Friday, June 11, 2010

Euro still in it's down channel

Read the notes on the chart please.

Also, watch the futures action, esp after closing (its goes for 15 more minutes, the big boys may square up their positions after a final ramp/stop sweep).

Vaporization versus Transference of Wealth

The below was a comment on Bill Cara's blog.

 

Re: Nationalising BP would kick the stuffing out of its price

You're absolutely right Bill. The $4B USD represents the top 10 holders only. Look at the total picture:
BP closing price 3/31/10 57.07
BP closing price 6/10/10 32.78
$Loss/share 24.29
Percentage loss 42.6%
Total shares outstanding(billions) 3.13
Mkt cap 3/31/10 $178.63
Mkt cap 6/10/10 $102.60
Loss $76.03
Wealth evaporation. I've always wondered where the money disappears to when share prices drop so sharply.

Steveo's Reply
2 Cases:

1) Vaporization
2) Transfer

Sometimes its just vapor....i.e. someone bought at 20, went to 80 they thought they were rich, then back to 20....in reality they lost nothing.

In other cases a counterparty sold to them at 80, it drops to 20, and the counterparty took their money effectively.

However, even in the first place, the psychological effect on the market seems to be even worse than in the second place.    In the second example, at least someone feels rich (probably HBB).

Here's the rub....I just don't feel all warm and fuzzy that in the second example, the fact that HBB took/has the money, that it will be a resource properly deployed to benefit our country in any positive way.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

View of futures, updated 10 seconds, on a side monitor

http://www.forexpf.ru/chart/sp500f/

Cool link, maybe put a view of the future on another screen, not your main computer.

Tin foil hat, failures of brokers to handle orders

The timing is amazing, considering that I feel this is possible the last ramp up before a steady down.  And because failed orders on futures are something I have never seen.   That said....the failure might have done some shorts a favor and kept them in.

steveo out for tonight!

Euro Pull Me Push You Critter, perchance the top

Look at the last 30 minutes of so of the trading day....a slow fall off.   No oomph!  It was a bear squeeze, and that's it.   No driving force, only a money grab, and I bet it worked very well for HBB.

Now we are hitting PRS 133 and some Fibs.   Is the gig up?   Time will tell.



But the DWC/DIA ratio, which I have coined as the "Holy Grail" says that the gig is up, market will turn down within 1 to 3 days, and could fall hard, This ratio paints exactly like Sep 2008. Search my previous posts.

Gazing at the moon or lack thereof

Some traditional wisdom says buy a big drop or sell a big rally into a moon (esp a new moon), hmmm like right now.   

My bearish positions were pounded today.   HBB still got game, one of the most bullish days in history.  A massive short squeeze.   Unfortunately (ouch) is got squeezed but didn't cry uncle.   The bets are still on, for better or worse, we shall see.

Of course, we head into expiry week next Monday, with Monday and Tuesday being the most volatile days, usually. 

Review Braveheart....hold, hold.........of course, he was also tortured....

Chinese can be as funny as Hitler

Death Cross on the Cost of Capital

Tim Knight posted a bunch of short ideas, just tickers and stops.   Will have to say though, back in the day, I banked some coin by tagging on to some of his ideas.

His site is called Slope of Hope.


Also see the link below, a death cross on the cost of capital.

http://pragcap.com/an-inverted-death-cross-in-investment-grade-credit

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Keep is Simple

Many of the Governments of the World have realized.....pumping the economy with currency, especially poorly dispersed money with low probability of actually creating future wealth and efficiencies, is a waste of time and money. 

The game is now deflation.  Everyone tried to avoid Japan's lost decades.   The price for that avoidance behavior will be huge.   Minimize your part in it.

Not saying that the O'savior can't  try again....he has strong rhetoric, he may try.

Ramp of Pimp

Ramp of Pimp(see update at bottom)



"They" and/or the Elliott wave and crowd emotion jacked up this market to between 50% and 61%.   Funny how Bernanke was pimping out the market the last 2 days.   When was the last time we heard "the problem is contained, there will be little spillover"...hmmm housing market, sure glad that didn't hurt the economy or wallstreet.  But the joke is the Bernanke conditioned his comment that Europe would not spill over into America as long as Wallstreet was OK.   Huh?   Blatant manipulation and lies.    Wallstreet and the economy are hardly attached, but fundamentals drive Wallstreet rather than the other way around.   Bernanke implied that it was the other way around, that Wallstreet could save Mainstreet.    Before growth can occur we need at least 2 things---a reasonable level to grow from, and ATTITUDE change.

UPDATE
This ramp put one of my accounts into a futures margin call.   They were screaming...send us money TODAY or we will liquidate you.   Yeah, we will see how that pans out--if may need to transfer money over to Interactive Brokers even though their trading platform is not as user friendly.   TOS is now Ameritrade (really the transfer just happened weeks ago, amazing timing, but they can no longer be trusted--they are the establishment of financial entitlement.)   They didn't liquidate my positions, and I didn't send them money, and the accounts bounced back nicely.   I also didn't get stopped out, but a maybe 3 points over that 61 Fib they would have probably got my "uncle cry".

That HBB sure got game, but they don't get up early enough in the morning and they go to sleep too quick on the way to the Hamptons.   They won't do well when the spell of entitlement and connectedness get wiped off their silly Hummer driving faces by the reality that is coming.  whew----a rant.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Bouncing Ball Indicator, only partly in jest

If Fibonacci numbers can control price movements, why can't ellipses?  Check this out, and check the lower chart....the bounce action might seem a bit boring until we reach the edge.

And below EUR /USD in pretty nicely proportional bear flag.  This wave 2 or wave 4 drawn out slow up's do a heck of a job of the infamous slow frog boil....killing shorts with tight stops.   Taunting the shorts repeatedly.   You could lose enough money that even when you are right, you just get back what you lost.  Ouch.  

Holy Grail Review

Below is a closeup, the pop up and then pop down is what we are looking for....that usually signals a decent drop. In the file link below, I discussed this indicator in the middle of May, saying, "Get ready for a sled ride". I like this indicator.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Gi-9fDeQJwo/S-kJijEWRWI/AAAAAAAACfg/lRrkDECdjcs/s1600/One+chart+to+rule+them+all.png

Bears will be subjected to some pain

Today wasn't enough to shake out most "convinced bears" -- expect a bit more upside, just like Monday was used to shake out bulls....

I will be looking for tactically higher levels than Tuesday, on Wednesday.

Big Ben Says "No Double Dip", "No Euro Problems"

This is very easy to interpret.   When "they" hold a press conference to restore confidence, you can rest assured that the truth is the opposite of what you are hearing.

Double dip is almost guaranteed.  

Euro is toast.  
The ramp job today on the Euro was a good short sweep....yeah they got my shorts

Think how great that is....devalue the entire Euro, European exports go up, esp Germany.   Sure they hate the loss value of saved money, we all do/all will.   But it's better than Europe blowing up at this time.   Actually, it may be better for Europe to blow up right now (split from the Euro), in the long run.   But in our "kick the can" society, they are at least hoping that devaluation of the Euro is the least painful thing.

Japan is already bitching because the weak Euro is hurting their exports, the US will see this effect too, and then US will print more and "regain a competitive edge".  

This bizarro world is more understandable when you don't over complicate/over think things too much.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Fractals, the Ramp of Pimp

World Clock, Gaming the Gamers, and more



And here is a cool link to world clock.   See when other countries start trading.   Great stuff if you play late night futures or Forex.
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/personal.html?cities=240,173,1250,33,195,83,211,78,1504,248,534,264,187,1238,682,214,141,268,136,103,179,2

Fear Factor in Detail

If you could convert this to brail, blind men could trade.

Chart below is from Springheel Jack, posted on TTW methinks.  What an eye, this is a line that counts.

ES PRS133 that is working

20% up day

OK....take a deep breath.  

When is the last time you increased your trading accounts by 20% in one day?  Today was that day for me.

I actually got an email notice on accidentally using to much day-trade futures margin, from thinkorswim.   Watchout---"they" don't want any retail making money, "they" will use any excuse to strip your privileges at the turning of the tide.

Don't get cocky.

It is like the ocean, if you ever lose your respect for it for one minute, it will make a special effort to rise up and smite thee.

Short from 1103 on the ES

The vast majority of medium and long term indicators are bearish.   Don't be deceived.   18 of 20 indicators are bearish.

I am not going to "play cute" and game the limited upside moves.  I added money into my trading accounts to add to shorts based upon breaking these PRS133 channel lines.   Until they are broken, you should expect them to bounce up.  Once broken, I expect them to fall to the next channel line.  The yellow outside 133 channel is expected to be the strongest support.  Questions about the PRS133, use the search box on this blog. 

You can see by the way the index (/ES) moves with respect to the channel lines, that this is a "good channel".

Don't be deceived.   The bull is done, put a fork in him.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Fiat Money is the hot potato / shell game

I thought this was hilarious.  

In this article from Oct 2009
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/httpbooks.html
 I stated:
Also seems like the buck could be used as a punishment tool for Iran.   They want out of the buck....OK, let them sell into an abyss.  then when they have taken a hit and got out of the buck, then rally up the buck, punishing Iran.
This seems to have played out nicely.  Now the hilarious part.   Iran sold their dollar assets into an abyss, now they want to sell their Euro assets (into an abyss), and buy back Ol' Bucky.  See this article from Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4lkmEhesqLc

Iran Selling 45 Billion Euros of Reserves for Dollars (Update3)

By Ali Sheikholeslami
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s central bank began the first phase of the 45 billion-euro ($55 billion) sale of some of its reserves for dollars, the state-run Jaam-e-Jam newspaper reported, citing people it didn’t identify.
The bank is selling 15 billion euros in the first of three stages, which will be completed by Sept. 22, the newspaper reported on its website on May 31.
Iran will “substantially” decrease its oil sales in euros, the paper said. It informed Japan and other crude-oil customers of the change, Jaam-e-Jam said. The Persian Gulf country’s euro reserves are 55 percent of the total, and would be reduced to 20 to 25 percent after the sale is complete and after oil sales in euros have been reduced, the paper said.
Iran’s shift out of euros has been prompted by the single currency’s decline, said Jaam-e-Jam, which is owned by the state broadcaster. Other central banks, including those of the Persian Gulf states, also are selling their euro reserves, it said.
The euro was little changed against the dollar, rising 0.1 percent to $1.2241 at 12:45 p.m. in New York.
The euro made up 27.4 percent of global currency reserves at the end of 2009, according to the most recent data available from the International Monetary Fund. While that was down from 27.8 percent in September, it was up from 26.4 percent a year earlier.
Experts in Iran’s central bank have suggested the country buy gold because they forecast the precious metal’s price will increase, Jaam-e-Jam said.
Euro’s Decline
The euro has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year, reaching a four-year low yesterday, amid concern the debt crisis that started in Greece will spread to other nations and dent economic growth. The slide forced European Union leaders to piece together an almost $1 trillion loan package last month as confidence in the euro’s status as an alternative reserve currency to the dollar faded.
Gold is up 11 percent this year and is headed for a 10th annual gain, the longest rally since at least 1920. The metal reached a record $1,249.40 an ounce on May 14 and traded at $1,223.05 an ounce in London today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ali Sheikholeslami in London at alis2@bloomberg.net