Saturday, January 9, 2010

Bill Gross doesnt like to lie, but he will when he has to.

Read this, important stuff.   Gross had to sell his soul to get Fed to get them to buy his housing losses.  Then he pumped that money into treasuries and corporate bonds....thus they are "PIMPCO'd"  they are overvalued.

M3 is back and it shows deflation already in progress

Bears and Tigers and Vampires, oh my....

It's tough to be a bear these days.  Fear of missing out on "the upcoming rally", is just part of the fear and greed that drives the market.

And its the year of the Tiger, but Tiger Woods might feel different about that, he feels more like a Cheetah!

And lastly, last year we were pimping out the idea that a fascination with the Macabre including Vampires was a sign of a dark social mood.   Check this link.
Keep an eye on Bonds.

PIMCO is trying to scare people out of equities---and thus "diversify" into bonds.  PIMCO sold its soul to the devil last year.

Bonds can be crushed, check out TBT.

Now, we will go hiking to Manoa Falls, a tall waterfall just 20 minutes from Downtown Honolulu.
Clear your head, don't let the spin-meisters get into it.   

It's hard to do -- this game is for all the money in the world-- and the oligarchy of our financial overlords, the corporately controlled mass media, and many governments all have vested interests that are opposite to your own interests.
When this rally starts to seem "believable", is when it will tragically turn.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

So many great bloggers out there posting breakout stocks

Let me say once again....this is a TOP, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, but soon enough.

No need to go short.  And if you daytrade, you could go might catch some parabola's at the top or you might still have 10% up to go, or 30%. 

This is as toppy as it ever gets....

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Don't Bite on the Nikkei, Yet Says this 1 YO Puppy

This is our Mascot.  Don't bite on the Nikkei short yet!

Home Prices - Good Data (from a realtor, my Lord now I have seen everything)

I thought these charts were really good.  See if you can find some like this for your area and post 'em up.

Hawaii is of course, not well correlated to the mainland US.  

Summary--Prices have dropped a little.  Tax break is definitely a shot in the arm, using up inventory.  No one new is listing their place though....either they are so far underwater they CANNOT TAKE the loss, or they are so greedy they think prices may rocket up on demand. 

Reversion beyond the mean implies LOTS of pain left.

Like this stuff?   Sign up as follower and/or put on your reader.

Bond Charts LQD Bearish Engulfing

I am not entirely sure what to make of this, LQD the Investment quality bonds looks poised for a beating, and JNK junk bonds look parabolic up.

Could the high quality bonds tank before the junk bonds?  Marketsniper says dig the french curve out of your old drafting kit, and put that on the parabolic prices....will guide you to the top.

Parabolic never ends well, but putting yourself short in front of it can be hazardous if you can't take the short term pain.  Margin clerks do their job like robots.  Or that email "you are in a Fed Call", stinks.

Central Bankers Need More Stimulus.....

TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama accepted the resignation of his ailing finance minister, who was hospitalized for exhaustion while preparing stimulus measures to address the economic slowdown.
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, 77, will be replaced by Hatoyama's deputy Naoto Kan.
Fujii, who has a history of high blood pressure, spent several tough weeks late last year churning out a record 92.29 billion yen ($1 trillion) budget. The government is also trying to pass a 7.2 trillion yen ($78 billion) stimulus package.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average closed up 0.5 percent, at a new 15-month high of 10,731.45 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.6 percent, South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.9 percent, Australia's benchmark advanced 0.2 percent and Singapore's market gained 0.2 percent. China's Shanghai index dropped 0.9 percent.

From "Excite" News

The USD carry trade, what a beautiful joke/farce/trap, And GET REAL

OK, here how it plays....
HBB and its affililates, the news agencies of the US and elsewhere, talk up the USD carry borrowing cheap in USD and then sending money elsewhere to earn greater interest rates (aka return, aka margin, aka yield), is the new thing.

Let's say that enough people get in on that, during this wave 2 consolidation of the dollar.   When wave three hits....dollar skyrockets, and people bailout out of that carry trade at all costs.....Wow.

Just say you saw it here first.....the blasphemy of the carry trade...unless you know the game.

And GET REAL--how could this "rally" possibly play out differently.   At the point-beyond the point- of everyones reality curve.   People are in disgust.  Most real know there is a Ponzi scheme going on, but they are willing enough to play along.  Even the fundamentalist technical traders....ouch....

The game is over, get long or never go will miss the next rally leg and you know how missing that hurt you...or worse, you shorted it.....

Get with the game....this is a one way street...up....inflate up and hope the sheeple don't care they are actually losing value.   

Get with the game!  Damn it!  

Pick your short tickers and get ready.  GET IT?  Pick your shorts now.   Don't enter them now....find them and pick them and price points, and print them.  

Your trading facilitator will "amazingly"lose all your charts and trade lines.....get ready for it.  

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Whos on the "In Team", Morg Stan sure is, check this article

So they are going to scuttle the ship, after they off load all the gold.

It is possible, but not probable

I think it is time to start pursuing long trades, and I don't mean QID, SDS, and the like of 2x Shorts.

Because everyone and their brother is pursuing long catch the trend....are you nuts?  Not a trend follower?

Because of this, I remphasize my call of the top....


Now to hedge my non-bets....let's just say, be on guard.   Be ready to throw down.  Get your favorite tickers ready.  Throw some tickers up as a comment, I will run them through my TA.

And finally....if we can possibly add one more thing balanced on the outcome of this Fridays jobs report....

Cool Stats by City

Check your own city.   Some have better real estate data than others.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Just when you think this market can do nothing but go up.......

We have reached that sentiment point, the market will only go up.  The Gov will keep pumping it.  All I can say is don't get complacent. 

Permanently Higher Plateau

Can anyone tell me when the title statement was first spoken in relation to elevated stock markets?

You will win a free 6 month membership to Hawaii Trading....

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Read this from Hussman

He states that the Free Markets are at risk of coming to an end.   

Nikkei Prime for Short, and UNG long Rational

3 reasons to call this short.

2 reasons to call UNG long.
This article by Marketwatch, unfairly/wrongly stated as not using leverage, and being the "worst" performing fund in 2009.

As a contrarian (really, what is that? seriously), I have to take this as a positive sign for long UNG.

Results of going 200% Short on Nov 23, per EW advice, the XMAS Massacre

SDS closed at 35.95

Now it is 35.05.

But it hit a low intra-day of 34.26 on New Years Eve.

On a closing basis, that is only a 2.5% loss for those that went 2X short on Nov 23, per EWI recommendation.  Of course, if you were buying near term puts to achieve the short, you probably lost almost everything, or at least had a costly roll forward.

But if you were stopped out by the drop to 34.26--thats almost a 4.7% loss.  Not terrible, but sure painful if you saw it recover 2.2% of that value the same day.

 On the QID, your losses would be 8.6%, or 10.7% if you got stopped out on New Years Morning.  Let the Gap Games roll....

On TWM, losses of 11.9% and 15.4% for that wicked final day stop out.

And don't forget about those tall building indicators....yowza!

And the Christmas Eve Massacre.    Does Barney Frank sometimes remind you of Barney Fife, except that he is not harmless.

Thoughts on the New Years Growth with Fibonacci

Fibonacci was a 13th century mathematician.   His family name was Bonacci, and somehow Family Bonacci became known at Fibonacci.  He was famous in his day, and still is.  Let me start at the end:


He came up with a series of numbers, that by sequential adding, created a ratio that quickly converged on a certain number .618.   People call this magic number "phi".   See the table below, it's pretty neat, I did it with my own spreadsheet. By dividing the fib numbers the reverse way, you converge quickly to Phi=1.618 which has its own interesting relations to phi.

Some interesting relations 1-phi = phi Squared = 1/(Phi Squared) = 38.1%
Some Math Head came up with phi = (SQRT (5)-1)/2, Exactly

Since it's Sunday AM, my slow moving brain concludes that no other Base 10 number can possibly have these same properties.  I wonder about other numbering bases.  After all, we have 12 moons in a year, 12 hours in a half day, 12 eggs in a dozen, 12 fingers....oh wait.  Base 12 is hard to work with and you can't count on your fingers.....

The Elliot claim is that the Fibonacci Series also described precisely many growth patterns of shells, plants, vein systems.  However, full  disclosure...there are many growth patterns that are spirals that DO NOT use the Fibo phi or Phi as a base, but many do.

Riddle me this---The Fib Sequence is based upon a numbering system called Base 10.   There are an infinite number of counting systems, Base 2, Base 3, Base 23, Base 77, whatever.

What would a Fibonacci Series look like in different numbering systems?   Why is Base 10, somehow a "magic" system to create a Fib Series that then describes so many natural phenomenon?

Did we as humans migrate to the Base 10 just because it somehow fit with our basic nature and effects upon the physics of the world in the way that natural items become ordered?  This seems rather extreme.

The base 10 appears to be an Indian invention, Centuries before the Family Bonacci.
Or are we forcing things into patterns?  And the Base 10 Fib just happens to get lucky based on "things change a certain amount" while bouncing around in cycles.  The human brain is great at finding patterns, it simplifies the massive information that comes at us.  For the most part I think this is a valuable thing, but the potential for misleading information should not be ignored.

Anyone have any input on this line of thinking?

The following is the Fibonacci Series, created with a 5 minute spreadsheet.