Saturday, August 27, 2011

Nothing short of stupid

You really have to consider that there are some 3,4,5, and 6 sigma events going on.

To not spend time and effort investing in health, knowledge, and physical preparations would be nothing short of stupid.

Gold Time To Short

Kliking on Adz makes you a smarter and more attractive person.

Looks like a perfect short on gold.
These bernoulli channels bring gold movements into perspective.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Channel of Doom from 2003

Really look at this, it is beyond amazing.    I keep these artifacts in my charts, and I was amazed at how well Nasdaq was following this channel.   Then I  couldn't remember when I drew the channel, years back.... check it out.    And drop a freaking comment already Thanks!

And thinkorswim, now complete engulfed by the evil empire, is beyond death watch. they push mandatory updates several times a week now.

Egg of Doom August 2011 Version

Egg of Doom, and old favorite

And here is the egg in original size for those who want to inspect more closely

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

All the Put Call Ratios have moderated

they're all around middle of the road, perhaps the rest of the week will be neutral channel until Jackson Hole.

Gold and Copper

I tried to pick a good Bernoulli Channel for gold, pretty tough.

I found 2, and then show them combined.   When I get a bounce on the B100, B133, B177 channel extensions, then place on support or resistance.   USD is sure taking it's time if it is going to run up, that would pressure gold down.

Who knows, maybe the Bernank will announce a stealth QE3, and everyone will celebrate the doom of the dollar by bidding up the indices. 

It is clear, the Bernank and powers that be do not want a strong dollar, they want to default on debt, and as cost to re-sell debt goes up, they will want to print (pay off the old debt directly with crisp $100 bills, lots of them) and default on the remainder by the act of printing. 

Gov also wants US to be able to sell to foreign markets and weaker dollar allows that.

Monday, August 22, 2011

NYSI The summation index as an indicator

Sometimes the summation index likes to go and kick around at the bottom for a while, but usually not too long.   The crosses of the red and black lines have been pretty darn good, only a few times subjecting you to significant pain had you simply traded the signals.      Far better than listening to MSM "news".   This game is for all the money in the world, of course the news is manipulated.  Once the newscasters were "embedded" with the Desert Storm troops, I strongly suspected a degradation in news.   i.e. report the news we want you to report, or we kick you out of the scoop position.    Very simple strategies, very effective.

This chart is implying that it would be wise to go long in the near future, although the cross hasn't happened yet.  This conflicts with my Bernoulli Channel and Ellipse Launch upward of the USD.   

For you with Stockcharts membership here is the actual linkable chart$NYSI&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42904114771&a=238707884
Klik some ADZ?

60 Minutes on Fukushima

I put a video of 60 minutes on the "Japan Nuclear Information" Page

Bottom line....we all get dosed, doesn't matter what hemisphere you are in, or what country, or what you eat, or how you filter your water.   We all get dosed, to some degree.

Nuclear Testing and Fukushima

Fukushima has at least 2.5 Million pound of uranium product on site.   They are all at risk.

8 pounds of plutonium is needed to make a nuclear bomb.   I am not saying that make Fukushima equal to 300,000 nuclear bombs.   But one could easily surmist that Fukusima could easily release as much radiation as 1000 or 10,000 nuclear bombs.

Much of the radiation from nuclear bombs is short lived, i.e. Iodine, which is effectively gone away in 80 days.    Much of the radiation isotopes being continuously produced at Fukushima are long lived....they will be around in force for our lives, and even your grand children's lives.

This disaster is not being processed correctly.   It needs to be a war.   

A look at number of prior nuclear tests.

SPX Monthly and Gold Parabolic

Put Call and USD

Just some charts, they speak for themselves if you  know how to listen.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Gold commentary by john

John often comments at Daneric, he had this to write about GOLD.   I also believe 1950-2000 could be a top, with a quick blowoff to reach there, could happen in minutes,   hmmm, stink puts purchase on GLD....I like the smell of that.

No final top is not likely in yet. Getting closer to a more significant correction though.

8/25 Thurs is PM options day. So like equities, PM's often have some games also. The smarts often try something a few days before that if they have the power. If they have the power they may take gold down to 1800-1825 area if possible to cool it and shock a few people. Providing a long buying opportunity for a short term play. But sometimes they do not have the power and it just pauses and goes up.
If trend is too powerful Gold will pause sideways and then push on to 1950-2000 its logical next resistance zone for now.

Silver as well may pause or correct some as well. Then if market stays as it is now silver may try for 50 again. Silver is already above key resistance and the next resistance is 50.

trends are still up with corrections still to be bought until key resistance areas are reached gold 1950-2000, silver 49-50. Then we will see the power. Do we get a larger correction or small one and then on up more past gold and silver key resistance zones. Currently nobody knows the answer to that.

I will sell some of my GLD at open on Monday or before open if market is liking gold still. Then let rest run with a tight stop in case it goes up any more before a possible options correction. Then if smarts are able to give gold a correction to say 1800-1825 area, I will buy some more back in to try for ride to 1950-2000 area which is the next key resistance area. But if the panic is still on it could go up more. If no correction I will just let my remaining run with tight stops.

With Venezuela demanding a large amount of gold back from UK banks, market is now getting fearful of a rather large gold shortage world wide if people are starting to take gold out of repositories back to the real owners. Maybe people are getting afraid of the fiat currencies and want their gold next to them.

And others stealing and wanting gold all over the place. There is a real demand for the gold and fear of shortage.

"Final" top for gold will likely be when this secular bear market is done in say 2016? We have debt crisis to solve and fiat currencies to stabilize before people stop buying gold. But in the mean times there will be periodic cleansing larger corrections. But currently those are very hard to predict.

ES downward channel back in play

For newbies, ES is the Futures Contract for the S&P 500 index.    It is high leverage, and it trades on Sunday, which can be useful.   It also trades at night during the week, almost 24/6.    That can allow enabled traders to react to news.    The big drop Thursday night was exactly caused by the Japan Earthquake, which was possibly caused by Comet Honda (ironic name).  The continuous trade can help prevent a "gap your face off" event, but there are also shenanigans played on late night low volume futures, they run stops, and a small amount of money can cause big changes.    Something  like 80% of the ramp up from 666 was caused by ramping of futures, and most of it on Sunday.   No joke.

It sure looks like this old channel is back in play.  And the big 50% Fib could be acting as a "Crash Cushion" TM.   This is the 50% from the all time high to the Paulson low 666.

Euro opens trade in 13 minutes.  See prior post, we expect a big move up on the dollar USD. 

If we start getting some mass media rosy news, take that as deception.