Saturday, September 26, 2009

Chart of Charts 092509 With New Fast Heatmap

What does this chart say to me?  After tortuing the data relentlessly but strictly mathamatically, we come to the conclusion that there is no holy grail.   Both the fast and slow heatmaps work well, and the crossover is conservative but performs very well.    I will be observing this unique forecasting method as time goes on.   Perhaps a technique is to get in on the trade on the fast, and then let the slow tell you when to get out.   Nothings perfect.

Those who have saw the Chart of Charts before should take note of the new Fast heat Map, and different formatting.

Note that the cross over, HAS NOT, confirmed a downtrend yet.  More conservative reviewers may wish to keep their powder dry to preclude your powder from being there is a graphic for you, no?

Don't Dwell on the Macabre, but don't fail to see the pattern

This incredible pattern of people wiping out their entire family and then killing themselves.  This is part of the price of the greed instituted by those who do know better.  

In trying to reflate bubble after bubble and live in an economy based primarily on consuming and financial gimmicks and downright lies, this is one of the aftermaths.  It is a sign, not the sole effect. 

Don't look forward to 3 of C if that is what it is.   We should not just pursue profits without thinking of some of the ramifications, and terrible events that will unfold as a bottom is found.  The overall effect will be pervasive.  blogger Daneric states Wave 3 scares him much more than Wave 2.  I agree.  It could be really bad...really bad.  World changing bad, governments may change, the way we think about social interactions and self protection may change.  Another blogger Atilla describes the future as "terra incognito", or Land that cannot be recognized. 

Horrorcore--Did you see that story?  

Seriously folks.  Those taking pleasure in profiting from the downside may find themselves being hunted as the root of the cause.  Not that it makes sense, just that revenge may be the order of the day.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Famous Publishers Nails it Again

This publishers makes the cover page an obvious 2 alternatives.....the market goes up or the market goes sideways.  McGraw Hill....this $12 subscription is almost worth more than my $720 Elliot Wave Subscriptions.

  Poll results--there is a new Poll up about Keynes, check it out.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Japan down 3% - as expected--but one day late....

Keynes....our hero, saved us from economic collapse

Cynic, yes.  Bear, currently.  Believe in Government spending money levelize resource long as it is money well spent and in the interest of long term productivity and overall well being.  That is not what has been happening lately.

Sign of a top......

G20 Just another brick in the wall?

What if, just what if, the recent plunge in markets..(well mini plunge) was orchestrated by the banksta's in order to get the G20 to "play ball", i.e. not restrict them and observe them too much, and at the same time, get them to throw some more easy money into the pot.

I'll likely be selling some puts tomorrow to hedge my puts.

Boatload O' Charts

So you say, hey where have the boatload O' Charts been....they just haven't been worth putting up lately.  The recent pullback is approaching the size of the last 2, and it's not like news has gotten suddenly's always been bad.   And there are still a bunch of IPO's to be launched is what I have heard, although not sure of exactly what is out there.   Below charts are nearly all represented by hand list of tickers I presented about 2 weeks back.  They are looking good on the downside.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Toll Brothers, for whom does the Bell Toll?

My old favorite Centex CTX disappeared in August.

TOL Toll Brothers a large house builder has had a 50% run up since bottom.   CEO has been selling like mad. 

Expecting rise in market tomorrow.  There was no big "distribution to the masses today, and I am sure big money wants to do more of that.

Consider some stink puts on Tol.   They are not too outrageously priced, and the volume is pretty good.

And finally, some comments at the far bottom about American GDP per capita compared to the rest of the G-20 and one of our finest exports....wowing them in Hong Kong.

And Citibank, one of the biggest recipients of taxpayer bailout, is closing many US branches, yet see below in our visitor log....they our visiting our humble little blog from China....same day as the headlines on US office closings.

Rising Wedge - 5 minutes of thought

The rising wedge is a much maligned pattern.  I say this because I see it playing out pretty often.  typically a break to the downside is what happens.  The measure move is equal to the fat part of the wedge (on the bottom side). 

In this modern "tricky market" there are often false breaks, which cause some traders to place their money and then "stick with it".  After about 3%, fess up to yourself, and close the losing trade.   My experience in viewing hundreds of these play out is that if they move more than 3% the wrong way....CONSIDER it failed. 

The most common is the break to downside then retrace to the lower trend line.   These are awesome, because it they "stick" it should be a good move.  However, they may come back a few times to test that line, so be prepared for that

Several books and online guides seem to just copy each other, they state that rising wedges are hard to recognize and only seen after the fact.  Well in my best political meandering, let me put it this way.....BULLSHIT, these things are obvious.  Way more obvious than a cup an handle  and way more obvious than counting most Elliot Waves. 

Some references state that it must touch and bounce off the top and bottom line 3 times each.   Hmmmm, my experience is that 3 to the upside and 2 to the downside is way more common.  6 never happens from what I see....The 6th is a sled ride down.   

But lets not get too excited about the current wedges on the big indices.  They aren't quite "perfect".  I like to see them bounding off one and then going to the other, not pounding on the same line time and again.   They dont often make a bee-line for the other side, but a return to the same line is not as good.   But also cut these current wedges some slack....we are probably at a super cycle top, and we peered into Armageddon, and now that we avoided Armageddon, instead of caution, people have gained a false sense of security. 

I put diagrams on my blog. free bandwidth posting on other blogs of 2G is used up this month. 

Interesting similarites between $spx on two timeframes

Strong Hands Selling to Weak

I had this site as a bookmark on my desktop but never explored it.  I check 30 historical dates.
With the exception of last Friday with $800,000,000 of KO stock being sold into strength, It is not often that we see the type of selling the SPY and QQQQ into strength. 

The market makers are finding plenty of guillilble retail investors worried that they missed this rally.

You can download as an Excel spreadsheet, for one day.  But I could see compiling the data to one sheet and then running pivot table and pivot charts (this is a massively useful analytical function of Excel, not a stock pivot) and getting some insight into inter market money flows.

We will probably have money bouncing from one sector to another as the first sector tanks.  Watch as the money flow starts trickling down into that second sector and then get ready for some blood letting (SHORT!).

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

China down 5% over 3 days, and Japan has been on Holiday

Japan had a big 5 day weekend. It was always the Autumnal Equinox, and then they added in "Old folks day", and then there was a generic government holiday. Added up to a stupendous 5 day holiday.

a year or two back, when Japan raised the interest rate from 0% to 0.25%, their stock market tanked 10%. Very emotional.

Whilst the big holiday has been going on, China has tanked 5% in 3 days. It will be interesting to see if that plays out as a big sell-off.

Asia doesn't seem to affect US stocks on a day by day basis, but on a longer basis they could be a leader in trend.

EUR short USD Bull

China IPO's

This article is from a free monthly periodical called Global Finance. You can get yourself a free subscription.

Greed is still in style. IMHO it appears that the human race learnt nothing from the meltdown in financial systems and losses of trillions of dollars of net worth. China...well, they are new at this game, you could cut them some slack. The other guys....well, I think they want everything to blow up one more time so they can buy up everything on the cheap.

Dia and 50%Fib

This is basically an update from a prior post. Lots of important levels being reached.

Fib Fan 38 from 1932

Monday, September 21, 2009

This post in response to a "bullish" post on TK site. Sorry but it's for real.

Yes we are all bulls, Obama has saved the world, and now that we are on reasonable valuations and and even keel, we have also regained our work ethic, and industrial productivity. Trust has come back 100% , and we all know that the banker/gov can be trusted 100% with our 401K and SS money. All of the wars we are in are going fine, just like Vietnam, and we will win shortly here. Our debt is under control and there is no need to debase our currency to default on the debt. Housing prices are sure to stabilize and thus bring prosperity and the housing ATM back into the market. Obnoxious bulls are likely to gain humility and stop being snark. And all charts i made last weekend showing a clear end to this rally will be proven wrong, since the recession is proven to be ended by the fact that the stock market is going up. But besides all the awesome fundamentals, we also have Inverse head and shoulders showing the S&P to go to 1200 or more... so yeah, we are all f'n bullish. And when we have taken enough pain and rebuilt from a level that is appropriate--and have regained the little things that level the playing field and inspire creativity, investment, and hard the US constitution, then perhaps we can look forward to a "wall of worry" as opposed to a "ramp of pimp (tm)".

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Asian Currency and Stock prices

It seems like for an Elliot Wave 5 to complete that many of the Asian stock indicies need to rally, maybe 4 to 8%. Maybe USD rallies....driving US indices down, and flooding money into foreign indices.

Seems "perfectly wrong". And that is why I think it is perfectly right.

The Ticker Guy -- Karl Denniger and G20 info

Short Life Insurance

Interesting that this is the worst since the second half of 1942. I did a study on the rare "single bottom" recovery of 1942 which launched while an incredible number of important WW2 events were happening. Check it out.

How about this for a theory---the greed and bullishness of 1942, just like today, make people want to chase higher returns, and spend less on boring things like life insurance.

Tomorrow is the fall equinox. It is psychologically important. Summer is over. Winter approaches.

Precious Metals May become less precious

Heck, why stick with just calling stock tops....lets call a bottom on the dollar.

Rarely do things look "clear cut" --but these do --and I am looking for some advice on how to play them.
COT reports show that large traders are positioned way short on Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. ''retail" or small futures traders are way long. It has to balance.
The big guys are probably right and the small guys are probably wrong. Plus the dollar IMHO is likely to rocket up and I am thinking the declining social mood is about to "make some news" -- flight to safety in a beaten down dollar may occur, this will drop prices on hard assets.

Gold is highly gamed by gold bugs and well, everyone. Silver is gamed also, especially by ETF and as poor mans gold.

So I want to take a short on platinum and palladium....futures look real illiquid. How to do it?

I pulled out my Tome "The Futures Game" by Teweles/Jones and can summarize some facts for you:

PGM= Platinum Group Metals, 6 closely related metals, platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium (wow--it's sure been a long time since I took chemistry!) These rare elements, often found in areas where gold, copper, and nickel are found--- function as "catalysts", in particular catalytic converters for vehicles.

Platinum makes nice rings and jewelry, but that is only about 5% of the total demand. Fully half of the platinum is used in the electrical industry, as a catalyst in fuel cells. 20% is for vehicles. It is also used as a catalyst in fuel cracking and processing.

One cautious thought on these rare metals. The Silver ETF certainly increased demand and prices for silver. There was talk of a platinum and palladium ETF in the US. There already are some in Europe.

An Aside: I like to look at news from the UK, and I do think their news has more truth to it than "news" in the US which is far, far too controlled by special interests. This hit me like a ton of bricks in the Iraq invasion, in which reporters were being "embedded" with the troops. Thats when it was clear that only the news that the powers that be wanted reported, would be reported. Hmmmm....does Embedded, mean "In Bed With"?