Saturday, October 2, 2010

Just saying

Seems like everyone and their brother has discounted the chance of a P3 type event.

Perfect P2 behavior.....

And the flash crash has been "explained" by one big trade from Kansas City, yeah right Toto....their ain't no tornado coming.   Big Ben got your back covered.

So just saying.....this market is a laughable joke.   Can we make money on it? Perhaps.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

New ES PRS Channel with great line hits

I like this one, the trend is down, until it isn't, or the trend accelerates but breaking down through these lines.   And a quick backtest --just like the flash crash, is the perfect sign to ramp up your bet size.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Complete Lack of Comments Indicator

OK, this surely must be a top.   Quality posts, new powerful indicators, correlations, Forex analysis, better screen shots, less tin foil rant (maybe people like those).   And ZERO comments.   

Kind of tired of talking to myself, but the dearth of comments is actually a good indicator....this wave 2 has just wore people out.    Not me.

AUD and NZD massive spike

Check out this spike, that sure knocked out some stops.   Maybe that is a pre-cursor to a big drop.

AUD telegraphing the ES

Closed my intraday shorts when AUD hit this trendline.

Also, I had stated twice in the last week to different people, that maybe what the US ought to do is to pull back every gov and Military worker from oversees, close all the bases, offices, diplomatic venues. And just tell the world, that is the way it is going to be. If things don't go right and fair, we send the military, but otherwise, you are all on your own.

Then I saw spray painted on the back of a van on Oahu yesterday


We Broke"

Window Dressing and Resistance

Quick Thought.....

There has been alot of "Pomo me now" money spent to levitate this latest highly sloped rise.

Not sure is 3Q affect any bonuses or anything.   Maybe the "always bearish September" was just a great opportunity to ramp against the bears.  

Anyhow, there may not be enough POMO or HBB confidence to ramp this thing through the 1140 1150 resistance area, YET, they are not willing to let the lipstick fall off the pig until after the Quarter end so they can report good figures.  Window dressing.

Meanwhile, on the end of the Quarter, tomorrow, as if we needed to add yet another factor into the equation--

The Irish Gov will release their estimate of the cost to wind up the Anglo Irish Bank, previously estimated by others to run about $35B USD.   And for some reason, the Euro has had incredible broad based strength lately.

I have also been watching USD/NOK (Norwegian Krone) which moves interestingly in relation to ES at least recently, just put this on my radar.    It might be more of a dollar and oil play, I haven't researched it much.

See my FX screen on the TOS tab "Trade" great summary setup, way better than clicking back and forth between other full size pages.

And the end game....just like 2008 and into 2009, they will change the rules to "protect" the innocent babes in the woods, yeah right.   FX margin has been reduced by half.   So that  in my tin foil hat view, those who have watched and played can't profit as much from upcoming big moves.

Monday, September 27, 2010

AUD and Cable

Now that no one is talking about currencies, I expect them to come into play again....

The AUD and Cable are at important points.    Now that "everyone" knows the USD is toast, it could rally.   But I won't get too crazy on that line of thinking, EW style seems to point to more downside on the USD.

Shorted ES
Then went long on the AUD PRS 133 (sounds like a code no?), long ES that is --got stoppped out before a massive vertical run up....yes those late night MM's are still tricky the bastards.

 and then went short, and then set stop at break even, profit stop at $700 not to get greedy, and went to bed....the end.

Expect Shenanigans Don't Miss the Drops

RS Long and Overall View

One Trade Idea, RS.   Facing strong resistance and swatted down 1.5% today.   Nicely shaped IHS pattern though, Buy above 42, stop below 41, target 49, take half off the table at halfway =45 which would be a 10% gain.    Above 43.5, move stop to just below 42, since a backtest is likely.

And for the big picture, a Deadly Bearish Big Picture (to quote Bob Pretcher).   The charts below are from data I get from a Commitment of Traders guy who occasionally sends out emails.   They help keep things in perspective, which is important since so many media outlets are acting simply as cheerleaders rather than investigating and trying to fix the root cause of our fundamental problems.  

I remember in 1988, we were driving up north Wisconsin for a fishing/drinking/wrestling trip, and our car popped the radiator.   We had a church guy stop as we were trying to MacGyver some type of field fix, failing several times now.  Church guy did not offer any help, he just said "I don't know what kind of boys you are, but you just gotta have faith".   We all guffawed and I shot out -- "Sir, we got faith, for sure we are going to get to our cabin, what we really need is a new radiator".    Church guy leaves.

Another guy stops and after a quick discussion, says aw hell, you guys got another vehicle at your cabin in Crivitz, hell I'll take you there it is only 40 miles out of my way.......

Moral of the story--

The US is screwed because China ain't gonna drive us to the cabin, and faith alone ain't gonna get the job done.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Breakpoint Trades --14 Pages of Trades Setups Published on Sunday

Even though I see horrific fundamentals, extreme bullish complacency, and have an overall bearish view of the markets, I also enjoy making money with good individual stock trade setups.   

Since I won't be in the field tomorrow, I was looking forward to placing some trades that could pop a quick 6% to 10% gain, spurred on by expected Fed pumping and mass global insanity.

So I was real happy to see Breakpoint Trades publish 14 pages of trade setups--those guys work really hard, doing all that on a Sunday.  They have a free trial membership, but you don't get all the goodies, like the mechanical trading systems.   Their 6 month membership is the best deal at $240.00, my last trade on FEED already paid for that 3 times over.  

Seriously though, if you are trading---you need to be working on Sunday to be prepared, or just pay someone else to work on Sunday so you can leech off their hard work.  

If you do want to sign up for their service, please use the link on the left, as they will extend my membership, meaning that I can bring more value to this free blog.

Below idea from BPT Sunday

Tips and Tricks TOS

Does your trading software run slow sometimes, it might be as easy as cranking up the memory it is allowed to use. This is found on the thinkorswim log on page.

I wish my performance was as good as this from Breakpoint Trades, and Chart of Charts

Not exactly swing for the fence home runs, but extracting 6% to 15% seems like a plausible scenario.

I am in on the FEED long trade.   Check them out on the left side bar.

I would have to say, my bias is towards the long right now.   However, based on the Fall equinox last Wednesday, this would also be the last chance for a downturn based on moon.   Will put some stink ask price on my Nov QQQQ puts, and maybe get out at a profit.  

No other trading positions at this time, although long UNG (stupid), and some gold miners (smart) on much longer term "investments"

Quick Note

Are we at the edge of a P3 event?

Who knows, but this is clear--

Wallstreet is completely detached from mainstreet.
"They" ramp things in the opposite direction to catch as many people off guard as possible.  This is clear when correlations suddenly break down, which they have.

It is amazing that "stock value" is actually computed into what is presented as cumulative "wealth".

Think about that word, Wealth.   Stock prices are just an electronic blip, a fleeting data point with less mass than a thought.   But now that prices are up, suddenly the lie that wealth has increased is being pimped out by the Gov/Financial/Media complex.

Just over a decade ago, I thought this way--  That the stock market price reflected the wealth and strength of our nation.    This is how we are trained by the media and our financial "leaders / advisors".    It is false.

So in the last 2 weeks especially, that market is being ramped in the face of every other indicator showing the opposite.    How long can the insanity last?  Well look at 1999, it can last a long time.   Elections coming up could really be Dabama saying to his G-team....whatever, take $100B and ramp the futures and market indices....make sure people are happy by election day.

Here are some charts by darell, lots of ratio charts.