Saturday, July 10, 2010

BP Sealing Cap

The Sealing Cap is a good thing.  I wonder why this was sprung on us at the last minute, though?
And if there are 27,000 wells in the Gulf, why isn't a "Sealing Cap" a required emergency response item, pre-built and ready to go?   82 days later?

I noticed the flange many weeks ago.   And opined that this could be used to bolt on a "blind flange" aka a blank off closure plate.  

In this video, the guy, right at the end mentions that "well integrity tests can be performed".   And that is the big fear....the well has lost its integrity, the oil is flowing directly into the sea bed or will erode the space around the 3 concentric pipes that comprise the well.   The result of that would be the entire 2.5 Billion Barrel Reserve would leak out.

There are plenty of lies going around on this one.   The public is not ready for the truth (that is probably true).   After all, if the general public knew the real risk these wells were putting us under, the "con-fidence" game which is costing trillions on a risky bet that we don't double dip, would be done.

View this video, take the time, you will understand alot more of what is going on.   But it will also raise alot of questions, like, why wasn't this done on day 2?

At the same time, nuclear power output is steadily decreasing from around 2005.   Probably because of the 1970's oil crisis, and the nukes are getting old.   Nuclear is "green" compared to oil, and thorium rocks!  Google it.

"Might as well face it, your addicted to crude" song to tune from Robert Palmer

Friday, July 9, 2010

It's is all bullish! Yeah! The bull is back!

Things just get curiouser and curiouser, perhaps they are intentionally pumping sentiment and stocks so that there is some room to fall early next week, when both the US and Greece need to sell a bunch of bonds (let sentiment and stocks fall....thus making a successful bond sales, which is bullish)    Heck!   It's all bullish!

In fact finding a bunch of spies in our homeland can also be bullish, especially if you market it right, see below about the efficient 4 for 10 spy exchange.

And I do have to say, the FDIC is very efficient at closing banks and getting all there i's dotted and t's crossed.   Especially on Friday afternoons, which is when all the closings are announced.   This type of efficiency is also bullish.
With all of this bullishness, I find it odd  AAII is listing very high bearishness.  GS and AA were downgraded for earnings expectations....hmmmm....seems like a ramp job intended there. 

It seems odd, very few bears this last decade even though it was a "lost decade" for stock market valuations.  However  in the 1990's -- the biggest ramp up in stock prices, people stayed bearish the whole decade!!!!!   I have proven it, even bearishness is bullish!

And you can download all the long term excel data on this survey, right here.  The chart is in there also.

Link to Steveo's Sentiment Data and Chart
And top officials are urged to resign, after speaking their minds, criticizing the administration about too much war.    Hmmm, wasn't there just a General was got sacked also?

As the can gets kicked down the road, as it getting closer to the end, the actions will be become more desperate, but also resulting in more power grabs (to fix things of course).   Eventually the business and social cycles will win out, but it could get darn ugly in the meantime.  PS Except for all the Bullishness, I see Bulls all the time!

Suposed story of BP stopping the leak Monday et al

BP and Oil Leak--there have been an amazing amount of stories about how the leak could be stopped early, now they are saying by Monday.    And they are admitting that there are at one other leak from the sea floor, which is the first time I heard that officially.

Bottom line? I figured this out last weekend, The piping system going one mile into the sea floor is compromised, if they back pressure that piping with a stronger shutoff or cap, they could blow up the piping and the adjoining sea bed.   This would make the leak only stoppable upon dumping of the reserve (2.5 Billion Barrels).   That is why, in my humble opinion, their stories have not been making sense and not in harmony with their actions.

Greece Selling (or trying to) 6 Month Bonds next Tuesday, first since the bailout.
Note--if stocks are falling, people will be more apt to buy bonds.

Intersting indicator site and Nanex

This Nanex site looked good, but I haven't had time to read it during the working and trading day.  This link is for an analysis of the Flash crash, improper reported of national best bid and offer, and HFT of up to 5000 bids per seconds on some equities, from the same exchange.   Casino Royale perhaps.

Mini Tank as Predicted last night

Well see how far this goes.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

3 Strikes "Eur" Out?

In a tin-foil hat moment, I am placing all my comments of relevance within the graphic, so that the trolling "Numerati" has one less piece of information to work with.

Support note broken, actually tested mutliple times

This could be bad news for the bears, new support around 1058 seems to be holding.

Below is from earlier in the morning.

On the daily, the gap was filled and looked like shooting candle.  Now it is more like a fat doji, which probably means nothing. 

Volume is quite low.

Opex is next week, Friday will setup up for Opex week of which M,Tu, W are the big mover days.  

And for the Astro freaks, there is a new moon and an eclipse this weekend.   Those freak people out.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010


Bear Squeeze - The same ol' tricks

I noted earlier in the day, see prior post, that the indices were all moving up exactly in unison.   I guess when Ben starts buying the market, he has to do it evenly or it would show favoritism.  

Finviz makes this very easy to see.   When you see this, and in bearish positions, you best take a few lumps and short again from a higher level.

Ellipse and Some New Tickers

I cleaned up my TOS watchlists, to declutter and help focus on some particular tickers of interest.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Double Post the Ellipse

The more I look at this, the more I am convinced this is extremely bearish.   The massive stop sweeping doji after the holiday weekend, after a 4% move on the holiday futures.  

This is extremely bearish.  I have been "playing" with about 10% total net worth, in trading accounts.   It is time to ramp this up and put all money "to work".

The Ellipse (not the Eclipse you Astro Freaks!)

Monday, July 5, 2010

It is not "the Bankers"

Short and Sweet--

This is not about "The Bankers"  It is about Humoungous Bank and Broker (HBB) and the obvious conflict of interests that are involved.  They were not bankers 4 years ago, now they are in order to get free money from taxpayers....slam dunk, hands down, don't over complicate this.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Declaration of Independence

I wanted to post this, and then found that Tim Knight had already done so, thanks Tim.   Repeating it here.  Keep in mind that this was "the Declaration", however, as you can see from my 10 minute history of the United States, the British were marauding through Washington and burned the White House as late as  1814.
IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.