Friday, May 13, 2011

Quote from NHK news

Also on Saturday, Kansai Electric Power Company is to shut down the No.3 reactor at the Mihama plant in Fukui Prefecture on the Sea of Japan coast for a periodic inspection.

As a result, 35 reactors in Japan, or two-thirds of the country's commercial nuclear reactors, will be shut down.

Some stopped operating after the March 11th disaster while others have been suspended after routine inspections. Saturday, May 14, 2011 12:00 +0900 (JST)

This is freaking me out.  Japan relies heavily on nuclear.   They must be getting ready for "The Big One"

Conspiracy Theories and Earthquakes

Some researchers, especially Japanese have been precient at predicting earthquakes.
I heard a report of someone flying into Tokyo 2 nights ago that Tokyo was dark.

In a reality of forced blackouts, what would cause a government to "request" more nuclear plants to be shutdown?

I have had the earthquake gadget on my desktop since indonesia.

For sure, the last 1.5 weeks has been the weirdest I have ever seen.    Earthquakes have increased in number and dispersed, not just on the ring of fire. 

So just saying, whoa!  Just saying, is there a prediction, held secret of more big earthquakes.   Everything I see on raw data and everything I see on the news, AND LACK THEREOF, says yes.

Tinfoil hat?   Sure.     It won't protect against radiation though, well not most of it.

Mess with nature?   Nature will win.  Try to get the best deal "on nature", i.e. fission--well pushing your luck.  George Carlin, one of the best comedians ever, and extremely intelligent....the planet is doing fine, the planet will be fine, it is the humans that are in trouble.  

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Snout O' Fear and ACT

For better or worse, I remain stubbornly long ES, short NKD

Earthquakes, ES

144 is quite a bit of 4+ earthquakes.  The odd thing is how spread out they are, usually the ring of fire concentrates almost all of them.

 Some of my lottery puts did nicely on this, and are closed out.   The USD did a massive launch, upward, I expect a pullback/slowdown on rate of ascent.

This late last night call for a silver short (for the insance) was great timing, unfortunately I wasn't feeling insane.   Silver futures are a wild ride even on normal days and times.

I welcome he among you to throw the first dirty iceball at this moon theory.   From experience I see several months where the market obviously follows the moon, and then it goes it a phase where it doesn't follow the moon at all.


From Gerald Celente (I know I know....)

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Wed Original Charts

1 or 3 days up from here, is my thoughts for my think about your own.

Bottom line....if you don't have you own conviction about why you got into a trade, you will not have the stalwartness to get out when you should.

Long in the tooth and getting longer, like an old bull

Here is one trade idea I am looking at.   If you have the time, trading the individual issues can be nice for a quick 4% or 15%. 

Or you can play just end of day mechanical systems.  Or daytrade using the VWAP as a primary indicator.

Or sit in cash

I am long futures with a few "lottery puts" to cash in on a flash crash or just "good crash"

Monday, May 9, 2011

FF, ACT, PRS, VOS, ES breakout? all the usual suspects. Enjoy

Downloadable Spreadsheet with SPX trade results from 1995

This spreadsheet was made using some old 2X S&P 500 funds that are buy at close, sell at close only.

Check it out!  and please comment.    Besides the cost of the service (not through Hawaii Trading), I wonder why anyone wouldn't want to try this.   Cost is $60 plus the base membership, which is $40, so it is really $100 a month.   If you have a $5000 account, you should focus on working to create some money, not trading the indices....this subscription won't be really worth it to you. 

If you have a $100,000 you can allocate, then you do the math, review with your trusted advisor, etc.


SPX Trade Performance Summary Spreadsheet

Main currencies rally? Lying as standard operating procedure

Odd, from the PRS channels, the USD, the GBP, and the Euro all seem to want to have an intermediate term rally.

I can't see how that is all possible at the same time.   Maybe Euro tanks through the PRS 177 and the other 2 rally.  

I did close my GBP short on Sunday, which was nearly perfect.


What you hear, is most likely to be a lie, what if I am lying right now?

Man, and you thought you could at least trust a Luxembourgian (from Zero Hedge)

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Jobs and Wealth, what really makes real jobs, and From the Peter Dag Site

I read Dag occasionally.   You should too.
"I feel completely blessed to be alive right now. To be a witness and participant in a moment in human history that will be written about and passed down in tales for as long as humanity remains on this planet. We are currently observing the evaporation of what Nazis referred to as “The Big Lie.” In very basic terms the concept of The Big Lie is that if you are going to lie you may as well lie big. So big in fact that the majority of well meaning citizenry could never imagine anyone lying on such a grand scale (particularly not their government “officials”) so that they don’t even question the basis of their own reality. In the case of the United States the Big Lie is that we have a free market capitalist economy. Instead we have a corporatist/fascist economy that enriches three main groups. Wall street financiers, the military industrial complex and large multi-national corporations that don’t pay taxes. So that begs the question, how can the American people be so brainwashed into thinking they live in this false reality? It’s very easy. It’s all about the money." Mike Krieger

My theory is that the dynamics concerned in the search of power and wealth typical of every living being leads to an increasing concentration of power and wealth in the hands of few power groups. The outcome is corruption and the decadence of the state and much slower economic growth.

In other words, the income of the general population decreases with the increase of the concentration of power and wealth in the hands of few power groups. See for instance what happens in dictatorial regimes.

Is our economy growing too slowly because power and wealth is being concetrated in the hands of few power groups? Only time will tell.

Now everyone is asking the Government to "create jobs", well that is hardly the real issue....don't get me wrong, the lack of jobs is a serious symptom.    What needs to happen is we need to legislate to remove lobbying and gifts, and high paid jobs after the politician leave politics.   Then we need to elect and train our leaders into understanding that a wealthy healthy economy is created by building products that people need to buy, education, enforcement of contract law so that hard work and innovation pay off, control of the money supply so that planning and saving pay off, and speaking a common language and by that I mean English, not greed.  Pull back 90% of Americans working for the Gov abroad and train them in building and managing the factories that will rebuild America. Slash 40% of all Government programs and jobs, and train them in those same factories.    The only way to get rid of the long training of "gov work" is to get pushed into real actual make something with your hands and your brain work. 

It is really that simple.   The hard part is scraping away the vampire squid.

M3 also How to Turn 10,000 into $66M in 16 years.

Why not give your mother $66,000,000 for this mother's day, after all she put up with you.
Here's how

Here is a spreadsheet, created by a member at Breakpoint Trades, modified by me with some stats on the lower left.

Since 1995, there were 140 long entries (and of course 140 closing sells)
there were 74 short sells (and of course 74 buy to cover)

The average calender day trade period was just under 28 days

If using ULPIX Profunds 2X long, and URPIX Profunds 2X short, which can only be opened or closed at end of day--

$10,000 turns into $66,000,000 (compounding the earnings)

But if you "miss" and can't get the order to your broker on the signal day, and instead you buy or sell the next day, then the performance drops terribly, to a shabby $49,000,000.    :-)

Interesting?  Sign up using the link on the upper left of my blog, it doesn't cost you anymore, and they give me free months.

Trade System list of all trades and performance results--------------------------------------------------------------
Ran across this blog, looks like good stuff.   Check it out.

This post is about the Euro to oblivion, but maybe not just this minute.

78 fibo on SPX and Moving the Market

This looks pretty simple actually.

Lookat the blue line, a possible backtest coming up.

Although I am long right now, don't blong long time.

Euro, PRS Channels, and Long ES, BPT account

Went long ES last week

PRS channels from last week showed that Euro was probably at a bottom, expecting a bounce up from the RPS 177 channel line.   See chart.

Check out this "terrible" trade results using the SPY trade system (trade on the S&P 500, complex mechanical system) ONLY 81% winning trades, heck the long term average on the "simple system" is 91%.  

The creator of this SPY trade system, Matt from BPT, is probably more concerned today with other things, than the small ramp in the futures.    His wife is having a baby on Mother's day, way cool, let's wish them the best.  

There are 2 systems to this system, the simple "all in" buy a unit or sell a unit, or the "Multi Entry" system which scales in and scales out.    The Multi-entry system performs better, smaller max draw down, higher profits, but of course needs more "baby sitting", i.e. more trades, although they are still trades at close or on open, so not too bad.  

I was going to trade this system with 100k using straight S&P equivalents, but instead will run the Multi Entry system, using 2, 3, 4, or 5 futures (ES mini)--it is actually more "notional money" than 100k.   I will report back occasionally on success, but I will not "give away" the current trade, as this is a product they sell.   They are limiting membership, which is good--if too many people get in the the system may not work as well. 

Sign up through link on my blog, on upper left, it doesn't cost you any more.   Do it today, before the opportunity is gone.

Why oh Why can't we demand a better press corps?

From NHK: Good news, 1 of the 6 spent fuel pool is not "blown to shit".   However, it is "boiling at 84 deg C".   Now folks....3 decades ago in 8th grade science, we were taught that water boils at 100 deg C, which is equal to 212 deg F.  Doesn't the current press corp pass at least 8th grade?   And if they are presented with information that makes no sense, shouldn't they clarify it before passing it on, or else not pass it on at all?

This is not rocket science I am talking about here.   The reporting on Fukushima has been nothing short of criminally stupid.
the spent fuel pool in the Number 4 reactor.

The video was taken on Saturday by a camera on the tip of a mechanical arm used to pour water to cool the reactor.

The footage shows 1,535 spent fuel rods stored in racks and covered by water. It also shows debris and ladders damaged by an explosion that occurred after the March 11th earthquake and tsunami. The shelves on the side wall have been destroyed.

Bubbles are occasionally visible, as the water is boiling at a temperature of 84 degrees Celsius.