Cyclical Nature of Put/Call Ratio

I spent some time doing an anaylsis of
Specifically, the Put/Call ratio of the S&P 500 only

By calculating various moving averages, I came up with a very interesting cyclical result.   The cycles aren't perfectly uniform, and they are not "perfect" in repetition, but they are obvious.

Now the next question is: how could one make money off of this?    Drop a comment.

Taking volunteers to help with analysis.

Reluctant Long, Keep it simple at 200DMA

Cable break

The games continue but Cable looks rip for a drop, Euro already did.

Email from a Senator about the Debt Deal

Aloha! With less than a week until the deadline for raising the federal government’s debt ceiling, reaching a compromise is critical.  Failure would lead to a harmful downgrade in our nation's credit rating. This would cause higher interest rates on our federal debt and put Americans with a mortgage, car loan, student loan, or credit card at risk.

I am supporting Senator Reid’s compromise proposal. It would protect our nation’s credit rating by eliminating the possibility of default through the end of 2012. It makes necessary cuts to lower the deficit while protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These are the programs that seniors and other vulnerable citizens are depending on for survival.

While I would have preferred a bill that strikes a balance between raising revenues and cutting spending, in which all Americans contribute to the solution,  I commend the Majority Leader for working in good faith to reach a compromise.

For the latest news from my office, please visit my website which is updated daily. And please know that I always appreciate hearing your concerns and comments regarding the issues that face our state and our nation. Please contact me by clicking here.

Aloha pumehana,

U.S. Senator Daniel K. Akaka

www.facebook.com/danielakaka

twitter.com/senatorakaka

Grapes of Wrath, Great Depression 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpPSIF8zIHo

Watch the video, Grapes of Wrath, about 3 minutes in, is the scene where they are bulldozing people's homes because the people can't pay for them.   Yeah, makes sense.

Man, were they weird back in the 1930's, we have come along way from there.   Now we have Harvard Genius's leading the private banking system called the Federal Reserve.   

And they got it all figured out....bulldozing houses, perfectly good assets, while people live in their cars, or tents, or worse.

Note that in the movie, the guy with the rifle does not shoot the Bulldozer operator.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/orwell-watch-banks-put-a-happy-face-on-demolishing-foreclosed-homes.html

VOS and Fear Factor, my own Home Brew, no Kool-Aid

Moral of the Story?
First couple hits on the yellow are warmups--fakeouts, then Kansas go Bye-Bye, Red Pill or Blue Pill it don't matter.

These are DEFINITELY saying market tanks.    USD last chart says we could have a final dive, to blast equity bears, and then we head down.

 Gov Christie, seems like he is 90% on target.

Go long? Again? Piker Trader

Hey go visit Piker Trader.   When everyone in the blogosphere is jumping on some bandwagon, Piker is out there doing some independent thinking.  He even has a proprietary Piker Indicator that is showing time to enter longs, with a 42% annual rate of return, check out the stats.


http://www.pikertrader.com/


And some interesting Boatload O Indicators, indicating uncertainty, but I think this drop has legs, mostly because the put call remains low.   HBB wants to draw in some bear money before committing the capital to ramp this up.   Unless Dabama ponies up, so to speak.

4 of 5, 5 of 5 still to come?

 A possible count to finish Thursday as debt talks wrap up, WE HOPE!

Tuesday Longs and Thoughts on Default

All this talk of credit ratings and whether a defaullt COULD  occur is just amazing to me.

The US is continously defaulting on it's loans by printing money.    The USD index went from 95 to 73, in other words just a year ago, the USD was 30% stronger than today.  

That means the US has defaulted on 30% of it's debt, specifically harming those who work hard and save and invest.

Here are some long trades and rational basis shown in chart form:

Video on Rare Earth Stocks

LET ME KNOW IF YOU can view this video, of course I can since I am a member.

http://breakpointtrades.com/jing/2011-07-26_1039.swf

This just came on on the BPT blog, may be of interest to those getting interested in Rare Earths

Find a strong sector ---Check!
Find stocks with good technical patterns in that sector ---Check!

Pull the trigger   (consult your trusted financial advisor)

steveo

Even a blind pig occasionally finds a truffle MCP

I wrote this up yesterday, thinking a 5% to 10% move was possible, but sheesh, 5% all in one day!   I'll take, I was already long.

A tasty long trade in Rare Earth - MCP

To me the bearish sentiment is high.   Even the bears are thinking, just one more minor move up, and then Whammo, Rhoo Rhoo even a Scooby Snack won't fix this one.

Sure could be, in the past Dabama speaking is not really good.   Early in his presidency, Wallstreet taught him that if he didn't say the right thing, they just pull the bid and let the market fall under it's own weight.

But I think any reasonable sounding "deal" could result in a stress relief rally.    And some longs with good breakout and backtest patterns, in growth sectors (rare earths for upcoming batteries and energy technologies, esp. as China restricts their exports of rare earths), could get a nice 5% to 10% pop in just a matter of days or a week or two.  

However, don't follow my trade unless you have consulted your trusted accredited financial adviser.

Here is the result

A tasty long trade in Rare Earth - MCP

To me the bearish sentiment is high.   Even the bears are thinking, just one more minor move up, and then Whammo, Rhoo Rhoo even a Scooby Snack won't fix this one.

Sure could be, in the past Dabama speaking is not really good.   Early in his presidency, Wallstreet taught him that if he didn't say the right thing, they just pull the bid and let the market fall under it's own weight. 

But I think any reasonable sounding "deal" could result in a stress relief rally.    And some longs with good breakout and backtest patterns, in growth sectors (rare earths for upcoming batteries and energy technologies, esp. as China restricts their exports of rare earths), could get a nice 5% to 10% pop in just a matter of days or a week or two.   

However, don't follow my trade unless you have consulted your trusted accredited financial adviser.

Signs of the Times, Misplaced "Enforcement"

Last week I read about a mother who was convicted and sentenced to 5 years in jail for spanking one of her offspring.



Now here is another looking at 3 years in jail, AFTER her sons was killed by another car driver.   She was crossing the street with her son.    She wasn't in a cross walk.

http://www.parentdish.com/2011/07/25/mom-faces-3-years-in-jail-after-son-4-killed-while-jaywalking/?test=latestnews

Really, this stuff is far beyond belief.   Truly this is Elliot Wave type stuff where the society feels a need for "enforcement" because things haven't been happening correctly (thievery at high levels).   But instead, what happens, instead of going after the huge crimes being perpetrated on humanity, the minor powers that be go after the weak targets.    Both of these are mothers, one was a chubby Latina and this one is black.   Minor powers that be picking on the weakest minority women.



SEC and commodities regulators getting convictions on $2M to $10M Forex scammers.    I guess that gets a feather in their hat.  Again, going after the weak antelope, the nearly confirmed kills that can't possibly stab back.

Obama admits that Wallstreet is in charge

GLOBAL MARKET REPORT
“WALL STREET WILL BE OPENING ON MONDAY!”
That is a direct quote from President Obama’s “emergency” press conference on July 22. In the transcript
of the conference, the last question Mr Obama was asked was this: “What assurances can you give the
people on Wall Street ...who might find this news a bit alarming, perhaps?”
His exact response was this: “I think it’s very important that the leadership understands that Wall Street
will be opening on Monday and we better have some answers during the course of the next several days.”

Above from the Privateer

Translated---

We have to answer to Wall Street, they are the puppeteer.

Gold mechanical system

Everyone dreams of that swing for the fence ten bagger (10X) win on a quick option play or something like that.

It is more realistic to swing for second base, 50 times, and double your money in 2 years or so.   No guarantees of course.   But some of these swing systems, with maybe 20 trades a year, are easy to manage, don't take much time, have a good profit ratio and controlled drawdowns, can have automatic notifications via text message and email, and they don't cost that much.

I have been playing this one, I have 8 plays in my trading plan, this is one of them.

Check Breakpoint trades, the GDX Swing system comes automatic with membership.  $40/month, 6 month term.   Check them out.

http://breakpointtrades.com/

From the Privateer

I have read the Privateer in the past.   Good stuff.   No spin zone.  Kudos to Zerohedge for pointing this one out.

 

The Last Remission:

According to the official figures put out by the US government, the economic "recovery" in the US celebrated its second anniversary on June 30, 2011. The "fuel" burned in this "recovery" is immense. Mr Obama's presidency has ushered in the era of $US 1 TRILLION plus annual deficits riding on top of 0.00 percent controlling interest rates from the Fed. It has also ushered in the era in which almost nothing is traded on the paper markets which is not - explicitly or implicitly - guaranteed by the government.
The fuel to keep the global financial system functioning does not stop at the borders of the US. The "Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act" has just produced the first ever "audit" of the US central bank.

It reveals that in the period between December 2007 and July 2010, the Fed parcelled out $US 16.1 TRILLION in emergency loans to financial entities all over the world. Almost half of this - a total of $US 7.75 TRILLION - was loaned to four US banks. They were Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and the Bank of America.

In July 2010 (the cut off date for this "audit"), total US stock market capitalisation was $US 15 TRILLION.

The Fed provided about half of that (HT comment---in case not obvious, the ramp from 666 to 1332 - a double-- was 80% performed by jacking up futures in the off hours, using Fed funds handed to "bankers" who were really brokers that became banks for the sole purpose of allowing the Fed to hand money to them. ) 

This inflationary explosion is unprecedented in any era. It represents the biggest ever effort to rescue a debt-based system from the ravages caused by its own debt issuing excesses. It has, at best, provided a "remission" for global paper markets. The cost has been devastating for REAL economies everywhere.

A cancer patient who goes under the knife gets the malignant disease physically removed. If all traces of the malignancy are removed, the patient will recover. If all goes well, the recovery will be permanent with no "remissions". A life- threatening malignancy is NOT fought or cured by doing everything possible to increase its power and potency. Yet that is what financial authorities in the US and everywhere else have been doing in regard to the life blood of their economies. As this stark fact becomes ever clearer, Washington DC and Wall Street stand helpless before the fact that they can only cure the economy at the cost of killing the financial system which is feeding on it. It's that simple.

From: "INSIDE THE UNITED STATES"
©2011 - The Privateer market letter

HT: It will be very painful to remove the vampire squid from our faces and jugulars.

Earning Season, Busy Stock

Breakpoint Trades usually has one data table every Sunday, this one is earnings next week.

If holding any individual stocks, it is essential to know when earnings releases are.   Sometimes I choose to hold through earnings, but unless you really know something that others don't, this is really just gambling.   I go to Vegas to gamble.  I spend my time on market activities to make money, on a regular basis.   That is the goal at least.

The emotional high associated with a "win" by holding through earning might tell you something about yourself, such as the need for excitement from the market, or the occasional Pavlov's Monkey effect of intermittent reinforcement.   If you want to trade in the zone, these things MUST be eliminated.

If you have an addictive personality, and you can't institute control of your trading actions, you best go get a "real job".   

Long Euro, Long Cable, Long Nasdaq

Consification

On a post to a blogger comment, responding to my over concisification.

Sorry, I guess the "whatever" always sounds kind of bad, my bad.   I was trying to get across, in a concise way---

We know this market is manipulated, we know the brokers/bankers have captured the Gov, we know the powers that be have launched into an era of unprecedented greed with no regard for the consequences (they can't help themselves, they are on a wave 3 up of greed), we know they have copious combined information on peoples/hedges positions and sizes and stops.   We know that they know that there is no prosecution coming.   They have ability, motivation, and the green light from the Gov (actually not just the green light, the Gov gave them an NOS kit to add to their engine).  

And actually I don't read the market so well all the time, 65% is more than good enough.

That said, my only purpose is to bank coin.   The market has an endless number of qualities and infinite future paths that are not fully prescribed by similarities to the past.    It is true that I am never wrong, because I endeavor to never force my prediction on the market, although sometimes I must pay for information on market direction.

out.

Chart of Charts, A throwback to the past

I haven't made the chart of chart in over 9 months. It is a multi-headed monster for sure.

It uses chart pattern to analyze the state of the market, as well as number of stocks ready to breakout, which there are quite alot right now, that could be big or sustained move.

I have crossovers based on the 5, 10, and 20 day moving average of the number of stocks breaking bullish and breaking bearish. When they cross over, that triggers a change in a toggle Chart that I display all three of them (the 5 DMA crossover, the 10 DMA crossover, and the 20 DMA crossover).

One backtest I did showed that following the 5 DMA crossover would produce about 80% annual returns, the 20 DMA was around 35% annual return, and the 10DMA was the "whippiest" of the bunch and only returned around 24%, so the 10 DMA crossover is the least reliable.

Right now the 5DMA and 20DMA says bullish, and the number of stock perched on breakout is quote high.

For me personally, this makes me feel alot better with 4 long picks held through the weekend.

Chart of Charts is cool.

At the top is a scatter chart, which is interpreted as when very low number of stocks broken out, often a big move follows. Everything on these charts is saying big move, and most likely bullish.

Comments? Anyone remember the chart of charts from days of Yore?

Here is the main chart only --might be easier viewing