example---the big lie being told how, and without clarification by the media (shame on them) is that in 8 days, radioactive iodine becomes safe.    BIG LIE.    8 days is the half life of Radioactive Iodine.   That means half goes away in 8 day, then in 16 days, it is 1/4, 24=1/8, 32 = 1/16
40=1/32, 48=1/64, 56=1/128

So if the rate is now 1250 time the safety limit then in 56 days (1/128) it will be still over 10 times over the safety limit!!!!!   that is if no new radiation is added.   Obviously there is a reactor core leak, they are at least weeks away solving the leak.   Where are the Robots!?

This from a news article: The BIG LIE
Levels of radioactive iodine in the sea near the tsunami-stricken Fukushima nuclear plant are 1,250 times higher than the safety limit, officials say.
The readings were taken about 300m (984ft) offshore. It is feared the radiation could be seeping into groundwater from one of the reactors.
But the radiation will no longer be a risk after eight days, officials say.

Here is my real point---there will be a certain number of people who read the above, and because they are already thinking that the radiation risk is overblown, their "theory" will be confirmed and they will taunt, belittle, and laugh at those with the tin-foil hat.   By the way, tin-foil by itself will not protect you from radiation :-)  

Please chime in with your own comments and thoughts.

Friday, March 25, 2011

New Sources Disappearing Rapidly

My 2 best sources for Japan Radiation news have both disappeared in the last 2 hours,

Reuters moderated blog, and USTREAM (however NHK world continues see link at bottom...this plays to my worst expectations so far...radiation is getting so high they cannot even get close to the fixed pumps.    At some point, it may be robots only fighting as best they can, controlled from 500 M away.

Situations like this should not be fought reactively, this fight is a black eye, even though admittedly that Japan was hit with 3 disasters all at once, however, once the hand is dealt, play it smart.   Not reactive.   All of the resources of the world are available and yet "we" cannot bring them to bear properly on the problem.

Tin Foil hats anyone?   And did you know that there was a huge US monetary supply injection today, looking like 2008 again?  Check Zero Hedge, now on my  bloglist---they made the big time :)

Hmmm....the slow motion train wreck in Sendai may be "picking up steam" so to speak. 

I went long USD future last night, based on...who the heck knows, but it was sure perfect timing for a nice pop upwards, counterintuitive with the huge money injection today.

Nuclear Ginza

8 Minutes, worth a watch.   

"All their stories were the same, they had no idea what happened to them" at the plant.

part 2 and 3 below

Last Rant on the Nukes

After more extensive reading last night, The GE Mark 1 reactor (shouldn't the "1" worry you?), was an initial design that was quickly upgraded a few times.   There was even a retrofit recommended for the mark 1, but no one can say whether that retrofit was conducted at Fukushima.

Okay, take a hit with the 2x4 between the eyes.   The containment "vessel" is built to withstand 70PSI, although they are not tested to 70 PSI.   However when tests were done to 70 PSI, the lid actually lifted off, and an o ring type seal let the pressure (radiation) escape.   After 40 years...wonder how good those O-rings are?

Here is the 2x4 between your eyes.....your water heater at your house is tested to 150PSI and will probably withstand alot more, like 300 to 500 PSI.    From the world of WTF?!!

Your household water heater is built to higher standards than the nuclear containment vessel.   Contact your congressman for and Mark 1,2, 3, or 4 reactors in your neighborhood.   This is a joke, and very bad and dangerous joke.

Russell Crows for a 78 Pop

Mission Accomplished, the 78 fibo was popped and shorts were crushed.   Looks like 5 down 3 up to me.

Taking a short here could become a "corium" position.  OK enough of Japan crisis for now.

The ES chart was from last night....the most flat I have ever seen it

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Donation to Japan

OK, enough whining and ranting, Hawaii Trading made a donation of 15,000 Japan Airline Miles to help Japan recovery.

Japan airlines turns each mile into a Yen and donates the Yen to the "Red Feather Community Chest Movement", kind of like American Red Cross, and very popular with people in Japan.  See Below Link.

Please think about donating in some way. 

BBQ Pizza and Happiness

What a combination, brought to your door by

A pizza tray that you can use over an open fire or gas grill, how cool is that? 

Note the bottom flat plates below the pizza tray to prevent bottom burning.

And if that doesn't create happiness get some advice from the Dalai Lama -- who recently just retired, huh?   I guess you have to actually be really smart if you are the Dalai Lama and you choose to retire.    He sold a bunch of books, so maybe he is all set on the pension front.   Hope he bought Gold.

It's morning in Tokyo, clock on the right ----F50, American Heroes

It is morning in Tokyo, lets see what today brings, there is a boatload of posts related to Japan, and the best of the best links for you.   I am a bit obsessed with this, but it could very well turn into something even worse than it is already.  I added a clock on the left for Tokyo, and for London for you nighttime Forex or Futures players.

One client who did some Photovoltaic with Outback battery backup system, wants to expand his system.   He is an American warrior, fighting in Afghanistan.   He says, sorry I am taking so long to get back to you on the next contract, it's fighting season over here, we lost 4 of our bomb techs in the last 2 weeks"

OK, so that brings it home like a kidney punch from a MMA expert.

What price will we pay for energy?   It seems like we are willing to pay very high prices.   I make 90% of all my energy, and plan to increase that to about 120%. 

The Fukushima 50 is really more like 300 now.   Many of these men will die within a year or so.   5 are rumored to be dead already.  500 milli-SV/Hour was reported yesterday.   That is like 200 years of natural radiation absorbed into your body in 1 hour.   

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Moon +3 Rule of Thumb, and Japan Links

Big moves seem to come 1 to 3 days after a moon, when they do come.   Sometimes the markets shrug off the moon like it never happened.   And from observation, new moons freak people out a bit more than full moons.   That is the anthropology in my SEA theory of living being interaction and markets.

Here is a Geiger Counter in Tokyo, last 2 days, obvious increases, although still fractions of a micro SV

Report of radioactive iodine in Tokyo water.  Apparently charcoal filters do a good job of removing this, not confirmed.   Hurts infants the most.   The reporters/gov spokespeople choose their words carefully....if bottled water is not available, giving this water to infant will not be immediately damaging.

Got it?

This is the best news source, like a twitter blog, but moderated so the real boneheads are kicked out and some meaningful discussion, and links are shared.   One guy is a 37 year experienced nuclear plant operator, with no ax to grind.

Picture of plant 4, the one an engineer "came clean" on saying he had helped to cover up reaction vessel defects decades ago.
Aerial view, of I think 2 or 3

Think Tank from another blogger.

This intermittent steam and or smoke. Hmmm, doesn't sound good to me. Seems to me like partial fires on fuel tubes probably as the spent fuel ponds. But the person below put together a cohesive "think tank" approach to what is going on in those tanks. And as the information from the Gov becomes more scarce, keep in mind that the prime brainwashing of bureaucrats everywhere is "make sure people don't panic" whatever the cost. People shouldn't panic, they should leave Tokyo before it becomes impossible to leave. Before the Government issues an order for all people to "stay in your houses, our experts have advised us that is the safest course of action".

Reuters Article stating 500mSV (thats like 200 years of normal radiation in 1 hour for a human body)

And a quick aside....There are 20 different radioactive products that can mess up humans, iodine protects against only 1 type, radioactive iodine. Having some iodine could provide some type of false sense of security, and eating salt won't even start to get the protection in place.

The following comment "lifted" from Zerohedge comment log. Why--because they pretty much nailed a plausible explanation.  What surprised me a little at the number of other bloggers who attacked this guy, because they disputed the validity of the thermal images.   So what?  The macro-picture that is being admitted, intermittent smoke and steam still is congruent with his possible explanation.    I do agree though the title "blistering heat" as it applies 128C is an exaggeration, 128C is roughly 270F or so, blistering would be 700F which I heard reported on a news channel for one of the reactors inner containment vessel.   Does it really matter which one?   If any one piece "goes off" in a serious way, it will make the site all but unworkable, then the only fixes will be by suicide runs.   We hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

This comment comes with support of thermal imaging shown here

This is so disappointing. A forum of supposedly smart people, and the major arguments are over what temp water boils at, whether there is/is-not any water in the SFPs, or the spent rods are/are-not exposed and burning.

But in reality, this is not an either-or situation. The rod assemblies are quite long - I forget the figure, but it was something like 12 to 18 feet. Standing upright in an originally much deeper pool of water.
OK, so without cooling the pool water temp rises, till it reaches boiling point (100 deg C at 1 atm, since it's open to the air.) The water level begins to fall as steam boils off. This goes on for some time. Eventually, the water level gets down to the tops of the rods. Oh and don't forget, the pools certainly have a pile of building rubble fallen into them as well, but that won't alter the behavior much. Apart from hiding the water level from view.

Now what happens? The tops of the rods, emerging from the water, start to heat above 100 degC. But there's still steam passing them, and conduction of heat to the lower rod section still in water. So the exposed rods don't reach melting/burning temp yet. BUT, the steam passing them does get heated over 100 degC. Steam can reach any temp, up to the point the H and O dissociate. Hence we can have steam clouds rising that are over 100 degC, IF there are exposed rods.
As more length of the rods are exposed, some areas may not have steam passing (convection, downdrafts of air, air travelling sideways among the rod assemblies, etc.) Also the longer the distance down to the immersed rod sections, the less heat loss via downwards conduction in the metal tube walls. So overall, the lower the water, the greater the potential for upper sections of rods to reach bursting & combustion temp. Eventually, sections of tubes will combust.

But it will be an intermittent process. The greater heat output as areas of rods catch fire will draw updrafts of steam into the area from lower down, and may extinguish that fire. Causing another area to combust, that previously was in a steam updraft.
Also the overlying rubble will create areas of increased heat accumulation - but as rod bundles burn and collapse the rubble pile sitting on top of the rods will shift and settle.

With the probability of a rubble pile atop the rods in the pools, and the water level well below all that, I'd imagine that what we are seeing with the thermal images (if they aren't fakes) would be temps of rubble and steam only - thus hot spots at points where steam updrafts are rising through the rubble. With this process the temperatures can be anywhere from mildly warm to well over 100 degC, because what you're seeing is the 'mixed' temp of steam that has been rising through steel and concrete debris plus mixing with cooler pulled-in air. The only information it gives, is that if it is ABOVE 100 degC, there MUST be rod combustion going on. If there wasn't, the updraft would be 100 degC (boiling temp only) or less. If cooler, steam would have condensed back out to water, leaving rising hot air. But objects in the path of the rising steam would rapidly be heated to steam-temp, hence the visible steam clouds.

Anyway, the 128 degC spot tells me there are rod tops exposed sufficiently for them to burn. And the apparently random radiation spikes suggests the burning is occurring in bursts, just as I'd expect it to.

Incidentally, with upper sections of rods exposed and burning at high temps in air-steam, there will be reactions of oxygen from the steam reacting with the zirconium tubes, leaving H gas. Which may intermittently combust explosively in the vicinity. Another commenter in this thread mentioned ongoing random explosions heard. If true this also indicates exposed and burning fuel rods.

One more thing that will be happening - as the rod tubing burns and disintegrates, the ceramic fuel pellets will be falling out and down to where ever they can fall to. Some of them will undoubtedly make it to the bottom of the pool. Others will rest at the zone in which the rods are burning and disintegrating above the top of the remaining water. So, some piles of accumulating pellets in water, others out of water. An experiment in which will achieve criticality first. With random small hydrogen explosions occuring in the mess of rubble, burning zirconium and jumbled fuel pellets, there'll be plenty of confgurations being tried on for size.

What we are absolutely NOT seeing in the thermal images, is anything to do with the reactor pressure vessel temperature. The top of the pressure vessel is at the bottom of the same pool as the spent fuel, assuming all the dams between different sections of the pool were destroyed or at least made leaky. So the pressure vessel is under both the rubble, AND the water still remaining in the pool. We are not seeing spent fuel rod temps either. Just the end product in hot rising gasses of a very complex system.

Summary: It's not over yet. This is an ongong process that can suddenly go much worse at any moment. And probably will.

Action: Need to get water back into those pools, fast. Expend lives if it can help. Manually drag a hose to the SFP edge if at all possible, even if it takes multiple suicide teams. Or heli-drop a weighted hose end into the rubble above the pool.
Only if the pools can be refilled before a criticality occurs (which might burn through to the reactor pressure vessel(s)) is there any hope of getting this under control. MUST cover the spent fuel in water, to stop outgassing of radioactives, before any possibility of local decontamination and facility gradual dismantlement is possible.

In my opinion, entombment of this sized site, with 4 reactor pressure vessels in various states, 4 spent fuel pools up high and the site directly by the sea, is not possible. NOT POSSIBLE. It's worse than trying to rebuild the Egyptian pyramids.
People talking of entombment are grasping at a straw, because it has 'been done before' and because they can't face the possibility that there is no such solution here.

An aside. There are two collossal failures being demonstrated by this nuclear disaster. One was the poor design choices- backup diesels in the basement, fuel tanks at the water's edge, and spent fuel pools at the top of the 6 story reactor building, thus guaranteeing any difficult situation became an insoluble disaster.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Fear Factor, 1, 2, 3, 4 (Boatload O' Fear)

My take is we go up from here. "Lessening" bad news, resumption of the necessary Ponzi, and wouldn't it just be nice to be bullish knowing that Big Gov got your back? It would be a nice break. Too bad the end game remains the same.

Here are four looks at Fear and 2 looks at ACT (Asset Class Total)

Trading Forex good fills on small spreads, and low commissions let you run tight enough stops without being bled dry by a few stop outs.   Interactive Brokers seems to lead the pack, although their charting is kind of weak.

Japan Radiation

This is good news, a graphic description of real data of radiation readings through out Japan, compared to normal times (min and max).   Check it out.

However that said, very little news from the plant, just more smoke of unknown origin at 2 and 3 (both quite blown up), no reports of the actual radiation levels.   I do not take that as good news.   They might have to bury 2 and 3 in concrete (which makes a mess that you basically can't touch again, forever), in order to work on 1 and 4.

Good luck to them!  Gambate!

The limit for workers exposure is 250 milli-SV per hour (raised from 100 just lately).    Civilian get around 2.5 milli-SV per year.    So if on site at maximum allowable radiation, that worker is receiving a lifetime of radiation in 1 hour, each hour they stay.    People will and have sacrificed their lives for the good of their country and their children.

Various form of radiation are produced, it gets tricky.   But the real answer is simple ---it's all bad, just a matter of how bad.

Euro and Nasdaq complete upward move simultanously - BULLISH

Awoooo, Werewolves of London....Awooo!  PICTURE of moon taken by Steveo, March 19, 2011, Oahu, Hawaii

When the moon does act (this super moon over the weekend) it tends to be a few days after the moon.

These are about as clearcut as channels get.   Sunday was an obvious round of "futures support", well of course, indices were up all over based on "less bad news".   Quite the bullish long as a nuclear meltdown doesn't occur, party like it's 1999!    Hooowah!

Not often do you see a perfect touch of the channel line down to .01 cents or perfect.    Euro did that.

After getting beat up on ES short futures over the weekend...I closed on Sunday, however, started shorts on NQ and EUR/USD at close of trading based on these channels.

Comment on the Disaster in Japan

From another blog----same type of questions I have been asking.   The Japanese people know that their government has let them down.  Sure, it is a lot to handle, but these things are basic.   


Why weren't diesel generators/batteries helicoptered in on Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Day 4...? CH 47 load is 19,500 lbs, easily lifting generators.
Tokyo is only 250Km. A ship carrying a generator could have made it to Fukushima in 1/2 day.
The 5 man crew in my small town electric company strings 1 mile of line in a day. Why wasn't this task started on Day 1?
Of the pictures released of Fukushima plant, I see NO EVIDENCE of the Tsunami reaching the plant. No mud/debris/water lines. No junk scattered on top of things around the plant. (Only the explosion's debris.
For Americans watching crime shows their entire lives, it sure seems Americans have NOT learned the most basic detective skills. I give no EXCUSE for the Corporate Reporters for not asking these questions!

The state of journalism in America has reached new lows.

However I have a bone to pick with this author---this before and after picture shows lots of stuff swept away, and plenty of mud.   So yes they did get hit.   Now this will make your blood boil---they designed the diesel tanks to supply all the backup equipment and place the 2 tanks just yards from the water.   That is amazing, the tanks were taken away by the tsunami.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Smoke from Number 3, Smoke from the Euro, Murderous Mammals, and Readiness

Update, 4:10 AM- This story is out on the wires now and TEPCO has made a very brief statement including the note that the amount of the smoke seems to be reducing and that fire authorities have been notified. Still developing; source of smoke not yet clear at all.

 I have long the animals, when they really start going off, then the decline time is near.  They know we have been jacking up this planet.
And this showed up as an ad on my blog...I checked it out, looks pretty good actually.   How to manage your time while preparing for anarchy.

Euro looks like toast

The real long term, and the real short term say the run is over.   

Now let's have the media make up some news to explain that.....


You can email me directly at stock

I received this email from a reader, questioning whether Breakpoint Trades provides good guidance, or else do they "pull an Elliot Wave International" or really any of the other services out there that "are never wrong".

I don’t know if you pay close attention to BPT advice, I know you like them. He does great work.

He gave a FEED buy last year on a basic trend line break – it was long term.

You bought in around 2.35 and got out not too much later. FEED is now below 2.00.

Was there ever a stop on that trade from BPT or do they do one side – entry only?

Any recollection?
Here is some of the answer.   Bottom line -- BPT gets the job done.   I posted my short trade on FEED long as a quick trade that more than paid for a 6 month membership...then the rest is gravy.

Earthquake Prediction

Quick Post on Astro

This is a cool gadget that purports to show the planets relative positions.  It makes it easy to understand Arch Crawford's current take on things

 On April 3, there will be a Mars/Uranus conjunction ON THE PLACE of Uranus in the Cardinal Climax chart - touching off the whole damned thing in a really powerful way!
 Every contact with it so far has brought devastating natural disasters.
20 Million were displaced from their homes by WATER in Pakistan and China the week of the original CC.
 When Eclipses activated it in late Dec - early Jan = 22 towns were Under Water in Australia.
 The Uranus touches the Zero Cardinal degree March 11, and WHAM!
 That's is a tremendously powerful record to date for the CC!

 Thinkorswim (now owned by the evil empire), issued 5 updates in 2 weeks.   Every update brings problems.  Now TOS takes off my monitors and won't let other applications be displayed until you minimize TOS.   Amazing.    I use them for charts, not for trading anymore.