Seems like everyone and their brother has discounted the chance of a P3 type event.
Perfect P2 behavior.....
And the flash crash has been "explained" by one big trade from Kansas City, yeah right Toto....their ain't no tornado coming. Big Ben got your back covered.
So just saying.....this market is a laughable joke. Can we make money on it? Perhaps.
I have been short TNA for a very long time, probably in a 40% drawdown at the moment (I am well outside the average trader's pain threshold). Fortunately, the amount I'm trading is small enough that I don't care, and there's no possible chance of a margin call. Why am I not worried? Well, what you just posted, for starters, and check the Stocktiming institutional selling chart here:
ReplyDeletehttp://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2010/10/10012010-market-recap-is-11-up.html
There is a very high probability there will be a banking holiday over Christmas/New Years (although it could happen at any time, the reason for the holidays is because it will take them 6-11 days). Do not keep cash in a bank unless you want to give them 50% of it's value. You will have the 6-11 days the bank accounts are frozen to spend whatever physical cash you have on hand on whatever is available in the stores.
Also, I am very certain that the next swing low for gold will be $1264.00. This will be the last chance to get in before it all goes to Hell.
Physical bullion trusts (GTU, PHYS, CTF) might be relatively safe vehicles to ride this out.
If you make a mint off this info, I fully expect you to put me and the wife up in your guest bungalow in a few years. ; )
Good luck Steve!
Dnarby what is your theory on bank holiday?
ReplyDeleteI think they nationalize the 401K before that happens.
Check new post on COT summaries.
Re: 401ks, that's why I said "might be relatively safe". I'm not keeping much in those.
ReplyDeleteHere's the tip on the bank holiday (quote from Jim Willie in the middle) http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2010/08/august-242010-commentaryextremely.html
I have to admit you'll need to spell it out as if for a five year old with your COT post, do you follow this guy? http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/ he says they are bearish. Perhaps the SP outlook looks mixed to you because they are hedging?
I sometimes watch the cotstimer, but have not traded his system.
ReplyDeleteThe commercials, and really everyone, seem split long and short on this COT report.
http://screencast.com/t/ZThmOTkyZD
will review the Harvey blog