Sunday, August 21, 2011

Gold commentary by john

John often comments at Daneric, he had this to write about GOLD.   I also believe 1950-2000 could be a top, with a quick blowoff to reach there, could happen in minutes,   hmmm, stink puts purchase on GLD....I like the smell of that.

No final top is not likely in yet. Getting closer to a more significant correction though.

8/25 Thurs is PM options day. So like equities, PM's often have some games also. The smarts often try something a few days before that if they have the power. If they have the power they may take gold down to 1800-1825 area if possible to cool it and shock a few people. Providing a long buying opportunity for a short term play. But sometimes they do not have the power and it just pauses and goes up.
If trend is too powerful Gold will pause sideways and then push on to 1950-2000 its logical next resistance zone for now.

Silver as well may pause or correct some as well. Then if market stays as it is now silver may try for 50 again. Silver is already above key resistance and the next resistance is 50.

trends are still up with corrections still to be bought until key resistance areas are reached gold 1950-2000, silver 49-50. Then we will see the power. Do we get a larger correction or small one and then on up more past gold and silver key resistance zones. Currently nobody knows the answer to that.

I will sell some of my GLD at open on Monday or before open if market is liking gold still. Then let rest run with a tight stop in case it goes up any more before a possible options correction. Then if smarts are able to give gold a correction to say 1800-1825 area, I will buy some more back in to try for ride to 1950-2000 area which is the next key resistance area. But if the panic is still on it could go up more. If no correction I will just let my remaining run with tight stops.

With Venezuela demanding a large amount of gold back from UK banks, market is now getting fearful of a rather large gold shortage world wide if people are starting to take gold out of repositories back to the real owners. Maybe people are getting afraid of the fiat currencies and want their gold next to them.

And others stealing and wanting gold all over the place. There is a real demand for the gold and fear of shortage.

"Final" top for gold will likely be when this secular bear market is done in say 2016? We have debt crisis to solve and fiat currencies to stabilize before people stop buying gold. But in the mean times there will be periodic cleansing larger corrections. But currently those are very hard to predict.


  1. Steeeeeevoooo!

    Honestly, you want to short one of the few true bull markets in town?!  WTF?!!

    If you're itchin' to short, look at the EUR/USD.  There's a disaster waiting to happen.

    Trading 101:  Short rips in bear markets, buy dips in bull markets!

  2. Courageous call on the short term correction on Gold when "everyone" knows this is the ONLY reliable bull on Wall Street!

    I'll go you one further andsay it is all over except the crying for Joe Six Pack and his game of bull. I'm heavily short both silver and gold gold this morning anticipating a collapse similar to oil a few years back when everyone "knew" it was going to $200/bbl.

    Nice move taking gold longs this AM if you did so. I see price 10% or more lower by the end of the week. I'll post some target prices later.

    It's soon over for gold
    Joe Six Pack was so bold
    He'll be out when oversold
    A collapse and a fold
    On his buy and hold
    Just as I told
    Let's watch it unfold


  3. Physical never gets sold. 
    Parabola's always fail, 100% that I have seen.    Could it push to 2500 and then fall back to 1400, sure.  Right now watching and plotting.

  4. IB notifying that margin requirements on gold going up....we know how that games plays out, IB is honest broker


Insightful and Useful Comment!